Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Chris Carrano, VP of Strategic Research at Venn by Two Sigma, dives into the world of quantitative market analysis. He discusses how investors can better understand market dynamics through style factors, breaking down key events like the post-Trump Rally and December's market wobble. Carrano highlights the surprising underperformance of small-cap stocks compared to larger equities in 2024, and uncovers how momentum, especially influenced by tech companies, remains a driving force even amidst rising interest rates.

Luke Gromen, Founder and President of Forest for the Trees, dives into the turbulent world of finance. He discusses how rising U.S. interest rates are impacting the Treasury market and the strong U.S. dollar's effects on global growth. Gromen highlights the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing these dynamics and explores the risks of foreign divestment from long-term treasuries. With a deep analysis of debt servicing and the implications for fiscal health, he offers crucial insights into an evolving economic landscape.

Kyle Mowery, Portfolio Manager and Founder of Grizzly Rock Capital, shares insights from 13 years of experience in small/mid-cap value investing. He discusses the difficulties small-cap managers face in today’s market and the shifts required to adapt strategies. Mowery emphasizes clear communication with investors and the importance of evolving investment approaches post-COVID. He also explores the benefits of joining established teams instead of starting solo funds and offers tips on building trust with investors through reputable partnerships.

Steve Hou, a Senior Researcher at Bloomberg specializing in Treasury issuance and equity indices, joins to discuss the complexities of U.S. Treasury debt management. He explains how the supply effect impacts bond yields and stock correlations, and unveils findings on pricing power and R&D. The conversation delves into the evolution of U.S. debt maturity, the implications of concentrated stock indices, and future macroeconomic strategies, emphasizing the need for adaptive investment approaches as market dynamics shift.

The recent non-farm payrolls report shows a job surge that surprises markets, igniting debates on economic health amid recession worries. The impact of rising inflation expectations and the divergence in market performance between small and large-cap stocks are dissected. There’s a deep dive into the correlation between stocks, bonds, and gold amid sell-offs driven by strong economic data. Perspectives on market conviction contrast long-term optimism with short-term caution, highlighting the significance of personal financial circumstances.

Mel Mattison, an investor and monetary theorist, shares his bold predictions for the financial landscape. He discusses his shocking S&P 500 forecast of 15,000 by 2028 while expecting a severe market correction in early 2025. Mel elaborates on the concept of Bretton Woods 2.0, potential gold revaluation, and the impact of political dynamics on Social Security and inflation. Additionally, he compares Bitcoin to traditional investments, critiquing current economic policies and the looming risks of the national debt.

Eric Crittenden, CIO and Founder of Stand Point Asset Management, shares his journey of defying the ETF boom to build a $1 billion mutual fund in under five years. He discusses innovative all-weather investing strategies and the crucial role of diversification. Crittenden also contrasts mutual funds with hedge funds, emphasizing management simplicity over complexity. He sheds light on client acquisition strategies, particularly focusing on independent financial advisors, and underscores the evolving landscape of investment choices in today's market.

Jason Cave, a senior consultant at Potomac Global Partners with over 30 years of banking regulation experience, shares insights on the evolving landscape of U.S. bank regulations. He discusses the potential reopening of bank mergers and acquisitions, the pause on Basel III, and the optimistic outlook for banks under new leadership. Cave also addresses the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, emphasizing the ongoing challenges and the push for regulatory reforms that could benefit smaller banks and enhance overall stability in the financial sector.

Citrini, a renowned cross-asset thematic investor behind the Citrindex, shares his insights on lucrative trades for 2025. He dives into the dynamics of the housing market, spotlighting unique challenges for home builders amid rising interest rates. The conversation shifts to innovative themes such as airline investments, powered by macro trends. Citrini also explores opportunities in emerging technologies, especially in AI and drone sectors, while highlighting company performances that could drive future market success.

Darrell Duffie, a finance and economics professor at Stanford, dives into liquidity strains at quarter-end, exploring the complexities of SOFR/IOR spreads. He discusses how bank payment timing is a better stress predictor than spread itself. Duffie also critiques current debt-to-GDP levels and suggests the Treasury's 'stealth QE' tactics. He explains the evolving treasury strategy for short-term needs and its effects on market dynamics, alongside the implications of transitioning from LIBOR to SOFR for banks and corporate borrowing.