Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

David has over 30 years’ experience of managing risk across global markets. David is the CIO of Singapore-based Convex strategies - which focuses on risk management including protecting against dislocations in asset markets. Prior to launching Convex Strategies, he served as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Artradis Fund Management in Singapore. Earlier in his career, David built and ran Asian and Global EM trading businesses for RBS (ABN AMRO Group), Bankers Trust and Bank of America. David holds an MBA from University of California, Berkeley. He currently sits on the Monetary Authority of Singapore Markets Committee (SFEMC). In this podcast we discuss: The confusion between measuring risk and managing risk The problem with value-at-risk and defining risk What is convexity Why buying options is not ‘expensive’ Importance of compound returns over arithmetic returns How to think about ergodicity Why allocation to bonds don’t provide the right downside protection Getting your defense right, insurance and long vol strategies The role of central banks in shifting equity-bond correlations The importance of time in convexity strategies The growing fragility in the financial system Managing correlation risk Books that influenced David: How Nature Works (Bak), The Misbehaviour of Markets (Mandelbrot), The Incerto Collection (Taleb), The Road to Serfdom (Hayek), Ubiquity (Buchanan), Radical Uncertainty (King)

Todd Edgar has over 28 years’ experience in financial markets. He has spent the last 2 years as CIO of Atreaus Family, a family office, allocating capital to equities, rates, commodities, FX, Crypto and real estate. Prior to that, he spent 9 years as Founder of Atreaus Capital, a global macro hedge fund with a peak AUM of over $3bn. He also served as Global Head of Macro Proprietary at Barclays Capital and before that as Global Head of the Commodities and FX Proprietary Trading at JPMorgan. Todd has also been a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corp. He graduated from the University of New South Wales, Sydney, currently lives on Long Island, NY. In this podcast we discuss: Challenges of running a hedge fund How have markets changed since the global financial crisis (2008) Approach to investing Reasons for being long China bonds PBoC the new Bundesbank Are commodities in a new supercycle? How to think about inflation Views on crypto markets How to avoid losses impacting your future performance Advice from Paul Tudor Jones Book that influenced Todd: Market Wizards (Schwager) and Trading in the Zone (Douglas)

David is the author of the blog, David Woo Unbound. Before that, he was Head of Global Rates, FX and EM Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. In that role, he was responsible for the bank’s views and forecasts for developed and emerging sovereign bond yields and exchange rates. He was earlier at Barclays Capital, Citigroup and the IMF. David has a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University. In this podcast we discuss: Why news media has become more politicised The impact of globalization on inequality What explains countries with high COVID cases Why Trump was right on vaccine vs COVID elimination COVID to remain a factor in coming years Return to stagflation Mnuchin under-rated as Treasury Secretary, Yellen over-rated Supply-side policies/inequality under Trump The fundamental shifts in US-China relations China tech policy is what Biden wishes he could do Book that influenced David: Predictioneer (de Mesquita)

Nikhil recently published an influential investment report titled ‘Ethereum, The Triple Halving’, and has been researching cryptocurrencies and the Ethereum ecosystem since 2020. Outside of markets, Nikhil is an incoming medical resident at University of Colorado internal medicine. Nikhil completed his undergraduate degree at Rice University where he studied Philosophy and Cognitive Science. He then completed his medical school at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. In this podcast we discuss: Key differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum Consensus algorithms: proof-of-work vs proof-of stake The selling pressure of miners on Bitcoin The triple halving for Ethereum Impact of EIP1559 and halving Base case price target for Ethereum of $30,000-$50,000 Dynamics of an overshoot to $150,000 The growth of staking derivatives Can Cardano and Solana dislodge Ethereum Future of NFT and the metaverse Book that influenced Nikhil: Doing Good Better (MacAskill)

In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of “Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today” and is the coauthor of “The Book of Alternative Data”, which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss: 1. Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry 2. How to design good trading models 3. Avoiding data mining 4. Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded 5. Why trend-following models have underperformed 6. Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows 7. Importance of reducing transaction costs 8. Types of alternative data 9. How to use news data 10. The non-technical challenges of using alternative data 11. Why Python is an important complement to Excel

