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19min chapter
[HUMAN VOICE] "AI Timelines" by habryka, Daniel Kokotajlo, Ajeya Cotra, Ege Erdil
LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
Debating AGI Timelines and Reality's Complexity
The chapter begins with a discussion on interpreting Hofstadter's Law and how it applies to AGI timelines. They debate different methods of updating timelines and explore the planning fallacy. The conversation shifts to summarizing the current disagreement and the challenges in figuring out AI systems before they are useful.
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