Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. James Aitken is the Founder and Managing Partner of Aitken Advisors, a research boutique for institutional investors which he started in 2009. Before that, James worked for UBS, AIG, JPMorgan and Macqaurie. In this podcast, we discuss: The real meaning of macro investing. The market has right tails as well as left tails. How to view recent rates market volatility. Why would Fed do yield curve control? Biden and the finance sector. How to hedge your portfolio. The importance of stock vigilantes. The different channels of inflation. The unexpected impact of US fiscal on wages. Books that influenced James: The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes (Doyle), Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes (Konnikova), Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders (Schwager), A Man for All Markets: Beating the Odds, from Las Vegas to Wall Street (Thorpe), An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets (Mackenzie)

Peter is Deputy Director of the ARC Energy Research Institute, a Managing Director of ARC Financial Corporation, an energy-focused private equity firm, and the creator of Energyphile, a multimedia project exploring the past, present and future of our energy circumstance. He is the author of three books, the bestselling A Thousand Barrels a Second, The End of Energy Obesity, and his latest The Investor Visit and Other Stories, which explores disruption, denial and transition in the energy business. He is also an Adjunct Professor at the University of Calgary. In this podcast, we discuss: The continuing reliance of the world on oil and gas. Path of renewables. Are latest clean energy expectations likely to be realised? Why clean tech is being highly valued. The impact of electric cars and batteries on metals. How the oil industry will evolve with ESG and clean tech trends. The role of carbon capture and big energy companies. Financing challenges in energy sector. Book that influenced Peter: Edison – His Life and Inventions.

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Ciamac is Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, where he has been since 2007. He also develops quantitative trading strategies at Bourbaki LLC, a quantitative investment advisor. A high school dropout, he received degrees at MIT, Cambridge, and Stanford. In this podcast, we discuss: Types of quant investing – prediction vs risk premia. Why machine learning is impacting finance more slowly than other domains (like vision and text). The pros and cons of using linear regressions. The advantages of machine learning in non-linear and complex markets. How to think about alternative and big data. Portfolio construction and combining signals. The importance of incorporating costs. Understanding time horizons of different markets. The trend to winner-takes-all with quant investors. Why bitcoin and crypto technology is special. Books that influenced Ciamac: The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie and Tibshirani), Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control: books 1 and 2 (Bertsekas), Active Portfolio Management (Grinold and Kahn). You can follow Ciamac on Twitter here and his work here

Jay is the founder of TPW Advisory and former top ranked head of asset allocation at Morgan Stanley. In this podcast, we discuss: The implications of a tri-polar world. The biggest boom is underway.. Which asset classes will perform in this new regime. The problem with a 60:40 portfolio. How to play clean energy (ICLN, ECAR) and why old energy (XLE) may still perform. Focusing on core themes: clean energy, innovation, fintech, and cyber. The Biden revolution that everyone is missing. Why rising rates won't hurt stocks. Why ARK will outperform FAANGs (RSP >SPY). How non-US and EM (EMQQ) will outperform US. Why US-China risks are overstated. Books that influenced Jay: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story Of Risk and Capital Ideas (both Peter Bernstein), Age of Ambition (Osnos), Devil Take the Hindmost (Chancellor), The Unwinding (Packer), and The Great Risk Shift (Hacker)

Christian Hille is the General Manager and Head of Wealth Management at Fürstlich-Castell'sche Bank (FCB) in Germany. FCB was founded in 1774 and is one of the oldest private banks in Germany. Before FCB, Christian was Global Head of Multi Asset & Solutions at DWS- Deutsche Bank's asset management arm, where he was responsible for EUR100bn in assets. In this podcast, we discuss: Living in exponential times The dramatic change in investment efficient frontiers Why expected investment returns could be half compared to recent decades How investors will respond to low growth The best way to think about risk management Taking advantage of extreme market moves Using optionality in rates to hedge against risk scenarios Where to get returns in a low interest world Why gold and defensive stocks are attractive How to access private equity How the financial industry will evolve Books that influence Christian: The Universe In You: Rumi , Mindset (Dweck), Principles (Dalio)

