Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf) is the author of The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing educational macroeconomic insights & actionable investment ideas. Previously, he was the head of a $20 bn Investment Portfolio for a large European bank. In this podcast we discuss: How money is created, where the credit cycle is right now, why the European growth cycle looks better than the US, and ECB hikes. On trades, Alf discussed long EUR/USD and long NASDAQ/short Russell trades and how asset swap trades work. We also talked about Draghi and Italian risks, China's credit cycle turn, and long China real estate trade. Finally, Alf revealed his favourite trade - US 2s10s flatteners, and the books that influenced him the most: Pragmatic Capitalism (Roche), Inside the House of Money (Drobny) and The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics (Koo).

Adam is a Managing Director and Global Head of G10 FX Options Trading at Goldman Sachs. Prior to this, he was an FX Volatility Portfolio Manager at PIMCO, and he has worked as a vanilla and exotic FX options trader at Barclays Investment Bank in London. He is the author of Foreign Exchange: Practical Asset Pricing and Macroeconomic Theory (forthcoming, 2022), and Volatility: Practical Options Theory (2018). Adam holds a PhD in financial mathematics and economics from Imperial College London, an MSc in applied mathematics from Oxford University, and an MSci, and BA in physics from Cambridge University. In this podcast we discuss: Why investors and traders need to understand finance theory, risk premia strategies, and understanding risk premium through umbrellas and rainy weather. We also covered the common risk premia strategies in FX markets, where currency volatility comes from, options markets, rules of thumb for trading options, and when to use options. Finally, on the more personal side, Adam revealed the books that have influenced him the most: Asset Pricing (Cochrane) and End of Alchemy (King).

Shahin Vallée is head of the Geo-Economics Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). Before the German Council, Shahin was a senior economist for Soros Fund Management, and also served as a personal advisor to George Soros. Prior to that, he was the economic advisor to Emmanuel Macron at the French Ministry for the Economy and Finance, where he focused on European economic affairs. Between 2012 and 2014, Shahin was the economic advisor to President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy. In this podcast we discuss: How Europe fits into the US-China conflict Europe's nuclear energy dilemma Russia/Ukraine risks Chances of Euro break-up If the EU fiscal policy changed after COVID Whether the ECB will hike in 2022 Whether Macron wins the French elections in April Germany in a post-Merkel world Books that influenced Shahin: Lords of Finance (Ahamed) and The Alchemy Of Finance (Soros)

Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. Prior to forming Morgan Creek in 2004, Mark was President, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of UNC Management Company, the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, from 1998 to 2004. Until 1998, Mark was the Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office where he joined as the Assistant Investment Officer in October of 1993. In this podcast we discuss: The importance of the asset allocation decision rather than trading The investment value of ownership The problem with the 60:40 model The coming debt default How to manage risk Innovation as an asset class Understanding the crypto revolution How to pick the right crypto markets and avoid Ponzi schemes Favourite coins/tokens Favourite equity sectors and bonds for 2022 Learning from star investors Books that influenced Mark: The Alchemist (Coelho) and The Tao Jones Averages (Goodspeed)

Mark Stanwyck is the Co-Founder of Avalaunch - the first protocol, exclusively for the Avalanche ecosystem, to offer projects a platform for decentralized fundraising. Rick Seeger is the Co-Founder of Oh! Finance - an optimized yield-generation protocol. In this podcast we discuss: Comparison of layer one protocols from Ethereum to Avalanche Use cases in crypto How GameFi works How traditional gaming companies respond to GameFi Ways in which DeFi offers high yields What the criteria are to determine the risk of DeFi yields Whether Coinbase and other centralised exchanges impact DeFi How fundraising works in crypto Comparisons of VC vs decentralised user-driven fundraising Books that influenced Mark and Rick: The History of Money (Weatherford) and The Compound Effect (Hardy)

