Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I Part I [8.17.15]
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The Disruptive Technology of Forecasting Tournaments
Pundits use vague verbiage quantifiers of uncertainty that could mean anything from 0.1 to 0.9. This means that it's virtually impossible to assess the empirical track record of Tom Friedman, and Tom Friedman is by no means alone. Forecasting tournaments require people to attach explicit probabilities to well-defined outcomes so you can keep score. A small number of people were willing to participate if they could be totally anonymous, but a 90% plus turn it down.
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