Animal Spirits Podcast Talk Your Book: The State of the Housing Market
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Nov 29, 2025 The conversation dives into the real statistics of first-time homebuyers, challenging misleading data from the NAR survey. Logan Mohtashami highlights the impact of higher mortgage rates on inventory and price growth, likening it to past trends. He advocates for patience in restoring housing affordability through wage growth rather than subsidies. Regional variations in housing markets are unpacked, as Logan warns against the dangers of 50-year mortgages. Lastly, he debunks sensationalized headlines, urging listeners to focus on real-time data and median prices.
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Misleading First-Time Buyer Stat
- The widely-cited rise in median age of first-time buyers is driven by a faulty NAR survey sample.
- Logan Mohtashami shows alternative datasets that keep first-time buyer share near historical levels (32–36%).
Let Market Adjustment Play Out
- Endure rather than subsidize housing; higher rates have already raised inventory and cooled price growth.
- Let wages rise and price growth slow naturally instead of implementing risky policy fixes like 50-year mortgages.
The Six Percent Demand Threshold
- Housing demand improves notably when mortgage rates approach ~6%.
- Mohtashami notes multiple instances where purchase apps and sales grew as rates dipped toward six percent.