Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Christian Angermayer is an entrepreneur and investor and the founder of Apeiron Investment Group, his family office and merchant banking business. Apeiron focuses on Financial Services (especially fintech and crypto assets), Technology, Life Sciences, Media & Entertainment and Real Estate & Prop-Tech. In the podcast, we talk about: What has helped Christian become a successful investor and entrepreneur The positive history of psychedelics The medical potential for psychedelics in mental health Classifying ageing as a disease Breakthroughs in longevity medicine Why healthcare systems are so costly How money printing is reshaping the economy The transition from linear growth to exponential growth The US-China rivalry The future of crypto currencies What to know about space tech Why invest in movies Books mentioned on podcast: The Immortality Key (Muraresku), How to Change Your Mind (Pollan) Book that influenced Christian: Think and Grow Rich! (Hill), The Law of Attraction (Hicks)

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Josef Ackermann is the former chairman of the management board and the group executive committee at Deutsche Bank. Ackermann joined Deutsche Bank’s board of managing directors in 1996, where he was responsible for the investment banking division. He is also former chairman of the Board of Directors of Bank of Cyprus. Ackermann studied economics and social sciences at the University of St. Gallen, where he earned his doctorate. In the podcast, we talk about: Managing Deutsche Bank around the global financial crisis Banker compensation and bonuses Why European banks have underperformed US banks The need for European bank consolidation How will fintech disrupt banking The importance of capital markets in Europe The future of asset management Passive vs active investment. How Western financials can benefit from China Book that influenced Joe: Faustv (Goethe), In Search Of Excellence (Peters), Built To Last (Collins), The Effective Executive (Drucker), The One Minute Manager (Blanchard)

John Butler has 25 years’ experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks in research, strategy, asset allocation and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world’s largest institutional and private investors, and he has been a #1 ranked Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and the book ‘The Golden Revolution’. In the podcast, we talk about: Why stagflation is here The problem with large fiscal and public spending plans The moral hazard of Fed policy Why was inflation low after the global financial crisis? The absence of excess capacity and parallels to 1970s How to play a stagflation theme Is there a commodity supercycle? The future path of gold Why bitcoin won’t replace the dollar (or gold) The importance of risk management Book that influenced John: Money and Magic (Binswanger)

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Charles Goodhart CBE is Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance at the LSE, having previously been its Deputy Director. Previously, he had worked at the Bank of England for seventeen years including as Chief Adviser and later In 1997 as independent members of the Bank of England's new Monetary Policy Committee until May 2000. He is the developer of Goodhart's law, an economic law named after him. He has written numerous books including the graduate monetary textbook, 'Money, Information and Uncertainty', ‘The Regulatory Response to the Financial Crisis' (2009) and most recently ‘The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival’ (2020). In the podcast, we talk about: Importance of understanding money demand and the money multiplier Should central banks target monetary aggregates and house prices? The problem with the Fed’s new inflation targeting objectives. Understanding China’s integration to the global economy The challenges of an ageing population Factors that depressed inflation are now turning Why didn’t ageing Japan see inflation Why demographics in the US are inflationary Can India and Africa provide the necessary demographic boost to offset DM ageing? Can Tech replace the missing working age population? How to fix the global debt problem Books that influenced Charles: A Monetary History of the United States (Friedman, Schwartz), Golden Fetters (Eichengreen), the works of Dennis Robertson, James Tobin, Charles Kindleberger, and Robert Eisler

