Animal Spirits Podcast

All-Time Highs Should Feel Better Than This

74 snips
Dec 17, 2025
The stock market rally is broadening, with small caps showing strength despite concerns over AI. Howard Marks delivers sage advice on cautious investing amidst uncertainty. They debate the potential impact of rising unemployment on earnings and explore inflation's hidden pains in housing and transportation. The feasibility of space data centers sparks an intriguing discussion, while retail investors learn tough lessons from concentrated AI bets. Plus, they dive into movie recommendations and the shifting landscape of streaming services.
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INSIGHT

Broad Market Rally, Not Just Mega Caps

  • The market rally has broadened beyond the mega-cap leaders and many indices are hitting all-time highs.
  • Equal-weight and small-cap strength suggest a market of stocks, not a single-stock market.
INSIGHT

Mega Cap Multiples Aren't Classic Bubble Signals

  • Microsoft and Nvidia haven't shown classic bubble multiple expansion since ChatGPT's debut.
  • Sideways or contracting forward P/E behavior suggests current action is not typical bubble behavior.
ADVICE

Avoid Extremes — Take Moderate Positions

  • Avoid extreme all-in or all-out positions around AI uncertainty and balance risk with participation.
  • Take moderate, selective positions and acknowledge the risk of ruin if things go badly.
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