Ari Paul is co-founder and CIO of BlockTower Capital. BlockTower is a crypto and blockchain investment firm, applying professional trading, investing and portfolio management to this digital asset class. It is funded by well-known investors such as A16z and Union Square Ventures. Before BlockTower, Ari was a portfolio manager for the University of Chicago's $8 billion endowment, and a derivatives market maker and proprietary trader for Susquehanna International Group (SIG). In this podcast we discuss: How to value bitcoin Understanding drivers of crypto markets What flows have driven crypto in recent years? Business for exchanges like UniSwap The real benefit of crypto is co-ordination power Trends in layer one protocols like Ethereum and Solana Will switch to Proof of Stake make a difference? What stage of hype cycle are Metaverse and DeFi tokens? Risk is about sizing positions Books/articles that influenced Ari: Money, blockchains, and social scalability (Nick Szabo), Shelling Out: The Origin Of Money (Szabo), Debt: The First 5000 Years (Graeber)

On this special episode, we turn the tables and Bilal becomes the guest as Andrew Simon, our COO of Macro Hive and business partner, does the interviewing this time. Bilal Hafeez is the Founder and CEO of Macro Hive. Prior to this, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura between 2016 and 2019. Before that Bilal held various senior roles at Deutsche Bank between 2002 and 2015 including Head of Multi-Asset Research, Advisor to the CEO, Head of Asia Research in Singapore and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Research. Bilal started his career at J.P. Morgan in 1998. In this podcast we discuss: [3:03] - Lessons learned at JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Nomura [ 38:22] - Views on inflation and why yields are low How to understand the market impact of COVID Tech booms and crypto What economists get wrong about tech New frontier of the digital economy China's challenge [01:21:48] Favourite investment lessons Advice to new starters in finance Productivity tips Books that influenced Bilal: The Black Swan (Taleb) Beginning of Infinity )Deutsch), Superforecasting (Tetlock, Gardner) The Great Crash 1929 (Galbraith) Liar's Poker (Lewis) A Technique for Producing Ideas (Young) It Doesn't Have to Be Crazy at Work (Fried) Bloomberg (Bloomberg) The Rumi Collection (Rumi, Helminski) The Complete Works of William Shakespeare (Shakespeare) Meditations (Aurelius) How To Improve Your Marriage Without Talking About It (Lowe, Stosny) Non-Violent Communication (Rosenberg) Raising Boys and Raising Girls (Biddulph)

Fabio is a Deputy Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the IMF. He is responsible for the Global Financial Stability Report that gives the IMF's assessment of global financial stability risks. Prior to joining the IMF, Fabio was a Senior Associate Director in the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board. Between October 2016 and June 2017, Fabio was Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Financial Stability and Regulation at the U.S. Department of Treasury. In this podcast we discuss: How COVID shocks transmit to markets and the economy Why haven't bankruptcies picked up? The likely impact of Omicron How to know if inflation will be transitory How leveraged are markets? What are the risks to China? How stable are stablecoins? The investment challenge for climate policy Books that influenced Fabio: Barbarians at the Gate (Burrough, Helyar), The Divine Comedy (Dante)

Omicron, the name of the new Covid-19 variant that has recently emerged, caused panic across the world and a selloff in risk on Friday. Following an influx of questions from The Hive, we held an urgent webinar to discuss the strain and its potential impacts on financial markets. Professor Justin Stebbing of the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial College London joined us to provide his expert opinion. Justin has published in The Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19 and in Foreign Affairs on China's global role in vaccine distribution. To explore the possible economic and financial market implications, Macro Hive CEO Bilal Hafeez and Senior Strategist Dominique Dwor-Frecaut provide their views.

Nancy Davis is the founder and managing partner of Quadratic Capital Management. She is the portfolio manager for The Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL). She founded Quadratic Capital in 2013. She began her career at Goldman Sachs where she spent nearly ten years, the last seven with the proprietary trading group where she rose to become the Head of Credit, Derivatives and OTC Trading. Prior to starting Quadratic, she served as a portfolio manager at Highbridge Capital Management where she managed $500 million of capital in a derivatives only portfolio. She later served in a senior executive role at AllianceBernstein. In this podcast we discuss: Why ETFs are attractive wrappers for active strategies How best to capture true inflation risk The pros and cons of investing in TIPs How to think about spread exposure Taking advantage of the shape of forward curve to fund option premium How the IVOL strategy performed during COVID Are real yields too low? Risks for 2022 including stagflation