Monetary Matters with Jack Farley The Fed Will Choose Inflation Over Recession | Vincent Deluard
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Jun 15, 2025 
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, shares his insights on the evolving economic landscape. He argues that fears of recessions might be overstated, emphasizing a 'no recession' feedback loop. Deluard critiques Trump’s MAGA policies, predicting they'll negatively impact corporate profit margins. He also discusses the bullish outlook for oil and energy stocks, noting their potential for appreciation amid market challenges, and highlights the effects of tariffs and the shifting dynamics of global capital.
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Why Recessions Are Canceled
- Recessions have become less common due to technology, policy changes, and demographics.
- Governments now prefer inflation over recession, making recessions structurally harder to occur.
U.S. Embracing German Labor Model
- U.S. companies avoid layoffs to retain quality labor after COVID disruptions.
- The U.S. labor market is shifting towards a German-style employment model with less firing.
Tariffs Burden Corporations, Not Foreigners
- Trump’s tariffs will hurt corporations more than the overall economy.
- Tariffs increase costs that corporations eventually bear, contradicting the myth that foreigners pay.