Alberto is Head of Global Credit strategies and Portfolio Manager of the Algebris Global Credit Opportunities fund, a global strategy investing in bonds, credit and equities. Prior to Algebris, Alberto was Managing Director and Head of Global Macro Credit Research at RBS (2011-2016). His team was top ranked in Institutional Investor’s All-Europe Fixed Income survey for Investment Grade, High Yield Research and Fixed Income Strategy, for four years running. Previously, Alberto was a macro strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York (2007-2011) and previously he was at Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch in London (2004-2007), where he co-authored some of the early research on the credit derivatives market.In this podcast we discuss:  The challenge to neo-liberal capitalism  Biden’s push for infrastructure and future trade policy China’s paradox markets vs centralisation COVID accelerated history Corporate inequality  The effects of QE infinity  The barbell approach to investing in a low yield world  Favoured sectors  Europe vs US equity allocations  Why EM risks are high  Inflation persistence  Lessons learned as an investor Books that influenced Alberto: In Defence of Open Society (Soros), The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Popper), The Myth of Capitalism (Tepper), The Hidden Wealth of Nations (Zucman et al), Geopolitical Alpha (Papic), Homo Deus (Harari) and Brave New World (Huxley) 

This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare. Anna founded Sonya Capital Management in December 2016. Prior to that, Anna spent over twenty years at Citigroup, where she oversaw a multi-billion dollar balance sheet and large teams of traders as the Head of the Strategic Trading Desk, Co-Head of Risk Treasury and Head of the Agency MBS trading desk. Anna traded through eight central bank tightening and easing cycles and a few financial crises, such as the Asian financial crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial crisis. When she left Citigroup, the WSJ featured her as ‘Citigroup's last proprietary trader’. She graduated with honours from Princeton University with a degree in Mathematics. In this podcast we discuss: Difference between trading on the sell-side versus at own fund Framework used to invest in markets How to use flow information to validate views The value of machine learning How to identify market regime changes The impact of risk transfers on market volatility How bubbles can be rational The difference between high-frequency trading and macro Views on the current reflation theme Two major risks: US tax changes and China decoupling Market to watch - yen Views on crypto markets Books that influenced Anna: The Second Machine Age (Brynjolfsson, Mcafee), Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman)

Roger Garside, former diplomat and author, discusses the fragility of China, the role of corruption, the centralization of power by President Xi, and the potential for a coup. We also explore the impact of COVID on China's political structure and the role of the US in regime change.

Cross-exchange arbitrage in crypto How lending works in bitcoin and crypto Futures and interest rates on bitcoin Dynamics of the May bitcoin correction Divergence between US and China trading On-chain features and smart contracts Yield farming Issues around Tether Types of investors in crypto Call over-writing strategies Books that influenced Roshun: The Beginning of Infinity (Deutsch), The Selfish Gene (Dawkins), Sapiens (Harari), The Sovereign Individual (Davidson), The Energy World Is Flat (Lacalle and Parrila), and The Three-Body Problem (Liu)

Dr. Charles D. Ellis is the founder and former managing partner of Greenwich Associates, an international consultancy where he advised large institutional investors, foundations, and government organizations in more than 130 financial markets across the globe. He taught investment management courses at the Yale School of Management and at Harvard Business School. He sat on the Board of Directors of The Vanguard Group. In addition, Charley was a successor trustee of Yale University, where he chaired the university’s investment committee with David Swensen. He is the author of a number of books including Winning the Loser’s Game, which has recently come out in its 8th edition. In the podcast, we talk about: Why it has become harder for investors to outperform the market The rise of highly professional investors The difficulty of finding good investment managers The poor returns of investment managers The importance of time in assessing performance Market timing versus factor investing The impact of monetary policy on markets The problem with bond investing Outlook for equity returns Understanding your total portfolio Think over long time horizons and importance of character Benefit from intelligence of others through index investing Books/articles that influenced Charley: Warren Buffet’s annual letters, The Theory of Investment Value (John Burr Williams), Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings (Philip Fisher), Security Analysis (Graham and Dodd), Inside the Yield Book (Martin Leibowitz), Pioneering Portfolio Management (David Swensen)