Jon is the author of the widely followed Cheap Convexity blog and always has excellent insights on Fed policy, rates markets and the dollar. In this podcast, we discuss: How to think about the Fed's new framework. The rates trade that captures this shift – the Brainard steepener! Why a taper tantrum is less likely this time. Why the ECB could be more comfortable with euro strength. How the Georgia senate elections complicated the weak dollar trade. Why precious metals may struggle even with low rates. Why technical issues around the Fed balance sheet are overstated. Are equities expensive? Will US/Euro rates divergence trades work? Books that influenced Jon: Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Market Wizards (Schwager) and More Money Than God (Mallaby).

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Barry Eichengreen is one of the leading thinkers on international economics and exchanges rates. He is Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a prolific author including most recently The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era (2018) and How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future (2017). In this podcast, we discuss: Why past pandemics are a poor guide to the COVID pandemic. Have we reached peak political polarization? Has financial globalisation constrained central bankers? Could the Chinese yuan displace the US dollar as dominant currency? The recipe for being the top reserve currency. The status of the Euro. Why crypto will not topple the dollar. The two key reforms for the international financial system. Books that influenced Barry: The World In Depression 1929-1939 (Kindleberger), A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz), The Yellen class note (not available online)

Eli is an economist and regulatory hacker living in Washington, DC, and a senior research fellow at the Center for Growth and Opportunity at Utah State University. Before that he was head of global policy at Boon supersonic. In this podcast, we discuss: Why we haven't a replacement for Concorde (yet) How vaccine/mRNA breakthrough can help with HIV and cancers Anti-ageing and blood plasma transfer The problem of energy storage and renewables Breakthroughs in geothermal energy The future of transportation SpaceX Starship could open a new frontier in space travel Minitiarisation of chips and circuits and 'escaping' Moore's law Why Ethereum has a brighter future than Bitcoin A book that influenced Eli: Finite and Infinite Games (Carse)

Happy new year and welcome to our first podcast of 2021. In this episode, we try something different and have curated the best investment ideas from our listeners. They're a smart bunch so well worth listening to. Here are the ideas discussed: Buying clean energy (Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy ET [PBW]) – Rohan Yelvigi (NY) Buying Japan stocks (iShares MSCI Japan ETF [EWJ]) – Peter Repetto (NY) Buying healthcare and financial sector equity volatility – Stephen Howard (HK) Position for equity correction – Lorenzo Lorenzi (Milan) Low inflation (selling inflation breakevens) – Dominique Dwor-Frecaut (Los Angeles) Selling US 20y rates – SN Vaidya (London) Buying pound sterling (GBP/USD) – Eric Zijdenbos (London) Buying GBP/USD upside options – Arun Sundaram (London) Buying FX volatility – Karl Massey (London) Buying Swedish Krona (selling EUR/SEK) – Ken Dickson (Edinburgh) Buying Chilean equities (iShares MSCI Chile ETF [ECH]) – Alex Schober (NY) Buying Turkey (FX and equities) – Philipp Birkan (Vienna)

Michael Auerbach is the Founder of Subversive Capital, which is dedicated to investing in radical companies. He sits on the Board of Directors of Tilray, Inc. – the first Nasdaq-listed global cannabis company – and holds several directorships with companies that Subversive invests in. He also serves as a Senior Vice President at Albright Stonebridge Group, the global consulting firm chaired by former Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright. In this podcast, we discuss: Launching a SPAC (SBVCF) with Jay-Z for the cannabis sector The bullish case for the California cannabis market Why Canada's legalization of cannabis has still seen illicit trade increase The financing challenge for cannabis companies Why brands are where the value is How the Biden administration will accelerate legalisation The political and cultural reasons for banning cannabis over alcohol The Portugal case of decriminalisation Books that influenced Michael: Far From the Tree (Solomon), How to Change Your Mind (Pollan), Sapiens (Harari), History of Sexuality (Foucault), Glas (Derrida), King Leopold's Ghost (Hochschild), Malcolm X, Say Nothing (Keefe)