Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, dives into the intricacies of the bond market. He argues that bonds are 'fully cooked' without a recession on the horizon. Bassman shares his top trading strategies, emphasizing selling interest rate volatility and leveraging agency MBS. He discusses navigating mortgage bonds, the impact of Fed policies, and the importance of risk management in credit markets. Listeners gain insights into the dynamics of interest rates and the essential role of diversification in investment strategies.

Leland Miller, co-founder and CEO of China Beige Book, provides sharp insights into China's recent market rally driven by central bank stimulus measures. He analyzes how these moves may stabilize rather than stimulate the economy. The conversation also covers the challenges facing the credit market, including rising delinquencies and the troubled real estate sector. Miller highlights the concerning decline in Chinese startups and the effects of trade wars on the semiconductor industry, painting a complex picture of China's economic landscape.

Neil Dutta, the Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research, shares his insights on the current economic climate. He discusses the Federal Reserve's strategic rate cuts and their implications for job growth. Dutta emphasizes that a soft landing is still achievable despite softening economic data. The conversation also covers the housing market's impact on job openings, labor market stability, and inflation dynamics, providing a comprehensive look at the complexities of today's economy.

Kris Sidial, Co-CIO of Ambrus Group, shares his expertise on volatility markets and the recent sell-off in August. He discusses the dangers for short volatility traders, emphasizing the deepening risks as market conditions fluctuate. Kris analyzes how VIX pricing is impacted by market mechanics and liquidity challenges. He also highlights the importance of portfolio rebalancing and diversification to mitigate potential downturns. With insights on tail risk and the challenges in options trading, this conversation is a must-listen for market enthusiasts.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research, dives into the Federal Reserve's historic 50 basis point interest rate cut. She discusses the tensions within the Fed regarding interest rate decisions and the discrepancies in labor market data. Danielle highlights worrisome trends in layoffs and rising unemployment, connecting them to potential recession indicators. She also examines stock market bubbles and economic uncertainty, offering insights into consumer spending and the implications for fiscal policy amidst challenging economic landscapes.

Joseph Wang, a former senior trader for the New York Fed and the mind behind FedGuy.com, shares insights into the Fed's latest interest rate cuts and their unexpected bearish implications for the stock market. He discusses the Fed's evolving view on labor markets, the tension between market expectations and official projections, and the potential effects of upcoming elections on monetary policy. Wang also touches on geopolitical risks and their swift impact on market sentiment, urging a careful approach to navigating this complex economic landscape.

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. First episode going out with Joseph Wang on September 18, shortly after the Federal Reserve begins its cutting rate cycle.Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96