Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Dominique is one of my favourite macro thinkers and economists – she's so good, we hired her to work for Macro Hive. As for her background, she's worked at Bridgewater, Barclays and RBS. And before that she worked on policy and research at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank. In the podcast, we talk about: The US labour supply problem and its impact on growth for the rest of 2021 The difference between Democrat and Republican states on COVID Can inflation move higher? How income inequality drives asset markets and the economy The impact of more active fiscal policy on growth and inflation Outlook on Germany and China Timing the next big US bond sell-off Books that influenced Dominique: Radical Uncertainty (King, Kay), The Social Conquest of Earth (Wilson)

Phil is one of my favourite global economists. Currently, he runs his own economic research outfit. Before that he worked at JPMorgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor. In the podcast, we talk about: COVID has led to the biggest change to inflation regime since early 1970s. Private sector to acquire real assets rather than financial assets. High inflation likely to persist over 2022 and 2023. Fed will be in play sooner than expected. Goods sector could see 'recession' in 2021 on supply constraints. Summer risks around US fiscal and debt ceiling. EM local markets appear mispriced. Climate change policies lead to more investment and higher prices. UK in secular decline. Book that has recently engaged Phil Suttle: John Maynard Keynes: 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman (Skidelsky).

Wolfgang Münchau, co-founder and director of Eurointelligence and former Financial Times columnist, dives into Germany's political landscape. He critiques the CDU's leadership under Armin Laschet and highlights the rising Greens and their fiscal agendas. The discussion expands to the political fallout from the COVID-19 response, including public trust issues. Münchau also questions the stability of the Eurozone amidst these political shifts, pondering the need for a fiscal union to address economic disparities.

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Jeff is Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners. He started his career in portfolio management and equity research before focusing on broad investment research since the 2000s. In this podcast, we discuss: Do central banks believe in QE? Why QE didn't generate inflation after GFC. What is money and can central banks control it? The importance of banks. What caused the 1970s inflation. The rise of the offshore dollar (euro-dollar) system. Why fiscal stimulus won't work. The problem with market fragility and illiquidity. Central banks care about equity markets. What could generate inflation? Book that influenced Jeff: A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz)

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Boris focuses on global macro and EM. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. In this podcast, we discuss: Inflation outlook – the Europe surprise – inflation persistence. Will fiscal spending crowd out private spending? The best Europe trade. Which yields matter for EM. How important is China's deleveraging goals? Where next for Chinese currency and bonds? Outlook for BRICS countries and which markets to buy. Machine learning vs regressions. Books that influenced Boris: Twenty-Eight Years In Wall Street (Clews), Economic Interdependence and War (Copeland), The Ashtray (Morris) and Twelve Virtues of Rationality (Yudkowsky). Current market views on bonds and equities.

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Bobby is partner and portfolio manager at Toscafund Asset Management. He is author of the widely read newsletter, Macro Eagle. He has been the UK representative of the German Economic Council. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats. In this podcast, we discuss: Why the backlash against Big Tech will continue. The unionization drive in the US. A new global corporate tax accord. The bullish case for Europe. Germany in a post-Merkel world. Biden's differences to Obama. Biden's tougher stance on China than Trump. Current market views on bonds and equities.

David Riley is Partner and Chief Investment Strategist of BlueBay Asset management – a USD70bn fixed income fund. Before Bluebay, David was global head of Fitch's Sovereign and Supranational Group, responsible for more than 130 ratings of the world's largest fixed-income issuers. Prior to Fitch, David was at HM Treasury where he advised on international economic and debt issues, including representing the UK at international debt restructuring negotiations at the Paris Club of Official Creditors. In this podcast, we discuss: How sustainable are US and developed market debt? Will the reflation trade continue for 2021? Peak pessimism on Euro-area. Dollar trend. Will corporates start defaulting? Impact of higher rates on credit. Which EM markets look attractive? The impact of ESG on the asset management industry. Books that influenced David: Fooled By Randomness (Taleb), Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman), Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Balance Sheet Recession (Koo).

Benn is the managing member and CIO of QVR. He was previously co-founder and co-portfolio manager of Mariner Coria in New York. Before that he was Head of Quantitative Research and Derivatives Trader for the Wells Fargo proprietary trading desk, which became Overland Advisors. He started his career as an emerging markets macroeconomist at the World Bank. He holds a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley. In this podcast, we discuss: How derivative markets changed after the 2008 financial crisis. The centrality of listed derivatives. Why understanding supply-demand dynamics is important. How complexity of strategies doesn't give you an edge. Do short vol strategies work? How to manage convexity and tail risk. Derivatives to replace bonds as safe haven hedge? What risks are investors focusing on since COVID? Common mistakes by quants. Book that influenced Benn: The House of Morgan (Chernow).

Marco is Founder and CEO of MGM Innova Group, which includes a private equity and green infrastructure fund, and a multinational firm specializing in integrated sustainability and climate change services that facilitate a transition towards a low carbon economy. Prior to that, he worked as an advisor on climate change issues to the Japanese government. In 2002, the World Economic Forum named Mr. Monroy one of the 100 Global Leaders of Tomorrow. In this podcast, we discuss: Will climate change policies work? The state-of-play in cap and trade and carbon taxes. The importance of energy efficiency incentives. Will the Biden administration make a difference? What is climate finance? Role of renewables and nuclear energy. Landfill/carbon capture. Investor flows into ESG and green bonds. Books that influenced Marco: The Alchemist (Coelho), Outliers (Gladwell), Emotional Intelligence (Goleman), Man's Search For Meaning (Frankl).

Zac is the CEO and Founder of BlockFi – a leading wealth management firm for crypto investors. Prior to starting BlockFi, he led business development teams at Orchard Platform, a broker dealer and RIA in the online lending sector, and Zibby, an online consumer lender. In this podcast, we discuss: The three use case of crypto – store of value, new commerce, and new payments system. Stablecoins are underappreciated. What is decentralized finance (defi). How you can earn interest on crypto assets. How to manage crypto lending books. Breakdown of market players. How to hedge your portfolio. Regulatory trends in crypto finance. Future of NFTs. Books that influenced Zac: The Hard Thing About Hard Things (Horowitz) and Zero To One (Thiel). Books Zac has recently read: No Rules Rules: Netflix and the Culture of Reinvention (Hastings) and Shantaram (Roberts).