Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 251: Phil Suttle on Fed Hiking in 2025
Jan 17, 2025
Phil Suttle, founder of Suttle Economics and former senior executive at top financial institutions, shares valuable insights into macroeconomic trends. He discusses the potential economic policies under a new Trump administration, including the impact of tariffs and immigration on labor supply. Suttle analyzes US productivity recovery post-pandemic and the myths around deregulation. He also examines fiscal challenges and contrasting economic performances in Europe while addressing upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
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Trump 2.0 Policy Prediction
- Trump's policies are uncertain, but he tends to act on what he says.
- Prepare for "Trump at face value," focusing on protectionism and "America First."
Tariff Impact on US Economy
- Trump's tariff plan combines protectionism with a flawed public finance idea.
- Higher import taxes will increase U.S. goods prices, impacting inflation.
Universal Tariffs vs. Targeted Tariffs
- Trump's potential universal tariffs differ from his previous targeted approach.
- The extent and impact remain uncertain, but a substantial increase from his first term is likely.