Dr. Adrian Williams is the UK's first Professor of Sleep Medicine. Adrian graduated from University College, London, UK, and after a lectureship at The Cardiothoracic Institute, Brompton Hospital in 1975 took up an appointment at Harvard, Boston, USA, followed by an invitation to University of California (UCLA) in 1977. In 1985 Professor Williams became tenured Professor of Medicine at UCLA and co-Director of the UCLA Sleep Laboratory. In 1994 he returned to London where he developed the Sleep Centre at Guy’s and St. Thomas’ now the most active in the UK, and continues in the full-time practice of Sleep Medicine. In addition, Professor Williams holds the UK’s first Chair in Sleep Medicine at Kings College, London, UK. In the podcast, we talk about: Why we sleep Impact of lack of sleep on decision-making Types of sleep non-REM and REM How much should we sleep? Does catch-up sleep on the weekend help? What triggers sleep Sleep apnea and snoring Sleep and temperature Managing jet lag Melatonin, sleeping pills, caffeine and alcohol Tips for better sleep Books that influenced Adrian: Sleep and Wakefulness (Kleitman, 1939), The Promise Of Sleep (Dement), Genius: Richard Feynman and Modern Physics (Gleick), Surely You're Joking Mr Feynman (Feynman), The Code Breaker (Isaacson), The Double Helix (Watson)  

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Sajid is currently the Conservative Member of Parliament for Bromsgrove. He has held two of the four ‘Great Offices Of State’ in the UK government: Chancellor of the Exchequer and Home Secretary. He was first elected to Parliament in 2010. Before that, he worked at Deutsche Bank and Chase Manhattan Bank. At Deutsche Bank, he helped build their emerging market businesses. Sajid was born in Rochdale (Manchester) and was raised in Bristol. He read Economic and Politics at Exeter University. In the podcast, we talk about: How has the UK handled the pandemic so far? The UK fiscal outlook – spending focuses and taxes How pandemic shocks differ from wars Why inflation could pick up The importance of climate change and the UK track record Results of the UK’s Integrated Review and centrality of climate change Why biodiversity also matters Will UK parliament’s unanimous support for climate change policy continue? UK’s global role in a post-Brexit world New measures to attract international talent to UK Possible future global alliances

Themos is the Head of Research at the macro hedge fund, Glen Point Capital. His previous roles included being Head of Fundamental Strategy at UBS and Head of EM FX Strategy at Goldman Sachs. In the podcast, we talk about: How investors are not understanding the impact of the US stimulus Will price increases be transitory? How healthy is the US labour market? Important shifts in China policy How to play the Euro-area recovery Investors are missing key EM trends Favourite EM markets Books that influenced Themos: Economics in Perspective (Galbraith) and A Theory of Justice (Rawls)

Dominique is one of my favourite macro thinkers and economists – she’s so good, we hired her to work for Macro Hive. As for her background, she’s worked at Bridgewater, Barclays and RBS. And before that she worked on policy and research at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank. In the podcast, we talk about: The US labour supply problem and its impact on growth for the rest of 2021 The difference between Democrat and Republican states on COVID Can inflation move higher? How income inequality drives asset markets and the economy The impact of more active fiscal policy on growth and inflation Outlook on Germany and China Timing the next big US bond sell-off Books that influenced Dominique: Radical Uncertainty (King, Kay), The Social Conquest of Earth (Wilson)

Phil is one of my favourite global economists. Currently, he runs his own economic research outfit. Before that he worked at JPMorgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor. In the podcast, we talk about: COVID has led to the biggest change to inflation regime since early 1970s. Private sector to acquire real assets rather than financial assets. High inflation likely to persist over 2022 and 2023. Fed will be in play sooner than expected. Goods sector could see ‘recession’ in 2021 on supply constraints. Summer risks around US fiscal and debt ceiling. EM local markets appear mispriced. Climate change policies lead to more investment and higher prices. UK in secular decline. Book that has recently engaged Phil Suttle: John Maynard Keynes: 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman (Skidelsky).

Wolfgang Münchau, co-founder and director of Eurointelligence and former Financial Times columnist, dives into Germany's political landscape. He critiques the CDU's leadership under Armin Laschet and highlights the rising Greens and their fiscal agendas. The discussion expands to the political fallout from the COVID-19 response, including public trust issues. Münchau also questions the stability of the Eurozone amidst these political shifts, pondering the need for a fiscal union to address economic disparities.