Dwarkesh Podcast AGI is Still 30 Years Away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu
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Apr 17, 2025 
Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu, co-founders of Mechanize and former AI forecasters at Epoch AI, discuss the future of artificial intelligence and automation. They challenge the notion of an imminent intelligence explosion, proposing instead that economic growth will surge over the coming decades. The conversation explores the complexities of AI reasoning, the importance of innovative thinking in research, and the dual pathways of AI and economic development, emphasizing that societal values and human creativity will be vital in shaping this evolution.
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Beyond Intelligence Explosion
- The intelligence explosion framing is misleading; many factors beyond raw intelligence drive growth.
- AI progress will involve broad economic and technological changes similar to the Industrial Revolution.
Compute & Capability Scaling Limits
- Full automation of remote work likely requires multiple major capability unlocks, not just incremental progress.
- Compute scaling limits and complementing factors impede simplistic exponential extrapolations.
Agency Will Look Easier Later
- Recent AI advancements seem easy only with existing technological foundations built over years.
- Agency and autonomy in AI may currently seem difficult but could prove simpler in hindsight.