Animal Spirits Podcast

Gabby Santos, J.P. Morgan's Chief Market Strategist for the Americas, dives into the bank's annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report. She discusses the influence of economic nationalism, fiscal activism, and AI innovation on market dynamics. Gabby explains why traditional 60-40 portfolios may struggle and highlights alternatives like gold and real estate for better diversification. She also explores the potential for international markets to outperform the U.S. and weighs the impact of tech on inflation. Plus, is there a tech bubble? Gabby shares her insights!

Morgan Housel, author and finance writer known for his insights on the psychology of money, joins the conversation to explore how spending reflects our values. He shares thoughts on why people brag about their wealth and how luxury purchases can stem from insecurity. The discussion also touches on balancing present enjoyment with future regrets in spending, the joys of tipping, and the nuances of valuing experiences over material possessions. Housel emphasizes the importance of generosity and intention, all while reflecting on changing priorities through parenting.

Delve into the debate on AI bubbles, exploring media sentiment and Jesse Livermore's market insights. Discover the rationale against gold investments and the implications of 5x leveraged ETFs. A lively discussion on heavily shorted stocks reveals their unexpected outperformance. Will Bitcoin soar to $200k by 2027? The hosts also tackle the rising average car price and ponder the effects of consumer credit trends. Plus, enjoy a countdown of top horror films just in time for Halloween!

Lance Humphrey, head of portfolio management at Victory Capital, shares insights on integrating value and momentum in investing. He discusses why value strategies attract more capital than momentum and highlights the risks of high-valuation momentum. Lance explains Victory's approach to portfolio construction, utilizing a blend of value and momentum signals to navigate market conditions. He also uncovers the different behaviors of these factors across various markets and emphasizes the importance of risk-adjusted weighting for optimal performance.

Dave Thornton, Co-founder, CEO, and CIO of Vested, dives into the complexities of helping startup employees exercise options. He explains the common challenges faced by employees, particularly the 90-day exercise problem. Thornton discusses Vested's innovative funding model that allows employees to avoid losing shares. He also explores how Vested uses machine learning to assess fair market values of private companies and the importance of diversification in venture capital investments, all while navigating the competitive landscape of employee liquidity programs.

The hosts dive into the challenge of predicting market tops and why earnings play a crucial role in this elusive game. They unravel recent market corrections and explore surprising data showing increased stock ownership among low-income Americans. The discussion shifts to the soaring gold prices, driven by central banks and geopolitical tensions. Plus, they tackle the cash-on-the-sidelines myth, emerging trends in the airline industry, and the economic footprint of private companies. It's a lively analysis of current market dynamics!

Scott Litman, Managing Director at GCM Grosvenor, dives into the fascinating world of infrastructure investing. He discusses the surging demand for data centers, emphasizing the unique risks and opportunities they present. Scott also explores the divide between energy and digital infrastructure, forecasting a 15–20 year build-out phase. He reveals different access points for investors and the role of leverage in infrastructure deals. With insights on cash flows, yields, and deal sourcing, Litman provides a comprehensive look at why advisors are increasingly including infrastructure in alternative portfolios.

Dive into the chaotic world of the AI boom, where speculation feels eerily reminiscent of 1999. The hosts explore the bubble surrounding AI investments and the gap between the elite 1% and the struggling 90%. They discuss the intriguing performance of international stocks and the frenzy of retail investors chasing low-quality junk stocks. Amidst the financial talk, lighter moments emerge with reflections on Taylor Swift and family life, blending entertainment with candid insights into current market dynamics.

Join Jason Duko, Executive Vice President and Portfolio Manager at PIMCO, as he shares insights on the current landscape of fixed income and credit markets. He highlights PIMCO's macro view on growth and inflation amid a challenging bond market. Duko explains why bonds are becoming attractive again and contrasts unsecured high yield with secured bank loans. He also delves into the impact of private credit on public markets and discusses the value in agency mortgage securities and private investment-grade debt funding AI infrastructure. A must-listen for investment enthusiasts!

Discover why retailers like Walmart and Costco are thriving despite market ups and downs. Dive into the debate on whether the AI boom is a bubble or a sound investment. Learn how emerging markets are outperforming and the surprising role of rich households in shaping economic sentiment. The hosts dissect improved investor behavior, fueled by cheap index funds, and take a lighthearted detour into travel stories and mortgage strategies. Plus, get insights on the recent slowdown in private equity and tips on navigating the current economic landscape.