Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Mikihiro Matsuoka, Chief Economist at SBI Securities and a veteran Japan macro specialist, offers sharp takes on Japan's inflation puzzle and the Bank of Japan's likely policy path. He discusses the weak yen, fiscal vulnerability, nominal GDP targeting versus inflation targeting, wage and labor-hour dynamics, and how remote work, AI-driven capex, and tax choices shape Japan's outlook.

Stefan Jansen, founder of Applied AI and author of Machine Learning for Trading, advises firms on data and AI strategy. He discusses agentic AI and LLMs for idea generation and coding. He covers ML workflows for trading, synthetic data and fat tails, Shapley values for model diagnostics, RAG and provenance, and where reinforcement learning fits in finance.

William W. Beach, former Commissioner of Labor Statistics and current Senior Fellow in Economics, offers a compact tour of fiscal risks and labor shifts. He discusses the US fiscal precipice, crowding out of private investment, Social Security’s narrowing window, tax system flaws, payroll tax regressivity, AI’s potential to augment labor, and ways to modernize federal statistics.

Martin Wolf, FT chief economics commentator and CBE, brings authoritative macro perspective. He frames AI as a potentially colossal general-purpose technology. He explores who wins and loses from tech revolutions, AI’s accountability and safety risks, central banking challenges and leadership tradeoffs, and worrying trends in democracy and youth prospects.

Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisers and former Bain Capital/Bridgewater investor, discusses private equity's evolution and why allocations became crowded. He examines private credit's hidden risks and the adjusted EBITDA trap. He frames AI as a capital-intensive boom-bust cycle and warns about crowded AI and small-cap growth exposures.

Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, brings a market-economist lens to US macro, Fed policy, and cross-market themes. He outlines his four-pillar framework for the US outlook. He discusses why the Fed is likely to stay put, AI-driven capex and wealth effects, RSU timing and state tax impacts, and the debate over a genuine productivity boom.

Dirk Willer, Citi Research MD and global macro strategist and author, explains how to trade macro regimes and pick the right asset. He outlines a nearest-neighbour regime framework, why PMIs matter, and how yield curve inversions and term premia influence timing. He also covers bubble signals, using credit as an equity canary, a four-indicator dollar model, and when to trust human judgment over models.

Dylan Smith, founder of arcMacro and former Goldman Sachs economist, advises on macro and private markets. He discusses the Hormuz supply shock and why energy disruptions lift core inflation. He outlines a stagflationary base case and AI-driven CapEx sustaining US growth. He also covers private market evolution, rising private credit defaults, and how secondaries and operational playbooks are changing exits.

Shawn Edwards, Bloomberg's CTO and former fixed-income trader, discusses engineering trust in AI with entailment and validators. He explores automating the Bloomberg Way, reimagining the Terminal via a conversational ASB, and making messy alternative data actionable. He also covers empowering non-programmers, an API-first strategy, and a cautious stance on AGI.

Andrew Perry, macro researcher and creator of Macro Pillars with 35+ years in markets, shares his five-pillar global macro framework and liquidity-focused toolbox. He walks through the MOVE index, non-traditional liquidity and market plumbing. He flags Australia’s macro risks, supply-to-demand shock dynamics, critical dates that move markets, and his high-conviction trade themes.