Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Juliette Declercq, the founder of JDI Research, is a macroeconomic whiz who shares her insights on the shifting landscape of the U.S. economy. She argues that recession looms larger than inflation for the coming years. Declercq emphasizes the role of debt and immigration in economic growth, and expresses optimism about the dollar's strength and bond market trends. The discussion also touches on the impact of tariffs and the challenges faced by labor dynamics and productivity, providing a compelling view of market predictions and investment strategies for the future.

In this discussion, Chris Brown, CIO and founder of Aristides Capital, shares his remarkable journey from Air Force doctor to hedge fund success, boasting a 16-year record of no losing years. He highlights how meticulous strategies, hiring passionate talent, and rigorous performance analysis have driven their 1,000% returns. Brown emphasizes the importance of relationships with high-net-worth and institutional investors, while stressing the need for transparency and authenticity in the investment process—all delivered with an engaging sense of humor.

Andy Constan, a veteran macro trader and publisher of the Damped Spring Report, dives into the current state of financial markets. He highlights the struggles small businesses face with rising interest rates and examines the Fed's confusing rate dynamics. Constan shares insights on MicroStrategy's complex Bitcoin investments and levered ETFs, warning of associated risks. He emphasizes the need for a hawkish Federal Reserve approach to stabilize an increasingly abnormal financial landscape, framing the discussion around evolving economic conditions.

Joseph Wang, a former senior trader at the New York Fed and author of "Central Banking 101," teams up with George Goncalves, Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities. They delve into the Federal Reserve's strategy for 2025, examining the impact of rising interest rates and political shifts. The duo discusses the challenges of small businesses amidst high rates, the implications of trade tariffs, and potential rate cuts. They explore how these factors could influence market sentiment, the economy, and future Federal Reserve policies.

Farid Guindo, CIO and founder of Drill Capital Management, discusses the challenges and dynamics of launching hedge funds, particularly through spinouts. He shares insights on how mentorship shaped his journey, emphasizing transparency and relationship-building. Guindo explains the strategy behind Drill Capital's focus on clean energy investments and the significance of operational support in fund launches. His experiences with Tiger Cubs highlight the importance of adapting hedge fund strategies and cultivating a diverse investor base for long-term success.

Dr. Elham Saeidinezhad, a Term Assistant Professor of Economics at Barnard College and Market Structure Fellow at the Jain Family Institute, dives into the intriguing dynamics of banks functioning as synthetic hedge funds. She discusses the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, highlighting the role of interest rate swaps in its collapse. Elham also explores the complexities of private credit ETFs and the evolving relationship between banks and non-banking entities. Her insights shed light on the regulatory challenges and risks facing today’s financial markets.

Warren Pies, a financial expert from 3Fourteen Research, dives deep into market dynamics and the potential for S&P 500 growth. He discusses the impact of Federal Reserve policies on small-cap and mid-cap stocks, revealing a split recovery favoring larger corporations. Pies shares insights on effective investment strategies, emphasizing quality stock selection and the importance of return on invested capital. He also explores the current commodities landscape, weighing the complexities of oil versus a bullish outlook on gold and Bitcoin.

Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Capital and a pioneer in quantitative investing, discusses how his firm thrives on high-quality research, having published nearly 500 pieces since 2014. He highlights the essence of authenticity in building investor relationships and the compliance nuances in research publishing. The conversation also touches on fostering human capital, learning from entrepreneurial mistakes, and employing a SaaS approach to achieving product-market fit, all while adapting to diverse investor profiles in the hedge fund landscape.

James Davolos, portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics, shares his insights on investing in inflation-resistant companies. He discusses the challenges of managing funds in an inflationary environment and questions the traditional 2% inflation target. The conversation dives into the evolving landscape of West Texas, transforming from grazing land to a tech and energy hub, as well as the strategic advantages of financial exchanges amid market volatility. Davolos also highlights the importance of concentrated investment strategies for capturing unique opportunities.

Jason Shapiro, a veteran trader and founder of the Crowded Market Report, shares his contrarian insights on today's financial markets. He argues that the crowded long dollar trade may pave the way for a Euro rally. Shapiro highlights that traders could be too short on oil and natural gas, while maintaining a neutral stance on equities due to short-term risks. Their conversation also dives into the complexities of market reactions to political changes and the impacts on currencies and commodities.