Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez cover image

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Latest episodes

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10 snips
Feb 7, 2025 • 1h

Ep. 254: Jonny Matthews on US Economy and Why the Fed Will Not Cut in 2025

Jonny Matthews, Senior Portfolio Manager at Fortem Capital and creator of SuperMacro, shares his journey from engineering to finance and insights from his time at Salomon Brothers and Brevan Howard. He discusses the potential for low growth and high inflation in 2025, the challenges facing the S&P 500, and AI's impact on productivity and equity returns. Matthews also analyzes global economic conditions in Germany, Japan, and China while offering practical advice for aspiring finance professionals navigating today's complex market landscape.
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16 snips
Jan 31, 2025 • 44min

Ep. 253: Barry Eichengreen on Trump Trade Policy, Dollar Status and Debt Crises

Barry Eichengreen, a UC Berkeley economics and political science professor and former IMF advisor, dives into pressing macroeconomic issues. He discusses the current inflation regime and the crucial independence of central banks under political pressure. The conversation shifts to Trump's trade policy, including tariffs and their historical context, alongside the U.S.-China tech rivalry and its security implications. Eichengreen also explores the dollar's status as a reserve currency and the impacts of U.S. debt on economic stability.
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8 snips
Jan 24, 2025 • 46min

Ep. 252: Jay Pelosky on How US Equities Could Underperform Rest of the World

Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory and a veteran with over 35 years in financial markets, shares insights on the shifting dynamics among the U.S., Europe, and Asia. He discusses the potential underperformance of U.S. equities compared to global markets amid evolving economic landscapes. The conversation also touches on the implications of fiscal policies and geopolitical factors on investments. Humorously intersecting sports and politics, Pelosky emphasizes the importance of seeking underpriced opportunities globally, especially in AI and energy sectors.
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Jan 17, 2025 • 47min

Ep. 251: Phil Suttle on Fed Hiking in 2025

Phil Suttle, founder of Suttle Economics and former senior executive at top financial institutions, shares valuable insights into macroeconomic trends. He discusses the potential economic policies under a new Trump administration, including the impact of tariffs and immigration on labor supply. Suttle analyzes US productivity recovery post-pandemic and the myths around deregulation. He also examines fiscal challenges and contrasting economic performances in Europe while addressing upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
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Jan 10, 2025 • 29min

Ep. 250: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Non-Consensus View on Fed and Trump 2.0

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Chief US economist and macro strategist with a rich background at Bridgewater and the IMF, shares her insights on the evolving economic landscape. She analyzes how Trump 2.0 diverges from his first term, emphasizing key policies to watch. Dwor-Frecaut discusses the misconceptions around US growth and the role of inflation in today’s economy. She also delves into congressional fiscal plans and the potential for rapid legislative shifts, highlighting the impact of these dynamics on economic stability.
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27 snips
Jan 3, 2025 • 43min

Ep. 249: Mark Rzepczynski on Wicked Markets and Understanding Risk

Mark Rzepczynski, Managing Member and CEO of AMPHI Research and Trading, shares his 40 years of finance expertise, discussing the crucial balance between systematic and discretionary trading. He delves into the complexities of risk versus uncertainty and the challenges posed by financial models in turbulent markets. Highlighting risk premium strategies, he explores the importance of adapting to changing conditions. Rzepczynski also reflects on influential literature that enhances decision-making, stressing the value of intuition over conventional approaches.
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8 snips
Dec 27, 2024 • 44min

Ep. 248: Shawn Edwards on How Bloomberg Is Using AI (Replay)

In this engaging conversation, Shawn Edwards, Bloomberg’s Chief Technology Officer with a rich background at IBM and Bear Stearns, dives into the intersection of AI and finance. He discusses his journey from hardware to software and the pivotal lessons learned along the way. Shawn emphasizes pragmatic innovation in tech management and highlights how AI, especially Bloomberg GPT, is revolutionizing data analysis and sentiment measurement. He also shares invaluable advice for young graduates about mastering their craft and embracing lifelong learning.
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24 snips
Dec 20, 2024 • 43min

Ep. 247: Julia Azari on Trump’s Second Term, Constraints and Priorities

Julia Azari, a Political Science Professor at Marquette University and contributor to major outlets, dives into the political dynamics surrounding Trump's potential second term. She discusses the implications of recent election results on the GOP's evolution and Trump's executive powers. Azari highlights the tension between Congress and Trump's administration, the ambitious immigration proposals facing bureaucratic hurdles, and the shift in tariff policies that challenge traditional Republican ideals. The impact of changing presidential mandates within racial dynamics is also explored.
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16 snips
Dec 13, 2024 • 1h 1min

Ep. 246: Tomasz Nadrowski on Navigating Global Chaos

Tomasz Nadrowski, a seasoned portfolio manager at Amvest Capital with over 25 years in mining investments, shares his insights on navigating today's chaotic global landscape. He delves into the implications of a potential second Trump administration on U.S. foreign policy and international relationships, particularly concerning Russia and Ukraine. The discussion extends to Middle East tensions and Israel's military strategies. Additionally, Tomasz offers career advice emphasizing the value of specialized expertise in making strategic investment decisions.
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16 snips
Dec 6, 2024 • 54min

Ep. 245: Frank Kelly on Why Everyone Underestimates Trump

Frank Kelly, Founder of Fulcrum Macro Advisors and former White House writer, discusses the evolving landscape of American politics, likening Trump to Reagan. He argues that Trump’s influence is underestimated, predicting his 2024 victory as 'Trump 4.0'. The conversation dives into trade policy dynamics, immigration challenges, and the potential impact on the Federal Reserve. Kelly shares insights on geopolitics under Trump and offers career advice for young professionals, bringing a wealth of experience from his time in public service and the financial sector.

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