Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Helen is Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University. She has been at Cambridge since 1994, and is at present, Deputy Head of the School of the Humanities and Social Sciences. She is a regular panelist on the excellent podcast show Talking Politics. She has recently been focusing on the political economy of oil, Brexit and the euro zone crisis. In this podcast we discuss: The current state-of-play in Brexit talks How state aid issues have become more importance since COVID The purpose and implications of the Internal Market Bill Why the EU wants a deal Could Boris Johnson face a leadership challenge? How Scotland could get an independence vote The challenge for Labour around England and Scotland UK’s new flexible foreign policy balancing EU and US Should central banks target income inequality Books that influenced Helen: David Copperfield (Charles Dickens) and The Radetzky March (Joseph Roth)

Vitor was the Vice President of the ECB until a few years ago. And before that held numerous high-profile roles including being Portugal’s finance minister, the central bank governor of Portugal and negotiating the entry of Portugal into the EEC – the forerunner to the EU. Vitor is currently President of the Council of ISEG at the University of Lisbon and a Professor at the Navarra University in Madrid.. In this podcast we discuss: The evolution of monetary policy since the 1970s Is there a limit to the size of central bank’s balance sheet? How low inflation accelerated ECB QE Why central banks cannot control inflation perfectly Does the ECB target the euro Views on the Fed’s new average inflation target and whether ECB will follow Why QE and loose fiscal policy is not MMT Should central banks target income inequality How the ECB can support climate change policies Why fiscal policy is needed more than monetary policy And Twitter footnote: Europe’s two downside risks – delays in recovery fund disbursements and credit supply issues.

Charlie McElligott is the leading experts on all things positioning, flow, sentiment and quant factors. He is a Managing Director and Cross-Asset Macro Strategist for the Global Markets Americas business at Nomura Securities International, with more than 15 years’ experience in macro markets. Prior to joining Nomura, Charlie was Head of US Cross-Asset Macro Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Before that, he spent eight years at UBS. In this podcast we discuss: Understanding the impact of low real yields and “everything duration” trade How momentum and secular growth (tech) trades have converged Will value trades ever work? What indicators to use to identify sharp market reversals The importance of dealer gamma What happened during the summer melt-up in tech Views on recent market correction Favourite trades around US election Personal stuff: Charlie’s paleo approach and longevity supplements Books: Jon Krakauer’s “Into Thin Air”

Michael Pettis, a widely followed China expert, discusses topics such as debt, savings rates, trade surpluses, and the role of the Chinese yuan. He explains how high savings rates in China lead to higher debt instead of growth. The podcast also covers the problem with official Chinese GDP data, the importance of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and the impact of income inequality on global trade.

I’m always on the lookout for podcast guests with unconventional backgrounds, and on this episode, we have one such guest, Lyn Alden. Lyn has an academic background in engineering and currently works at an aviation simulation facility. But on top of her day job, she has developed a widely followed framework for investing in markets. Her approach is value with a global macro overlay and she’s been doing this research for over fifteen years. I learnt a lot in our conversation, and I’m sure you will too. In this podcast we discuss: The differences between today’s tech boom and the dot-com period How she is currently playing tech stocks Finding value in international stocks and in quality stocks Metrics to use for quality Underappreciated sectors like tobacco and energy Views on Tesla, Amazon and Apple Looking at equally-weighted vs market-cap weighted stock indices Bullish on China tech How to think about debt cycles and the special case of Japan Bullish views on gold and bitcoin Book that influenced her: Big Debt Crises

