Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Ciamac is Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, where he has been since 2007. He also develops quantitative trading strategies at Bourbaki LLC, a quantitative investment advisor. A high school dropout, he received degrees at MIT, Cambridge, and Stanford. In this podcast, we discuss: Types of quant investing – prediction vs risk premia. Why machine learning is impacting finance more slowly than other domains (like vision and text). The pros and cons of using linear regressions. The advantages of machine learning in non-linear and complex markets. How to think about alternative and big data. Portfolio construction and combining signals. The importance of incorporating costs. Understanding time horizons of different markets. The trend to winner-takes-all with quant investors. Why bitcoin and crypto technology is special. Books that influenced Ciamac: The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie and Tibshirani), Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control: books 1 and 2 (Bertsekas), Active Portfolio Management (Grinold and Kahn). You can follow Ciamac on Twitter here and his work here

Jay is the founder of TPW Advisory and former top ranked head of asset allocation at Morgan Stanley. In this podcast, we discuss: The implications of a tri-polar world. The biggest boom is underway.. Which asset classes will perform in this new regime. The problem with a 60:40 portfolio. How to play clean energy (ICLN, ECAR) and why old energy (XLE) may still perform. Focusing on core themes: clean energy, innovation, fintech, and cyber. The Biden revolution that everyone is missing. Why rising rates won’t hurt stocks. Why ARK will outperform FAANGs (RSP >SPY). How non-US and EM (EMQQ) will outperform US. Why US-China risks are overstated. Books that influenced Jay: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story Of Risk and Capital Ideas (both Peter Bernstein), Age of Ambition (Osnos), Devil Take the Hindmost (Chancellor), The Unwinding (Packer), and The Great Risk Shift (Hacker)

Christian Hille is the General Manager and Head of Wealth Management at Fürstlich-Castell’sche Bank (FCB) in Germany. FCB was founded in 1774 and is one of the oldest private banks in Germany. Before FCB, Christian was Global Head of Multi Asset & Solutions at DWS- Deutsche Bank’s asset management arm, where he was responsible for EUR100bn in assets. In this podcast, we discuss: Living in exponential times The dramatic change in investment efficient frontiers Why expected investment returns could be half compared to recent decades How investors will respond to low growth The best way to think about risk management Taking advantage of extreme market moves Using optionality in rates to hedge against risk scenarios Where to get returns in a low interest world Why gold and defensive stocks are attractive How to access private equity How the financial industry will evolve Books that influence Christian: The Universe In You: Rumi , Mindset (Dweck), Principles (Dalio)

Jon is the author of the widely followed Cheap Convexity blog and always has excellent insights on Fed policy, rates markets and the dollar. In this podcast, we discuss: How to think about the Fed’s new framework. The rates trade that captures this shift – the Brainard steepener! Why a taper tantrum is less likely this time. Why the ECB could be more comfortable with euro strength. How the Georgia senate elections complicated the weak dollar trade. Why precious metals may struggle even with low rates. Why technical issues around the Fed balance sheet are overstated. Are equities expensive? Will US/Euro rates divergence trades work? Books that influenced Jon: Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Market Wizards (Schwager) and More Money Than God (Mallaby).

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Barry Eichengreen is one of the leading thinkers on international economics and exchanges rates. He is Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a prolific author including most recently The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era (2018) and How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future (2017). In this podcast, we discuss: Why past pandemics are a poor guide to the COVID pandemic. Have we reached peak political polarization? Has financial globalisation constrained central bankers? Could the Chinese yuan displace the US dollar as dominant currency? The recipe for being the top reserve currency. The status of the Euro. Why crypto will not topple the dollar. The two key reforms for the international financial system. Books that influenced Barry: The World In Depression 1929-1939 (Kindleberger), A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz), The Yellen class note (not available online)

