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Ep. 214: Lindsay Politi on Higher Inflation Regime, Recession Risks and Debt Dynamics

May 3, 2024

Lindsay Politi, Head of Inflation Strategies at One River Asset Management, discusses shifts in sentiment towards inflation in Q1, goods vs services inflation, PCE vs CPI measures, and the impact of hiking cycles on the economy. They also delve into recession risks, bond yields, debt dynamics, global economic concerns, and reflections on technology.

30:41

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Episode guests

Lindsay Politi

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Services inflation drives overall inflation rates with a stable outlook, while goods inflation remains minimal.

Fed favors PCE inflation over CPI to reflect technological advancements and economic factors accurately.

Deep dives

Inflation Trends and Sentiment

Core inflation has been consistently around 4% with services inflation trending at 5%, directly impacting the overall inflation rates. The sentiment around inflation has shifted, with a more stable medium to long-term outlook. Decades of data suggest goods inflation at zero and services inflation driving price hikes.

Introduction

2min

In-Depth Analysis of Current Inflation Trends and Economic Factors

3min

Analyzing Inflation Measures and Economic Indicators

17min

Analysis of Bond Yields and Debt Dynamics

4min

Economic Risks and Global Concerns

4min

Reflections on Technology and Closing Remarks

2min

Lindsay Politi is Head of Inflation Strategies at One River Asset Management. Lindsay began her career at Wellington Management in Boston where she was head of Global Inflation-linked Investments. In that role she was one of the top TIPS managers by assets, managing over $10 billion in dedicated assets, with a top quintile track record for excess in her peer group. She then joined Tudor Investment Corporation in Greenwich as a discretionary macro investor, translating her inflation strategy onto a macro hedge fund platform. She then joined One River Asset Management in 2018. In this podcast we discuss how sentiment rather than actual inflation trend shifted in Q1, goods vs services inflation, PCE vs CPI inflation, and much more.

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