Perspectives on AI Timelines

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How many years will pass before transformative AI is built? Three people who have thought about this question a lot are Ajeya Cotra from Open Philanthropy, Daniel Kokotajlo from OpenAI and Ege Erdil from Epoch. Despite each spending at least hundreds of hours investigating this question, they still still disagree substantially about the relevant timescales. For instance, here are their median timelines for one operationalization of transformative AI:

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K2D45BNxnZjdpSX2j/ai-timelines

Narrated for LessWrong by Perrin Walker.

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