Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 250: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Non-Consensus View on Fed and Trump 2.0
Jan 10, 2025
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, Chief US economist and macro strategist with a rich background at Bridgewater and the IMF, shares her insights on the evolving economic landscape. She analyzes how Trump 2.0 diverges from his first term, emphasizing key policies to watch. Dwor-Frecaut discusses the misconceptions around US growth and the role of inflation in today’s economy. She also delves into congressional fiscal plans and the potential for rapid legislative shifts, highlighting the impact of these dynamics on economic stability.
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Trump 2.0 vs. 1.0
- Trump 2.0 seems better prepared than Trump 1.0, but his exact plans remain uncertain.
- Key policy uncertainties include the budget deficit and tariffs.
Immigration Policy
- Trump is more likely to focus on clamping down on new immigration than mass deportations.
- This is because mass deportations are logistically and legally challenging, and could alienate key voters.
US Growth Outlook
- US growth optimism is partly justified by strong data and productivity gains, but demographics pose a headwind.
- Reduced immigration and an aging population will likely slow payroll growth, moderating overall growth.