Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research and portfolio manager of $FCTE, shares insights on his remarkable achievement of raising over $450 million for his ETF in under six months. He discusses the critical role of research in attracting investor interest and how strong client relationships can redefine traditional interactions. Warren emphasizes a disciplined, long-term investment approach over fleeting trends and provides a glimpse into the unique strategies that drive his innovative ETF's success.

Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital, shares his expert insights on global liquidity trends and the impending liquidity cycle peak. He analyzes the pivotal role of central banks and cross-border capital flows, warning of potential challenges ahead as refinancing needs grow. Howell also discusses asset dynamics, pointing to the importance of gold and Bitcoin in investment strategies. With a cautious outlook, he highlights the risks associated with the 'everything bust' and the U.S. dollar's dominance in shaping future economic landscapes.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist of QI Research, shares her sharp insights on the U.S. economy and job market. She argues that the nation is already in a recession, predicting its true impact will surface by January 29, 2025. DiMartino discusses the rise in unemployment, stealth layoffs, and the burgeoning gig economy's role in shaping labor market dynamics. Additionally, she examines market volatility in the wake of shifting interest rates and political influences, raising alarms about the sustainability of recent stock market gains.

Max Wiethe, a finance expert and host of the Other People’s Money podcast, joins Jack Farley to dissect the recent steep sell-off in the stock market tied to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. They delve into the implications of interest rate adjustments and the balancing act the Fed faces amid inflation and unemployment concerns. The duo debates the future of monetary policy, including potential cuts in 2025, and discusses global currency trends, particularly how the euro may weaken against the dollar due to differing central bank strategies.

Noel Smith, Founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management, is a seasoned proprietary trader who has shifted gears to hedge fund management. He unveils the lucrative secrets of prop trading, emphasizing why it often yields higher returns. The challenges of raising capital surprise him, as do the essential roles of relationships and likability in achieving success. Smith also delves into volatility trading strategies, the predictive power of options, and the unique hurdles faced in biotech stock trading, all while highlighting the importance of adaptability in today’s market.

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at StoneX, shares his insights on the perilous economic landscape leading up to 2025. He discusses how a lower 2024 inflation rate will squeeze government benefits like Social Security through COLA adjustments. Deluard warns of a strong U.S. dollar impacting corporate earnings and predicts potential spending cuts at state and local levels. He also provides a keen analysis of the political turmoil in France and its broader macroeconomic implications.

Felix Zulauf, a renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf Consulting, shares his insights on market trends and economic forecasts. He predicts a significant correction in the S&P 500 by early 2025, sparking concerns over the Yen carry trade and its potential impact on liquidity. Zulauf discusses the precarious balance in bond yields amidst a secular bear market, alongside the outlook for commodities like oil and gold. He emphasizes the complex interplay of tariffs, economic disparities, and the unpredictable ride that 2025 may bring for investors.

Jamie Carter, Partner and Managing Director at Variis Partners, shares his extensive experience in emerging markets investment. He discusses the stark distinctions between long-only businesses and hedge funds. Carter highlights challenges in raising capital across the US, UK, and Europe, and why emerging markets are crucial for active management. He also addresses the impact of political policies on global markets and the importance of local knowledge in navigating these complex investment landscapes.

Recent job reports reveal a more nuanced labor market, particularly in retail, challenging negative interpretations. Positive growth in sectors like healthcare contrasts with bleak headlines. The discussion explores the independence of central banks amidst political pressures and the complex relationship between monetary policy and economic indicators. Stock market dynamics show significant growth, fueled by contrasting views. Political changes are set to impact inflation and job markets, while the podcast's format evolves to foster engaging finance conversations.

Juliette Declercq, the founder of JDI Research, is a macroeconomic whiz who shares her insights on the shifting landscape of the U.S. economy. She argues that recession looms larger than inflation for the coming years. Declercq emphasizes the role of debt and immigration in economic growth, and expresses optimism about the dollar's strength and bond market trends. The discussion also touches on the impact of tariffs and the challenges faced by labor dynamics and productivity, providing a compelling view of market predictions and investment strategies for the future.