Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

In this show, I talk with Professor Kevin Dowd. He is professor of finance and economics at Durham University and an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute. He has written extensively on the history and theory of free banking, central banking, financial regulation, and monetary systems. His books include Private Money: The Path to Monetary Stability, Laissez‐Faire Banking and Alchemists of Loss: How Modern Finance and Government Intervention Crashed the Financial System. In this podcast we discuss: Was government intervention in 2020 the right thing to do? The capital problems of the banking and insurance sectors Why free banking (no/light regulation) works The problem with MMT Why debt levels matter How negative rates could hurt

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. I’m a big fan of the new HBO show Industry. It follows a group of young graduates competing for  permanent positions at fictional investment bank, Pierpoint & Co. It’s the most authentic depiction of a trading floor that I have seen on a TV show, so I had to get the creators of the show, Mickey Down and Konrad Kay, on to my podcast show. In this podcast we discuss: Their backgrounds working at investment banks Where they filmed the trading floor Why they avoided storylines like insider trading How they captured the details of sales/trading and M&A What the show tells us about young people today Will there be a season 2?

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam. He is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute and the founder of EndCoronavirus. He received his SB and PhD in physics from MIT in 1978 and 1984 respectively. Since the late 1980s he has contributed to founding the field of complex systems science, introducing fundamental mathematical rigor and real world application, ranging from the global financial crisis to stopping the 2014 Ebola outbreak. He has advised the CDC, the Chairman’s Action Group at the Pentagon, the National Security Council, the National Counter Terrorism Council, and other government organizations, NGOs, and corporations. In this podcast we discuss: Yaneer’s January paper with Nassim Taleb and Joseph Norman on the coming COVID crisis Using complexity science to understand pandemics The importance of restricting travel and bringing cases to zero The mistake of countries that lift restrictions before zero cases Why the West managed COVID poorly compared to Asia and Africa The poor comparison to seasonal flu The economic benefits of aggressive action vs cost of soft lockdowns Why the vaccine doesn’t mean countries should lift restrictions How investors and the business community can help end the COVID crisis

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Dr. Dirk Willer. He’s a Managing Director and Global Head of Emerging Markets FX and Fixed Income Strategy at Citigroup in NY. His research covers global emerging markets for FX, local rates, and credit. Dirk and his team have been ranked as the top team in the 2019 institutional investor survey for emerging markets strategy in FX and rates. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and at Swiss Bank as Russia strategist. He’s also recently published an excellent new book called “Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets: A Practitioner′s Guide”.  In this podcast we discuss: How markets treated the US election like an EM election Impact of Biden’s win on major EM Why EM does well with the vaccine breakthroughs Which EM will do best in post-COVID world Will EM inflation pick up? Can EM survive higher US rates? Is China a good long-term buy? Should we be worried about Brazil’s fiscal numbers? How much does EM depend on global factors? Trading rules for EM markets Books that influenced Dirk: Market Wizards, The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality, Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. In this show, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. I had him as a guest in July when he argued that we could see a COVID vaccine around US election time. He was right and so I wanted to get his latest views. For background, Justin is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies. He has an extensive research background having published over 550 peer-reviewed papers. Earlier this year, he published in the Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19 and recently published in Foreign Affairs China’s global role in vaccine distribution. In this podcast we discuss: The significance of Pfizer’s 90% efficacy rate Vaccines from other pharma companies including from Russia & China The science of vaccines – B-cell and T-cell responses Fast tracking of vaccine approval by FDA Managing public opinion and anti-vaxxers Logistics of vaccine distribution When will we get to herd-immunity Remaining uncertainties around vaccines Mink factories and mutations Long COVID and athletes Which countries have secured vaccine supplies

The US election did not see the Democrat wave that many had expected, so I have US Presidential history expert of Cambridge University, Gary Gerstle, return to our podcast show. He gives his take on all things US elections and beyond. In this podcast we discuss: The parallel Presidencies of 1876 The current risks of unrest if the results are not certified soon What pollsters missed Were the Democrats too left or not left enough? How will Biden manage the left and a Republican Senate ahead of 2022 midterms The return of state rights over central government How a divided congress shifts power to the President and the Supreme Court The profound importance of the Republicans winning State legislatures Thoughts on a Georgia Senate run-off

Michael was Managing Director and Senior Research Advisor in Multi-Asset Strategies at BlackRock. Prior to that he was head of Currency and Fixed Income Research in the Global Market Strategies Group at BlackRock and Barclays Global Investors. Michael is currently Executive Director of the Master of Finance program and also serves as Executive Director of the Pacific Center for Asset Management at UC San Diego. He has been a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Board, the International Monetary Fund, and the Bank for International Settlements. In this podcast we discuss: The difference between quantitative and fundamental investing How to systematically earn alpha in FX markets How to think about FX carry and momentum strategies Does flow data have any value? How the QE-era has fundamentally changed FX investing The importance of China and the Chinese yuan How to use machine learning for trading Why understanding transaction costs is critical How to benchmark the performance of currency managers Papers mentioned: Preserving Alpha: The Effect of Trade Size and Rebalancing Frequency on FX Strategy Returns and Active Currency Investing and Performance Benchmarks Books that influenced Michael: Active Portfolio Management and Autobiography of a Yogi

John Kay is one of the UK’s leading economists. His books on the tax system, corporate strategy and banking have been widely praised. He helped establish the Institute of Fiscal Studies, is a fellow at St. Johns College Oxford, and was the first dean of Oxford’s Saïd Business School. In this podcast we discuss: The importance of science for policymakers and why they do not use it more The problem with the focus on short-term earnings Why people are pro-social rather than individualistic Why the 1970s failed and later why neo-liberalism failed Why productivity could be under-estimated The problem with the rights movements The need for decentralization and disciplined pluralism How the EU helps the creation of smaller states Why regulation is helping big banks The importance for businesses not to obsess about profits Recent book that influenced John: The Secret of Our Success (Joseph Henrich)

Gary is Paul Mellon Professor of American History at Cambridge University. Before that, he was at Vanderbilt University where he was James G. Stahlman Professor of American History. He is a social and political historian of the twentieth century, with substantial interests in the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. He got his PhD from Harvard University. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. In this podcast we discuss: How Trump deviates from Republican orthodoxy How Biden could continue Trump’s protectionist policies US climate-change related immigration challenges Historic parallels of protectionism and anti-immigration How Trump’s break from democratic norms is unprecedented How Trump differs from Richard Nixon and Andrew Jackson When was the last time the US was as polarised as today The challenges of a Biden administration

Corey recently wrote an excellent piece on market liquidity and I had to have him as a guest. For background, he is co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Newfound Research, a quantitative tactical asset management firm. At Newfound, he is responsible for portfolio management, investment research, strategy development, and communication of the firm's views to clients. He holds a Master of Science in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University. In this podcast we discuss: How central banks have pushed investors up the risk curve How central banks have introduced moral hazard to investors The importance of passive investing as marginal flow into assets The impact of passive on how trades are executed The procyclicality of HFT liquidity provision How dealers hedging magnifies volatility shifts The prevalence of volatility contingent strategies in markets When do liquidity cascades end How to position of liquidity cascades Books that influenced Corey: Fooled by Randomness (Nassim Taleb) and Red-Blooded Risk (Aaron Brown)