Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

In this episode, I talk with John Llewellyn. John is the co-founder of Llewellyn Consulting – a leading independent economic advisory firm. Before setting up the firm in 2009, John had various research roles including being the Global Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers, Head of International Forecasting and Policy Analysis at the OECD and teaching at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Cambridge. In this podcast, we discuss: Forget talks of V-, W-shaped recoveries, it will take years to return to pre-COVID output COVID adds to challenges of adapting to Fourth Industrial Revolution Why haven’t real wages risen? Are we mismeasuring growth, investment and productivity? Why inflation won’t rise meaningfully The pros and cons of MMT The surprisingly good EU budget/recovery fund Germany’s U-turn on frugality The transition challenges of Brexit China’s pressure cooker and India’s steady release Climate change – a 5-degree temperature increase changes everything

In this episode, I talk with Edward Misrahi. Edward is the CIO and Founder of Ronit Capital – a leading emerging markets focused hedge fund. He founded the fund in 2013, before that he was a founding partner of Eton Park Capital. Edward started his career at Goldman Sachs – where amongst other things he worked in the famous Risk Arbitrage group and later become a partner. In this podcast we discuss: The 1994 Mexico crisis and learning how to buy distressed assets The 1997-1998 Asia/Russia/LTCM crisis and the importance of correlations The problem with hedging and importance of thinking of gross positions How to think about the US factor when trading EM markets The three ingredients of EM crises Be careful of overweighting politics Decluttering the investment process COVID’s decoupling of markets and the economy Market risks still remain Which EM markets look good

In this episode, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. He is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He initially trained at Oxford, before having a residency at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in the US, then returned to the UK to work at the Royal Marsden, Barts and now Imperial. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies.  He has an extensive research background having published over 550 peer-reviewed papers. He recently published in the Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19.  In this podcast we discuss: Current vaccine trials Absence of COVID-19 reinfections Why is vaccine development faster than before Low mutability of COVID-19 Symptoms of COVID-19 Why are minority groups experiencing higher infection rates Why are elderly being affected the most Views on the Sweden approach Why is the US death rate not higher Policy recommendation

In this episode, I talk with Samm Sacks. She is a Cybersecurity Policy and China Digital Economy Fellow at New America. Her research focuses on emerging information and communication technology (ICT) policies globally, particularly in China. She has worked on Chinese technology policy issues for over a decade, both with the U.S. government and in the private sector. She recently testified before Congress on data security issues between the US and China. In this podcast we discuss: Why data flows matter Does the China government have access to all data in China How Chinese companies push back on data requests Are US tech firms helping the Chinese government? The right approach for the US dealing with China tech/data issues US companies need to manage US data better too EU is creating global standards EU is pushing back on US accessing European data Will US election impact US-China tech war?

This episode is sponsored by SGX – the largest Asian FX exchange. In this episode, I talk with Raghuram Rajan. He is currently Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth. Before that, he was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India between September 2013 and September 2016. Between 2003 and 2006, Dr. Rajan was the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the IMF. He’s the author of several books – most recently, the excellent “The Third Pillar: How the State and Markets are leaving Communities Behind” in 2019. In this podcast we discuss: The sources of economic weakness around COVID The 5 steps policymakers need to take from relief to reform The fallacy of MMT and the absence of free lunches Debt levels matter - for every Japan, there is an Argentina Should international markets be liberalized? Dollar’s status as reserve currency China’s challenging growth prospects India’s wrong turn Rise of authoritarianism The failure to understand fall-out from international treaties What needs to be done to be optimistic about the future

In this episode, I talk with Chris Crowe. Chris is Head of Economic & Flow Research at one of the world’s leading hedge funds, Capula Investment Management. He was previously UK Economist at Barclays for two years and prior to that, worked at the IMF for five years. He has also published in top economic journals. In this podcast we discuss: Why bond yields have trended down in recent decades The role of safe assets in this downtrend Likely shifts in the supply and demand of safe assets and impact on bonds Whether central banks have been captured by fiscal authorities Whether the Fed will move to yield curve control Whether Fed or BoE will move to negative rates US economic outlook How Brexit and COVID are impacting UK Germany vs rest in EU

In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of “Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today” and is the coauthor of “The Book of Alternative Data”, which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss: Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry How to design good trading models. Avoiding data mining Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded Why trend-following models have underperformed Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows Importance of reducing transaction costs Types of alternative data How to use news data The non-technical challenges of using alternative data Why Python is an important complement to Excel

In this episode, I talk with Lord Mervyn King. He needs no introduction, except to say he is one of the leading figures in central banking over the past few decades. He served for ten years as the Governor of the Bank of England, which included dealing with the 2008 financial crisis. He’s written a number of books including the recent bestseller with co-author John Kay “Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making Beyond the Numbers”. Here’s what we talk about: Defining uncertainty - difference between radical uncertainty and black swans Use of narratives to understand uncertainty Importance of resilience and preparedness Why central banks have done too much during COVID The importance of fiscal and other policies to deal with major economic challenges His view on negative rates Should central banks mandates be changed to target financial imbalances and inequality Could inflation head higher? Is climate change the only long-term risk to consider? How his work on radical uncertainty has changes his view of economics

In this episode, I talk with Dominique Dwor-Frecaut. She’s an accomplished macro thinker that has worked at leading hedge fund Bridgewater, the NY Fed and the IMF. She’s also been an early advocate for a V-shaped recovery. We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Why a V-shaped recovery is likely 2. The panic pandemic 3. How productivity could jump after COVID 4. What could see inflation rise 5. How income inequality is distorting the economy 6. The coming backlash against monopolies 7. Why expansion of central bank balance sheets is not a problem 8. China’s new assertiveness 9. The possible demise of the Hong Kong Dollar 10. Germany saves Europe 11. View on equities You can find most of Dominique’s views on macrohive.com.

In this episode, I talk with Professor Alex Edmans from the London Business School. He’s one of the world’s leading academics on company purpose, social value and profits. In fact, he’s just come out with a book on the subject called “Grow the Pie: How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose and Profit”. We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Is a company’s sole purpose to deliver profits? 2. How markets do not correctly price in social value in the short-term 3. The problem with restrictions on executive pay 4. Could hedge fund activism be helpful? 5. How the management styles of Continental Europe compare to the Anglo-Saxon model 6. Creating the “growing the pie” mindset 7. How to define purpose and use it to run a business 8. Is the financial sector useful? 9. Is there a place for share buybacks? 10. Does ESG work? 11. How companies should deal with COVID 12. Time management tips 13. The pitfalls of managing a team in lockdown.