Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Phil Suttle, founder of Suttle Economics and seasoned global economist, dives into the complexities of today's economic landscape. He discusses anomalies in the US labor market, attributing issues to declining immigrant flows. Trump’s populist policies, surprisingly influenced by Elizabeth Warren's ideas, are critically analyzed. Suttle also tackles the productivity mystery, speculating on AI's role, and examines geopolitical risks affecting global business. With sticky inflation on the horizon, he forecasts potential rate rises and the extreme volatility of oil prices.

In this conversation, Robert Koenigsberger, Founder and CIO of Gramercy, shares insights from his 36 years of experience in emerging markets. He explores the shift from caution to FOMO in EM, highlighting a role reversal with developed markets post-COVID. Robert critiques misleading EM labels and identifies selective investment opportunities in distressed Chinese property. He discusses the strategic approach to Russian and Ukrainian bonds and emphasizes the burgeoning potential in EM private credit, drawing parallels to early DM lending.

In this insightful conversation, Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory and former top-ranked strategist at Morgan Stanley, breaks down his 'Tripolar World' concept, highlighting regional integration across Asia, Europe, and the Americas. He explores the current global growth cycle driven by AI, defense, and climate initiatives. Jay contrasts the AI strategies of the US and China, emphasizing the shift to power costs as the competitive edge. He also discusses the renewables boom in Brazil and Spain, and why today’s market differs significantly from the 2000 dot-com bubble.

In this conversation, Ken Tropin, Chairman of Graham Capital Management, shares his insights as a veteran macro investor. He emphasizes the need for a conservative investment philosophy while adapting to the rise of AI and quantitative strategies. Ken highlights the U.S. term premium as a key underpriced trade amidst concerns about deficits. He discusses global central bank divergence, geopolitical risks, and the importance of disciplined talent recruitment. Additionally, he offers career advice for young professionals navigating an evolving landscape.

Sangeet Paul Choudary, a best-selling author and platform strategist, explores the transformative nature of AI beyond mere automation. He discusses how AI serves as a system-level recoordination tool, reshaping industries by improving institutional knowledge and reducing unnecessary meetings. Sangeet contrasts successful companies like Shutterstock with failures like Kodak, emphasizing the need for businesses to reinvent themselves rather than just adopt new tools. He also highlights the importance of understanding algorithmic economies and nurturing agency in the workforce.

David Dredge, Chief Investment Officer of Convex Strategies, shares insights from over 30 years in volatility investing. He critiques traditional Sharpe-focused risk assessments, emphasizing the importance of geometric compounding and positive convexity in portfolios. Dredge discusses the perils of relying on simplistic math, advocates for active management of initial conditions, and highlights the risks of leverage in both public and private markets. He also warns about complacency in market conditions and recommends strategic positioning for better long-term outcomes.

Join Marc Rubinstein, an expert in financial services and author of the Net Interest newsletter, as he dives into the turbulent world of finance. He draws fascinating parallels between the current AI boom and historical bubbles. Rubinstein also highlights the risks tied to private credit growth and discusses how Jane Street leverages technology for trading success. Explore the challenges fintech faces and how AI may disrupt entry-level jobs in finance. His insights are informed by years in hedge funds and a deep understanding of market history.

Mark Farrington, a global macro and geopolitical strategist, shares insights on the enduring dominance of the US dollar and China's strategic shift towards gold. He discusses the complexities of China's supply chain strategies and its challenges in internationalizing the RMB. Farrington delves into the evolution of US industrial policy, emphasizing self-sufficiency, and explores the fragility of Europe amid potential crises triggered by inflation and volatility. He also touches on the implications of AI on future job markets and offers career advice for new graduates.

In this chat, David Samra, Managing Director at Artisan Partners and value investing expert, dives into the art of identifying good businesses through Economic Value Added. He shares insights on the critical difference between strong and weak management teams and how innovation erodes traditional competitive moats. David emphasizes the importance of shareholder activism and navigating large asset bases in search of opportunities. Plus, he explores the potential pitfalls of AI investments and offers sage advice for budding investors.

Miguel Gutiérrez, Partner at The Rohatyn Group, shares insights from his extensive career in emerging markets. He discusses Argentina's economic transformation under Milei’s reforms, focusing on fiscal cuts and competitiveness. Gutiérrez emphasizes the importance of U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations and how nearshoring impacts investment strategies. He explores private market dynamics in Latin America, highlighting opportunities across tech and energy sectors, while advising young professionals on the benefits of international experience.