In this episode, I talk with Professor Laura Veldkamp. Laura presented one of the key papers at the Federal Reserve’s 2020 gathering at Jackson Hole. Her paper co-authored with Julian Kozlowski and Venky Venkateswaran on 'Scarring Body and Mind: The Long Term Belief Scarring Effects of COVID-19' will likely be viewed as a seminal paper in years to come. Laura is a Professor of Finance at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and a co-editor of the Journal of Economic Theory. She’s a frequent consultant for the New York and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Banks. She is also the author of the textbook, Information Choice in Macroeconomics and Finance. In this podcast we discuss: Importance of the knowledge economy How alternatives to rational expectation models need to be used when dealing with tail events The critical role of the reactions and belief scarring from events like pandemics Why the long-term costs of COVID will be ten times larger than the current year costs How safe haven assets will be in even more demand, which will keep rates low The role of data accumulation in economies The limits of big data A book that influenced Laura: Guns, Germs and Steel

In this episode, I talk with David Beckworth. David is the host of one of my favourite economics podcasts, Macro Musings. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a former international economist at the US Treasury. He is the author of Boom and Bust Banking: The Causes and Cures of the Great Recession. His research focuses on monetary policy, and he has advised congressional staffers on policy. In this podcast we discuss: 1. What did the Fed do right and wrong in its COVID response 2. How the Fed is losing independence 3. The advantages of price level and average inflation rate targeting 4. Why nominal GDP/income targeting is the best approach 5. What has caused the 30y decline in US rates 6. How the Fed should be reformed 7. Books that influenced David: Secrets of the Temple and Less Than Zero

In this episode, I talk with Shahraab Ahmad. Shahraab was previously the Chief Investment Officer of the credit fund Decca Capital. Prior to launching the fund in 2015, he managed the Hutchin Hill Liquid Credit Strategy (2008-2013). From 2005 to 2008, he was a partner at Sailfish Capital, where he traded global relative value within credit, and prior to that, he was Co-Head of the HY Credit Trading Group at J.P. Morgan (1999-2004). In this podcast we discuss: The early years of CDS trading Transitioning from the sell-side to hedge funds How credit markets are less efficient today than in the past How the 2008 crisis compared to the 2001-2002 credit crisis The challenges of launching your own fund How he traded the COVID crisis Potential value in NY residential real estate The opportunities in Venezuelan bonds How to use SPACs to gain value How central bank QE could help hide corporate fraud The book that influenced his trading the most

In this episode, I talk with Stephen Roach. Stephen is well known for his 30-year stint at Morgan Stanley, where he was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and Chief Economist. He’s currently a Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a Senior Lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. At Yale, he has introduced new courses on “The Next China” and “The Lessons of Japan.”. He’s an author too with his recent book published in 2014, which is called Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China”. In this podcast, we discuss: How poor public health investment has made the recession worse Implications of the US’s diminished role on the global stage Three reasons for the dollar’s coming decline The problem with the lack of US savings Why investment has been too low The problem with Trump’s China policy The need for Europe to stand up on the global stage Likely Biden policies if he wins Life after Wall Street

In this episode, I talk with Governor Dr Reza Baqir who became the 20th Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan in May 2019. He took the helm as Pakistan embarked on an ambitious reform plan which included an IMF programme. Before that, he was an 18-year veteran of the IMF and previously also worked at the World Bank. He was the Head of the IMF's Office in Egypt and Senior Resident Representative from 2017 to 2019. He has also held positions as IMF Mission Chief for Romania and Bulgaria, Division Chief of the IMF's Debt Policy Division, and Head of the IMF delegation to the Paris Club. His research has been published in top journals of the economics profession, including the Journal of Political Economy and the Quarterly Journal of Economics. In this podcast we discuss: 1. The state of Pakistan’s economy and financial markets before COVID hit 2. The reasons for and status of the IMF programme 3. How Pakistan’s markets behaved over COVID 4. The transition from a fixed FX regime to market-determined FX regime 5. The path of FX reserves 6. How the State Bank has shifted to an expected inflation target 7. COVID policies outside of cutting rates 8. Longer-term goals of boosting exports, financial inclusion and raising saving rates 9. How global institutions have responded to the COVID crisis versus GFC 10. The role of debt reduction rather than debt rescheduling for EM