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Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I Part I [8.17.15]

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The Role of Danny Friedman in Globalization Arguments

Danny Cevallos: Why is it that we know so much about Bill Flack's forecasting record and so little about Tom Friedman's? He says there are a lot of reasons for believing what the attribution substitution heuristic is. You take a really hard question like his Tom Abetter forecaster, And then you act as though the answer to the easier question is also an answer to the harder question. So it's quite possible that Tom Friedman is a better forecaster, which, excuse me, Bill Flack is a betterForecaster.

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