Trump's Policy Predictions and Tariffs

The economic implications of Trump’s second term are explored through a framework predicting three scenarios: Trump at face value, Trump mild, and Trump aggressive. The scenario viewed as most plausible suggests a return to heightened protectionism, particularly an increase in tariffs which could be universally applied across countries. Trump's shift towards broader tariffs could significantly influence inflation in the U.S. as prices for imported goods rise, with historical references pointing to the infeasibility of relying solely on tariffs for public revenue. The anticipated tariffs could lead to increased domestic goods prices, which would add upward pressure on inflation rates while simultaneously straining global economic growth.