Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Ep. 216: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Inflation Persistence, Immigration Surge and Trump Effect

May 17, 2024

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Chief US economist, discusses inflation persistence, weak financial tightening transmission, recession likelihood, and more. Topics include two regime model of inflation, challenges of predicting inflation dynamics, analyzing immigration surge, legal framework, impact on economy, and potential election outcomes on fiscal policies.

38:30

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Episode guests

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Inflation stabilization linked to energy prices, signaling regime shift.

Comparison between recent and 1980s disinflation trends affecting inflation expectations.

Monetary tightening challenges in US economy due to strong balance sheets and wealth distribution.

Deep dives

Surprise at Inflation Stabilization

The podcast discusses the surprising stabilization of inflation this year, contrasting it with the sharp drop in inflation seen previously. The guest mentions being taken by surprise by the sudden halt in the inflation decline due to energy prices stabilizing. Looking back, their framework for inflation seems to have aligned with the regime view, highlighting the importance of signals like energy prices in driving overall price stability.

Introduction

3min

Analyzing Recent Disinflation and Economic Landscape Challenges

5min

Analysis of Immigration Surge and Legal Framework

4min

Impact of Immigration and Election Outcomes on Economy and Policy

10min

US Economic Growth Amidst Uncertainties

14min

Reflecting on TV Shows and Nostalgia in Entertainment

3min

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode covers the two regime model of inflation, that financial tightening transmission is much weaker, why there is no recession, and much more.

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