

Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I Part I [8.17.15]
Aug 17, 2015
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Introduction
00:00 • 5min
President Obama and the Search for Osama Bin Laden
05:19 • 6min
The Importance of Granular Probability Estimates in High Stakes National Security Debates
11:06 • 5min
The Importance of Attribution Substitution in Policy Forecasting
16:27 • 3min
The Role of Danny Friedman in Globalization Arguments
19:07 • 5min
The Disruptive Technology of Forecasting Tournaments
24:23 • 3min
The Importance of Honesty in Forecasting Tournaments
27:52 • 4min
The Complexity of Political Appointees
31:27 • 5min
The Role of Counterfactual Inference in Policy Debates
36:56 • 3min