Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

In this episode, I talk with Emiel Van Den Heiligenberg. He is the Head of Asset Allocation at one the world’s largest asset managers, Legal and General. His fund is one of the fastest growing multi-asset funds and has been a top quartile performer over the last five years. In his own word, Emiel replaced rowing with French Fries, but has continued to instill the teamwork from his rowing team into his investment team. We covered lots on the podcast including: 1. Why markets have recently rallied 2. The earnings challenge for equities and his preference for credit 3. The dominance of tech and tactical picks in equity laggards 4. The Thucydides trap for US-China and the risk of messy transitions between hegemons 5.How COVID could accelerate populism 6.The Dutch concerns around EU integration 7. Permanent scarring of the global economy from COVID 8. Re-opening approaches that minimize economic impact 9. Current favourite trade ideas 10. How to structure and manage teams for success 11. The pitfalls of managing a team in lockdown You can follow Emiel’s and his team’s thoughts on the LGIM blog here.

In this episode, I talk with Alfonso Prat-Gay. He was Governor of the central bank of Argentina from 2002 to 2004 and later Argentina’s Finance Minister between 2015-2016. I had the pleasure of working under Alfonso during my J.P Morgan days in the late 1990s, and I hold him up to be one of my most influential mentors. We also have a scoop about Alfonso and the Bank of England. On the podcast, we cover a very wide range of topics including: 1. The pre-COVID global trends from the US’s incorrect policy mix to slowing Chinese growth 2.Why Latin America has struggled with growth for decades 3. Why COVID hurts the poor the most economically 4. How can emerging markets escape the middle-income trap 5. The challenges of being a policymaker in Latin America 6. The failure of the IMF 7. The lack of leadership in Latin America 8. The possibility of using QE by emerging markets 9. What the UK needs during Brexit 10. Argentina’s restructuring The podcast is longer than normal, but it’s well worth the listen.

In this episode, I talk markets with Juliette Declercq. She’s a leading macro strategist and runs JDI research. She has close to twenty years market experience, including stints at J.P Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Stone Milliner. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. Why using past recessions is not a guide to the COVID crisis 2. Why P/E ratios are a poor guide to equity valuation 3. Not putting too much weight on weak employment data 4. Why Euro-area break-up trades are not attractive 5. Her view on the dollar and euro 6. The prospects of inflation.

In this episode, I talk politics and markets with Bobby Vedral. He’s a top macro and political analyst who runs Macro Eagle. He is also the UK representative of the German Economic Council, which focuses on the German-British relationship post-Brexit. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs, where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. The structural consequences of the COVID crisis 2. What the stress points are for the Euro-area and which countries are at the center of tensions 3. How the latest German constitutional court ruling could constrain the ECB 4. What’s going to happen with Brexit 5. The widening China/rest of the world political rift 6. Why Biden would likely beat Trump in elections and the importance of Biden’s VP pick 7. The problem with big tech’s monopoly 8. The future of climate change policy and ESG 9. The dramatic increase in risks of global political brinkmanship Bobby gives a very thoughtful and often different from consensus view on key political issues of the day, so make sure to listen to the whole episode. You can reach him at info@macroeagle.com.

In this episode, I have a wide-ranging conversation with the FT’s Chief Economics Commentator, Martin Wolf. He brings a depth to any topic that is often lacking anywhere else. On the podcast, we discuss: 1. The parallels of the COVID crisis with past crises such as the ones seen in the 1970s 2. The uniqueness of this crisis 3. How well policymakers have done so far 4. The role of international organisations and US hegemony 5. The challenge for EM countries 6. How China will be viewed after this crisis 7. What tensions will emerge in the EU 8. How the world will look differently after COVID

In this episode, I have a conversation with the super-smart and provocative thinker and investor, Alex Gurevich. In our wide-ranging chat, we discuss recent lessons learned, views on markets and risks to look out for. Specifically: 1. How not to become attached to one asset class or investment style. 2. How every crisis delivers something you’ve never seen before 3. Why crisis moments are when you should take most risk. 4. Why bonds can still be attractive even when yields are low 5. How keeping exposure to equities is still wise even if more declines are expected 6. Why Europe is a buy 7. How China has survived a major stress test 8. How to trade EM markets. 9. How supply chain failures are the biggest risk for the global economy.

In this episode, I have a conversation with one of the top macro investors that I’ve come across, Jim Leitner. He has an impressive track-record, but more importantly, is very thoughtful and can go from talking about the nuts and bolts of options trading to how political regimes change. In the podcast, we talk about: How not to become attached to one asset class or investment style Whether options are over-priced The path of the dollar Which companies and sectors will succeed in the COVID world Which EM markets are most attractive How to play China most effectively Whether we should worry about central banks printing money Why macro hedge funds have underperformed in recent years

In this episode, I have a conversation with one of my favourite global economists, Phil Suttle. He’s got the credentials having worked at J.P. Morgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor, but it’s his analysis that stands out. In the podcast, we talk about: (1) How to forecast growth when economies lock-down. (2) Whether the policy responses so far will make a difference and how Asia is behaving differently. (3) The chances of a second-half recovery. (4) How the world will look after COVID. (5) How inflation could finally arise. (6) How the euro-area could finally meet its biggest challenge. We talk about this and much more. Make sure to subscribe to the show on Apple, Spotify or wherever you go for your podcasts. 

In this episode, I have a conversation with one of the leading experts on gold, John Butler. He has spent 25 years in the financial industry, worked at some of the top banks and has even written a book on gold (The Golden Revolution). In the podcast, we talk about: Valuation frameworks for gold The relationship between oil and real interest rates with gold The insurance properties of gold How gold behaves around regime changes in political and monetary systems Comparisons between gold and bitcoin Projections for gold in the next few years. It’s a great discussion, so please enjoy.

In this episode, we’re lucky to have a conversation with one of the most original macro thinkers, the Macro Dilettante. He prefers not to disclose his name, but I’ve known him for years and is a super experienced market pro having worked at asset managers, in alternative investments and at pension funds. Back in January, he warned me about the global consequences of COVID and I mistakenly didn’t heed his advice until much later. During our conversation, we talk about the importance of understanding time as well prices in markets, the significance of pension funds in this crisis, the possibility of bonds selling-off and what policymakers should do to fix the crisis.