Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Thanos is the Founder and CIO of ABP Invest, which he founded in 2015. He began his career as an Economist for the UK Government Economic Service through the Civil Service Fast Stream during the ERM Crisis of 1992. Thanos then embarked on a 20-year asset management career with CSFB Investment Management (Credit Suisse) and Investec Asset Management (Ninety-One) managing assets across fixed income, emerging markets, multi-asset and currency management. In this podcast, we discuss Russia-Ukraine and Trump vs EU, whether Europe can step up, US vs China, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

Randy Schwimmer, Vice Chairman of Churchill Asset Management, shares his expertise in private credit and capital markets. He discusses the current macroeconomic landscape's impact on private credit, highlighting trends in service-oriented businesses and the significance of free cash flow. The conversation delves into deal activity, M&A, and LBO complexities, while also addressing how direct lending managers adapt to interest rate fluctuations. Additionally, Schwimmer touches on the transformative role of AI in portfolio management within private equity.

Joe Lavorgna, a prominent Wall Street economist and former Chief Economist in the Trump administration, shares his insights on economic strategies from inside the White House. He discusses how Trump's policies on tariffs and immigration aimed to supercharge growth. Lavorgna also reflects on the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve post-COVID and the contrasting economic conditions in China and Japan. His career advice emphasizes the importance of intellectual curiosity and the impact of classic investment literature in navigating finance.

Max Stier, President and CEO of the Partnership for Public Service, shares his extensive experience in federal government. He discusses the complexities of presidential transitions and emphasizes why tearing down government structures is counterproductive. Stier critiques current government reform initiatives, advocating for merit-based systems to combat inefficiency. He also offers valuable advice for new graduates pursuing public service careers, emphasizing the importance of passion and collaboration. Lastly, he highlights influential reads that shaped his commitment to civil service.

Chris Johnson, President and CEO of China Strategies Group and former CIA analyst, shares his insights on the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations. He discusses how Trump's trade policies contrasted with Biden's approach, including critiques of China's economic coercion strategies. Johnson also highlights internal challenges Xi Jinping faces, such as public discontent. Additionally, he explores China's DeepSeek AI advancements and their implications on global tech, emphasizing how these shifts influence geopolitical strategies and economic engagements, particularly in the Middle East.

Jonny Matthews, Senior Portfolio Manager at Fortem Capital and creator of SuperMacro, shares his journey from engineering to finance and insights from his time at Salomon Brothers and Brevan Howard. He discusses the potential for low growth and high inflation in 2025, the challenges facing the S&P 500, and AI's impact on productivity and equity returns. Matthews also analyzes global economic conditions in Germany, Japan, and China while offering practical advice for aspiring finance professionals navigating today's complex market landscape.

Barry Eichengreen, a UC Berkeley economics and political science professor and former IMF advisor, dives into pressing macroeconomic issues. He discusses the current inflation regime and the crucial independence of central banks under political pressure. The conversation shifts to Trump's trade policy, including tariffs and their historical context, alongside the U.S.-China tech rivalry and its security implications. Eichengreen also explores the dollar's status as a reserve currency and the impacts of U.S. debt on economic stability.

Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory and a veteran with over 35 years in financial markets, shares insights on the shifting dynamics among the U.S., Europe, and Asia. He discusses the potential underperformance of U.S. equities compared to global markets amid evolving economic landscapes. The conversation also touches on the implications of fiscal policies and geopolitical factors on investments. Humorously intersecting sports and politics, Pelosky emphasizes the importance of seeking underpriced opportunities globally, especially in AI and energy sectors.

Phil Suttle, founder of Suttle Economics and former senior executive at top financial institutions, shares valuable insights into macroeconomic trends. He discusses the potential economic policies under a new Trump administration, including the impact of tariffs and immigration on labor supply. Suttle analyzes US productivity recovery post-pandemic and the myths around deregulation. He also examines fiscal challenges and contrasting economic performances in Europe while addressing upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Chief US economist and macro strategist with a rich background at Bridgewater and the IMF, shares her insights on the evolving economic landscape. She analyzes how Trump 2.0 diverges from his first term, emphasizing key policies to watch. Dwor-Frecaut discusses the misconceptions around US growth and the role of inflation in today’s economy. She also delves into congressional fiscal plans and the potential for rapid legislative shifts, highlighting the impact of these dynamics on economic stability.