Animal Spirits Podcast Wait, Are We in a Recession??? (EP. 440)
104 snips
Nov 26, 2025 In a lively discussion, hosts dive into the unusual stock market movements and the impact of algorithm-driven trading. They ponder whether we’re facing a recession as labor trends weaken and debate the necessity of timely Fed cuts. The excitement around Google's AI advancements sparks a conversation about investment strategies in tech. Meanwhile, they explore the emotional volatility of crypto and share personal anecdotes about Disney experiences. The conversation wraps up with movie recommendations and reflections on the market's current state.
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Good News Can Signal Market Tops
- Markets can reverse sharply on seemingly positive news because pricing already reflects expectations.
- Michael Batnick warns that failing to rally on great news can signal a market top and heighten uncertainty.
Algo Moves Don't Always Last
- Short-term computer-driven trades can cause violent intraday swings without lasting follow-through.
- Ben Carlson notes computers have no memory, explaining quick reversals and subsequent recoveries.
Earnings, Not Multiples, Drove 2025 Gains
- 2025's market gains came from earnings growth rather than multiple expansion.
- That pattern suggests doubt about sustainability even amid rising margins and tech advances.