Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

In this podcast, Professor Chris Rauh discusses the challenges of predicting conflicts, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between conflict prevention and predicting the first outbreak. He also explores the use of AI and machine learning, such as topic modeling, to predict conflicts using news stories. Additionally, he shares insights on his research on parenting styles and their impact on children's development. The episode concludes with advice for students transitioning into the real world and recommendations for books that have influenced the speakers.

John Floyd, former Head of Macro Strategies and Chairman/CIO of Floyd Plus Currency Fund, discusses finding asymmetric returns, dealing with losses, meta lessons from 2023, risks and differentiation between US and China, trades, personal investment advice, finding passion, embracing non-traditional sources, influential books on markets, and ways to stay connected.

Niall Ferguson discusses historical analysis, the new conflict on AI and quantum, geological risks, Cold War II, India's position in relation to China and the US, geopolitical risks and potential crises, and the shift in culture at universities.

Bilal Hafeez, CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive, discusses the biggest surprises of 2023, the importance of covering oil and China, and understanding the drivers of US growth. The podcast also explores recent changes in the Bank of Japan, the correlation between equities and bonds, and interesting developments and outlook for 2024. Additionally, the speaker provides analysis and predictions for 2024, focusing on Grace One analysis and the significance of AI. The podcast concludes with a discussion on violence, movie recommendations, and anime series.

Liang Ding, currency strategist, China economist, portfolio manager, and quant analyst, discusses the state of the Chinese economy in 2023, challenges faced by migrant workers, China's housing market shift, and the economic outlook for next year.

Shiloh Bates, CIO of Flat Rock Global, discusses everything about CLOs, from definitions to their performance. He shares his career journey, explains cash flow in bankruptcy, and differentiates CLOs from HY bonds. Bates also talks about writing a book on CLO investing and the benefits of reading practitioner-authored books.

Yesha Yadav, Associate Dean and Professor of Law at Vanderbilt University, discusses crypto bankruptcies, regulation and enforcement risks, the impact of AI on financial markets, and the role of stablecoins and CBDCs. The podcast also explores bankruptcy courts' role, the use of enforcement actions, vulnerabilities in the US Treasury market, and ends with a casual conversation on TV show recommendations.

Greg Lippmann, known for predicting the subprime crisis, talks about his journey in the banking industry, fascination with positive convexity trades, managing risk in securitized markets, and shares investment advice and influential books.

Charlie McElligott, leading expert on positioning, flow, sentiment, and quant factors, discusses low real yields, recent market correction, and unconventional health techniques like sauna therapy and dietary approaches for improving health.

Dr. Douglas Greenig, CEO, CIO, and founder of Florin Court Capital, discusses trend-following, volatility scaling, diversification, and the challenges of trading in diverse markets. He also explores the decline of the US as a global superpower, the rise of China, and the potential growth trajectory of Africa in the US-China relationship.