Eli is an economist and regulatory hacker living in Washington, DC, and a senior research fellow at the Center for Growth and Opportunity at Utah State University. Before that he was head of global policy at Boon supersonic. In this podcast, we discuss: Why we haven’t a replacement for Concorde (yet) How vaccine/mRNA breakthrough can help with HIV and cancers Anti-ageing and blood plasma transfer The problem of energy storage and renewables Breakthroughs in geothermal energy The future of transportation SpaceX Starship could open a new frontier in space travel Minitiarisation of chips and circuits and ‘escaping’ Moore’s law Why Ethereum has a brighter future than Bitcoin A book that influenced Eli: Finite and Infinite Games (Carse)  

Happy new year and welcome to our first podcast of 2021. In this episode, we try something different and have curated the best investment ideas from our listeners. They’re a smart bunch so well worth listening to. Here are the ideas discussed:   Buying clean energy (Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy ET [PBW]) – Rohan Yelvigi (NY) Buying Japan stocks (iShares MSCI Japan ETF [EWJ]) – Peter Repetto (NY)  Buying healthcare and financial sector equity volatility – Stephen Howard (HK) Position for equity correction – Lorenzo Lorenzi (Milan)  Low inflation (selling inflation breakevens) – Dominique Dwor-Frecaut (Los Angeles) Selling US 20y rates – SN Vaidya (London)  Buying pound sterling (GBP/USD) – Eric Zijdenbos (London) Buying GBP/USD upside options – Arun Sundaram (London)  Buying FX volatility – Karl Massey (London) Buying Swedish Krona (selling EUR/SEK) – Ken Dickson (Edinburgh)  Buying Chilean equities (iShares MSCI Chile ETF [ECH]) – Alex Schober (NY) Buying Turkey (FX and equities) – Philipp Birkan (Vienna) 

Michael Auerbach is the Founder of Subversive Capital, which is dedicated to investing in radical companies. He sits on the Board of Directors of Tilray, Inc. – the first Nasdaq-listed global cannabis company – and holds several directorships with companies that Subversive invests in. He also serves as a Senior Vice President at Albright Stonebridge Group, the global consulting firm chaired by former Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright. In this podcast, we discuss:  Launching a SPAC (SBVCF) with Jay-Z for the cannabis sector  The bullish case for the California cannabis market  Why Canada’s legalization of cannabis has still seen illicit trade increase  The financing challenge for cannabis companies  Why brands are where the value is  How the Biden administration will accelerate legalisation  The political and cultural reasons for banning cannabis over alcohol  The Portugal case of decriminalisation  Books that influenced Michael: Far From the Tree (Solomon), How to Change Your Mind (Pollan), Sapiens (Harari), History of Sexuality (Foucault), Glas (Derrida), King Leopold’s Ghost (Hochschild), Malcolm X, Say Nothing (Keefe)  

Dr Ashley Lenihan is a leading expert on the relationship between foreign direct investment and national security and is the author of ‘Balancing Power without Weapons: State Intervention into Cross-Border M&A’. She is the Head of Policy and Engagement at the British Academy of Management (BAM), a visiting Fellow at the London School of Economic’s Centre for International Studies, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. In the podcast, we discuss: Why countries block foreign investment/M&A deals Types of measures used to block or mitigate deals Evolution of US policy on foreign investment (CFIUS, FIRMA) Examples of US vetoes Will Biden change CFIUS approach? How data is new front for regulating foreign investment The unusually broad scope of new UK regulation Advice to companies who engage in cross-border M&A Books that influenced Ashley: Theory of International Politics (Waltz), National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (Hirschman), Power & Interdependence (Keohane and Nye) and Isolationism (Kupchan)

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. One of our most popular guests, legendary Jim Leitner, returns on this episode. He gives his take on the big picture themes of the day, how best to implement trades and much more, specifically we discuss: Why the rotation trade from growth to value may not work The importance of looking at the structural trends in undervalued sectors Why today’s tech boom is different from the dot-com mania The problem with 60:40 portfolios. The importance of real estate investments How low bond yields change how to value equities The power of digital options in implementing views and the bullish CNY story The ‘risk arbitrage’ of vol-focused market makers and trend focused investors The importance of limited trades a year The relationship between demographics and equities and the positive Japan story Reshoring and smart manufacturing The potential of bitcoin Advice for early career, and recommended books Checklist Manifesto (Gawande) and Superforecasting (Tetlock)