Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Jeff is Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners. He started his career in portfolio management and equity research before focusing on broad investment research since the 2000s. In this podcast, we discuss: Do central banks believe in QE? Why QE didn’t generate inflation after GFC. What is money and can central banks control it? The importance of banks. What caused the 1970s inflation. The rise of the offshore dollar (euro-dollar) system. Why fiscal stimulus won’t work. The problem with market fragility and illiquidity. Central banks care about equity markets. What could generate inflation? Book that influenced Jeff: A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz)

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Boris focuses on global macro and EM. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. In this podcast, we discuss: Inflation outlook – the Europe surprise – inflation persistence. Will fiscal spending crowd out private spending? The best Europe trade. Which yields matter for EM. How important is China’s deleveraging goals? Where next for Chinese currency and bonds? Outlook for BRICS countries and which markets to buy. Machine learning vs regressions. Books that influenced Boris: Twenty-Eight Years In Wall Street (Clews), Economic Interdependence and War (Copeland), The Ashtray (Morris) and Twelve Virtues of Rationality (Yudkowsky). Current market views on bonds and equities.

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Bobby is partner and portfolio manager at Toscafund Asset Management. He is author of the widely read newsletter, Macro Eagle. He has been the UK representative of the German Economic Council. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats. In this podcast, we discuss: Why the backlash against Big Tech will continue. The unionization drive in the US. A new global corporate tax accord. The bullish case for Europe. Germany in a post-Merkel world. Biden’s differences to Obama. Biden’s tougher stance on China than Trump. Current market views on bonds and equities.

David Riley is Partner and Chief Investment Strategist of BlueBay Asset management – a USD70bn fixed income fund. Before Bluebay, David was global head of Fitch’s Sovereign and Supranational Group, responsible for more than 130 ratings of the world’s largest fixed-income issuers. Prior to Fitch, David was at HM Treasury where he advised on international economic and debt issues, including representing the UK at international debt restructuring negotiations at the Paris Club of Official Creditors. In this podcast, we discuss: How sustainable are US and developed market debt? Will the reflation trade continue for 2021? Peak pessimism on Euro-area. Dollar trend. Will corporates start defaulting? Impact of higher rates on credit. Which EM markets look attractive? The impact of ESG on the asset management industry. Books that influenced David: Fooled By Randomness (Taleb), Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman), Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Balance Sheet Recession (Koo).

Benn is the managing member and CIO of QVR. He was previously co-founder and co-portfolio manager of Mariner Coria in New York. Before that he was Head of Quantitative Research and Derivatives Trader for the Wells Fargo proprietary trading desk, which became Overland Advisors. He started his career as an emerging markets macroeconomist at the World Bank. He holds a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley. In this podcast, we discuss: How derivative markets changed after the 2008 financial crisis. The centrality of listed derivatives. Why understanding supply-demand dynamics is important. How complexity of strategies doesn’t give you an edge. Do short vol strategies work? How to manage convexity and tail risk. Derivatives to replace bonds as safe haven hedge? What risks are investors focusing on since COVID? Common mistakes by quants. Book that influenced Benn: The House of Morgan (Chernow).

Marco is Founder and CEO of MGM Innova Group, which includes a private equity and green infrastructure fund, and a multinational firm specializing in integrated sustainability and climate change services that facilitate a transition towards a low carbon economy. Prior to that, he worked as an advisor on climate change issues to the Japanese government. In 2002, the World Economic Forum named Mr. Monroy one of the 100 Global Leaders of Tomorrow. In this podcast, we discuss: Will climate change policies work? The state-of-play in cap and trade and carbon taxes. The importance of energy efficiency incentives. Will the Biden administration make a difference? What is climate finance? Role of renewables and nuclear energy. Landfill/carbon capture. Investor flows into ESG and green bonds. Books that influenced Marco: The Alchemist (Coelho), Outliers (Gladwell), Emotional Intelligence (Goleman), Man’s Search For Meaning (Frankl).

Zac is the CEO and Founder of BlockFi – a leading wealth management firm for crypto investors. Prior to starting BlockFi, he led business development teams at Orchard Platform, a broker dealer and RIA in the online lending sector, and Zibby, an online consumer lender. In this podcast, we discuss: The three use case of crypto – store of value, new commerce, and new payments system. Stablecoins are underappreciated. What is decentralized finance (defi). How you can earn interest on crypto assets. How to manage crypto lending books. Breakdown of market players. How to hedge your portfolio. Regulatory trends in crypto finance. Future of NFTs. Books that influenced Zac: The Hard Thing About Hard Things (Horowitz) and Zero To One (Thiel). Books Zac has recently read: No Rules Rules: Netflix and the Culture of Reinvention (Hastings) and Shantaram (Roberts).

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. James Aitken is the Founder and Managing Partner of Aitken Advisors, a research boutique for institutional investors which he started in 2009. Before that, James worked for UBS, AIG, JPMorgan and Macqaurie. In this podcast, we discuss: The real meaning of macro investing. The market has right tails as well as left tails. How to view recent rates market volatility. Why would Fed do yield curve control? Biden and the finance sector. How to hedge your portfolio. The importance of stock vigilantes. The different channels of inflation. The unexpected impact of US fiscal on wages. Books that influenced James: The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes (Doyle), Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes (Konnikova), Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders (Schwager), A Man for All Markets: Beating the Odds, from Las Vegas to Wall Street (Thorpe), An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets (Mackenzie)

Peter is Deputy Director of the ARC Energy Research Institute, a Managing Director of ARC Financial Corporation, an energy-focused private equity firm, and the creator of Energyphile, a multimedia project exploring the past, present and future of our energy circumstance. He is the author of three books, the bestselling A Thousand Barrels a Second, The End of Energy Obesity, and his latest The Investor Visit and Other Stories, which explores disruption, denial and transition in the energy business. He is also an Adjunct Professor at the University of Calgary. In this podcast, we discuss: The continuing reliance of the world on oil and gas. Path of renewables. Are latest clean energy expectations likely to be realised? Why clean tech is being highly valued. The impact of electric cars and batteries on metals. How the oil industry will evolve with ESG and clean tech trends. The role of carbon capture and big energy companies. Financing challenges in energy sector. Book that influenced Peter: Edison – His Life and Inventions.

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Ciamac is Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, where he has been since 2007. He also develops quantitative trading strategies at Bourbaki LLC, a quantitative investment advisor. A high school dropout, he received degrees at MIT, Cambridge, and Stanford. In this podcast, we discuss: Types of quant investing – prediction vs risk premia. Why machine learning is impacting finance more slowly than other domains (like vision and text). The pros and cons of using linear regressions. The advantages of machine learning in non-linear and complex markets. How to think about alternative and big data. Portfolio construction and combining signals. The importance of incorporating costs. Understanding time horizons of different markets. The trend to winner-takes-all with quant investors. Why bitcoin and crypto technology is special. Books that influenced Ciamac: The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie and Tibshirani), Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control: books 1 and 2 (Bertsekas), Active Portfolio Management (Grinold and Kahn). You can follow Ciamac on Twitter here and his work here