Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 335: Marc Rubinstein on AI Bubble, Private Credit, Jane Street Rise
13 snips
Nov 20, 2025 
Join Marc Rubinstein, an expert in financial services and author of the Net Interest newsletter, as he dives into the turbulent world of finance. He draws fascinating parallels between the current AI boom and historical bubbles. Rubinstein also highlights the risks tied to private credit growth and discusses how Jane Street leverages technology for trading success. Explore the challenges fintech faces and how AI may disrupt entry-level jobs in finance. His insights are informed by years in hedge funds and a deep understanding of market history.
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AI As An Infrastructure-Style Boom
- AI resembles past infrastructure booms like railroads and telecoms, where upfront capex exceeded short-term revenues.
- Society often benefits long-term from such booms despite near-term market excesses.
1907 Parallel: Non-Bank Growth Risk
- The 1907 crisis shows non-bank growth can become systemically dangerous when banks indirectly fund them.
- Private credit and asset managers mirrored trust companies' regulatory arbitrage since 2008, raising systemic concerns.
Treat Rapid Credit Growth As A Warning
- Monitor super-normal lending growth as an early warning sign for credit risk.
- Watch underwriting standards, opacity, and leverage in private credit to gauge vulnerability.
