Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Sangeet Paul Choudary, a best-selling author and platform strategist, explores the transformative nature of AI beyond mere automation. He discusses how AI serves as a system-level recoordination tool, reshaping industries by improving institutional knowledge and reducing unnecessary meetings. Sangeet contrasts successful companies like Shutterstock with failures like Kodak, emphasizing the need for businesses to reinvent themselves rather than just adopt new tools. He also highlights the importance of understanding algorithmic economies and nurturing agency in the workforce.

David Dredge, Chief Investment Officer of Convex Strategies, shares insights from over 30 years in volatility investing. He critiques traditional Sharpe-focused risk assessments, emphasizing the importance of geometric compounding and positive convexity in portfolios. Dredge discusses the perils of relying on simplistic math, advocates for active management of initial conditions, and highlights the risks of leverage in both public and private markets. He also warns about complacency in market conditions and recommends strategic positioning for better long-term outcomes.

Join Marc Rubinstein, an expert in financial services and author of the Net Interest newsletter, as he dives into the turbulent world of finance. He draws fascinating parallels between the current AI boom and historical bubbles. Rubinstein also highlights the risks tied to private credit growth and discusses how Jane Street leverages technology for trading success. Explore the challenges fintech faces and how AI may disrupt entry-level jobs in finance. His insights are informed by years in hedge funds and a deep understanding of market history.

Mark Farrington, a global macro and geopolitical strategist, shares insights on the enduring dominance of the US dollar and China's strategic shift towards gold. He discusses the complexities of China's supply chain strategies and its challenges in internationalizing the RMB. Farrington delves into the evolution of US industrial policy, emphasizing self-sufficiency, and explores the fragility of Europe amid potential crises triggered by inflation and volatility. He also touches on the implications of AI on future job markets and offers career advice for new graduates.

In this chat, David Samra, Managing Director at Artisan Partners and value investing expert, dives into the art of identifying good businesses through Economic Value Added. He shares insights on the critical difference between strong and weak management teams and how innovation erodes traditional competitive moats. David emphasizes the importance of shareholder activism and navigating large asset bases in search of opportunities. Plus, he explores the potential pitfalls of AI investments and offers sage advice for budding investors.

Miguel Gutiérrez, Partner at The Rohatyn Group, shares insights from his extensive career in emerging markets. He discusses Argentina's economic transformation under Milei’s reforms, focusing on fiscal cuts and competitiveness. Gutiérrez emphasizes the importance of U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations and how nearshoring impacts investment strategies. He explores private market dynamics in Latin America, highlighting opportunities across tech and energy sectors, while advising young professionals on the benefits of international experience.

Gordon Hanson, a Harvard expert on labor markets and globalization, dives into America’s longstanding obsession with manufacturing. He discusses how manufacturing jobs have historically paid well for non-college workers and the regional inequalities stemming from factory closures. Hanson explores the debate on whether deindustrialization results from globalization or automation, and highlights the potential of non-manufacturing sectors like construction and healthcare to create good jobs. He also advocates for targeted local policies over tariffs for economic revitalization.

Paul Cavey, a seasoned China economist with 25 years of experience and founder of East Asia Econ, shares his insights on pressing regional issues. He dives into the recent escalations in the US-China trade war, evaluating China’s strategic leverage. Discussing the potential for Japanification in China, he contrasts it with Japan's past. Paul highlights China's two-speed economy, the nuanced implications of its bad debts, and the outlook for Japan's currency. He also warns about Taiwan's dependence on semiconductors and compares South Korea's risks to Japan's.

Shiloh Bates, Partner and CIO at Flat Rock Global, brings two decades of experience in CLO and private credit investing. He shares insights on the rapid growth of private credit, noting its appealing yields and lower volatility. Bates also delves into the trends of covenant-lite lending and how it impacts credit agreements. He discusses the industry concentration in CLOs, primarily in tech and healthcare, alongside how refinancing and defaults shape CLO returns. Additionally, he explains the implications of Fed easing on the market and what investors should keep an eye on.

Diane Coyle, Bennett Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge and author of 'The Measure of Progress', dives into the flaws of GDP measurement. She discusses the overlooked digital economy and free services, highlighting how traditional metrics fail to capture productivity in modern sectors. Coyle suggests innovative methods, like time-use surveys and alternative data sources, to enhance economic measurement. She argues for a broader view of progress that includes sustainability and human capital, urging policymakers to focus on actionable metrics.