Philip Tetlock - EDGE Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting, Class I Part I [8.17.15]
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The Importance of Honesty in Forecasting Tournaments
A number of journals have written about the work, but no one has been hostile toward it. The intelligence community is held responsible for missing 9-11 and overestimating weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. "We're trying to improve our hit rate without simultaneously degrading our resistance to false positives," he says.
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