Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Matt Ober, General Partner at Social Leverage, brings a wealth of expertise as a former Chief Data Scientist at Third Point. He dives into how AI is revolutionizing data-driven investing, with insights on the commoditization of alternative datasets. The conversation highlights niche data value, the competitive landscape with AI-native startups, and the emerging 'degenerate economy' of sports and prediction markets. He also shares Social Leverage's unique seed-stage strategies and the evolution of data pricing in the venture capital world.

Maria Vassalou, Head of the Pictet Research Institute, dives into the urgent challenges of aging demographics and the role of technology in economic growth. She explains how countries like Japan and Italy face daunting dependency ratios, which could threaten their economies. Vassalou argues that robotics and AI can substitute declining labor, boosting productivity. The conversation also highlights which sectors, like housing and healthcare, stand to gain, while cautioning against long-term stagnation if investment in tech doesn't happen now.

Jay Shambaugh, an economist and former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, shares his expertise on the shifting landscape of world trade. He highlights China's persistent trade surplus, driven by state-led investment and overcapacity. Shambaugh discusses the global implications of the 'second China shock', the need for economic restructuring in China, and the challenges of unilateral U.S. policies. He also emphasizes the importance of targeted tariffs and the impact of immigration on the labor market, providing valuable insights into the current economic climate.

Andrei Stetsenko, a partner and portfolio manager at Gymkhana Partners, shares his insights on India's economic transformation and the burgeoning aerospace and defense sectors. He discusses the impressive growth of India's small-cap landscape and why it's an underappreciated investment opportunity. Stetsenko highlights the significance of urbanization and a rising middle class driving market demand. He also examines India's shift to sovereign defense capabilities and the role of nimble private firms in modern warfare.

In this discussion, Steve Hou, a Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg Indices, delves into the structural forces driving inflation, highlighting decarbonization, demographic aging, and deglobalization. He introduces the Reformers Index, a unique strategy aimed at identifying companies transitioning from 'bad to less bad,' like Uber and Palantir. Hou explores the implications of Baumol's Disease on costs for middle-class families and challenges traditional investment approaches, emphasizing how systematic fundamental momentum can lead to impressive market outperformance.

In this engaging discussion, Andrew Beer, founder of DBI and an expert in liquid alternatives ETFs, reveals the quirks of institutional investment. He critiques how allocators prioritize career risk over returns, leading to flawed decision-making. Beer sheds light on the illusion of smooth returns in private assets that conceal volatility. He also highlights the success of multi-strategy 'pod' shops and introduces the QALT ETF, designed to provide efficient macro exposure while making alternatives accessible for advisors. Step into the wild world of hedge fund strategies and investment choices!

Yaron Naymark, founder of the concentrated hedge fund 1 Main Capital, shares his journey from launching with $1M to achieving $80M AUM. He discusses the significance of transparent communication with investors and how a strategic $20M investment from Cannell Capital accelerated growth. Yaron explains his Buffett-style investment philosophy, emphasizing concentration and risk management. He reflects on the challenges of scaling a fund and the importance of aligning incentives with institutional investors, offering valuable insights into the hedge fund world.

Jim Chanos, a renowned investor and short seller, shares his insights on the financial risks of the AI landscape. He delves into the low margins of GPU hosting and its resemblance to a commodity business. Chanos warns about the depreciation risks of AI chips and the unprofitability of many AI clients, echoing caution reminiscent of the Dotcom bubble. He also critiques Oracle's free cash flow challenges and highlights the pitfalls of private credit, making a compelling case for investors as the AI sector faces potential headwinds.

In this enlightening discussion, Luke Gromen, a macro analyst and founder of Forrest for the Trees, tackles America's tough choice between AI competition with China and preserving the US Treasury market's value. He outlines why our electrical grid is a critical bottleneck and warns of Bitcoin's signals for a tumultuous 2026. Gromen also predicts gold could skyrocket due to shifting reserve dynamics, while tariffs and capital flows could lead to inflation and bond market risks. His insights combine economic trends with geopolitical implications, painting a vivid picture of the financial landscape ahead.

Sam Gaer, CIO of Directional Strategies at Monarq Asset Management, dives into the world of quantitative crypto trading. With a rich background as a market maker and exchange technologist, he discusses how his innovative strategies have consistently outperformed Bitcoin. Gaer emphasizes the growing institutional interest in crypto, the importance of risk management, and the evolution of trading technologies. He also shares insights on the cultural differences between crypto and traditional finance, as well as the potential for capitalizing on market volatility.