Ege Erdil

Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu, co-founders of Mechanize and former AI forecasters at Epoch AI, discuss the future of artificial intelligence and automation. They challenge the notion of an imminent intelligence explosion, proposing instead that economic growth will surge over the coming decades. The conversation explores the complexities of AI reasoning, the importance of innovative thinking in research, and the dual pathways of AI and economic development, emphasizing that societal values and human creativity will be vital in shaping this evolution.

Ege Erdil, a senior researcher at Epoch AI, dives deep into the fascinating realm of AI development and the new GATE model. He explores how evolution and brain efficiency shape our understanding of AGI requirements. Ege discusses the economic impacts of AI on labor markets and wages, highlighting which jobs are most vulnerable to automation. The conversation also touches on Moravec’s Paradox and the challenges of training complex AI models with long-term planning capabilities, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding AI timelines and future advancements.

Ajeya Cotra, Daniel Kokotajlo, and Ege Erdil, researchers in the field of AI, discuss their varying estimates for the development of transformative AI and explore their disagreements. They delve into concrete AGI milestones, discuss the challenges of LLM product development, and debate factors that influence AI timelines. They also examine the progression of AI models, the potential of AI technology, and the timeline for achieving super intelligent AGI.