Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Matt Jozoff, co-CEO and Head of Macro Research at Trevally Capital, shares insights on the booming Ginnie Mae market and its shift towards non-bank lenders. He highlights how low-credit borrowers and rising interest rates are reshaping mortgage prepayments, leading to unique investment opportunities. Jozoff emphasizes the role of strategic partnerships and analytics in navigating this complex landscape. With a focus on securing alpha and building a world-class asset management firm, he discusses the transformative potential within today's mortgage market.

Libby Cantrill, Managing Director and Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, shares her insights on the complexities of U.S. trade and tax policy. She predicts that while some tariffs may decrease, the 10% tariff will remain a baseline, especially regarding China. Cantrill discusses the challenges of trade negotiations, the risks of stagflation on the economy, and the interplay between tariffs and tax policies. She also touches on the legal implications of President Trump's use of tariff powers, emphasizing the ongoing significance of these trade dynamics.

Danny Moses, an investor and commentator famous for his role in 'The Big Short', dives deep into the looming credit cycle and the implications of tariff fatigue. He shares his insights on how tariffs could be overshadowing critical economic shifts, warning of potential overvaluation in stocks. Moses also discusses the troubling rise of non-performing loans in regional banks and the opaque nature of private credit markets. He advocates for quality asset focus, examines the appeal of gold during turbulent times, and reflects on the U.S. brand's integrity in global business.

Freya Beamish, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, discusses the shifting landscape of the international monetary system. She argues that U.S. tariff policies are pushing towards a multi-polar currency order. Freya predicts a potential reduction in U.S.-China tariffs to around 30%. The conversation dives into the dynamics between the dollar and the yuan, along with the influence of global selling on U.S. financial markets. Lastly, she highlights investment strategies amid these currency shifts and the need for effective policies to maintain dollar dominance.

Julian Brigden, Co-Founder of MI2 Partners, is a macro analyst specializing in global financial trends. In this discussion, he reveals how recent shifts in U.S. trade policy are prompting foreign investors to offload U.S. assets and repatriate profits. He further explains how this trend, combined with a slowdown in dollar flow due to tariffs, could lead to a weaker dollar and challenges for U.S. financial markets. Brigden also delves into the implications of tariffs, potential stagflation, and the broader economic effects on both the U.S. and global markets.

Måns Levin, CEO and co-founder of Ridge Capital, shares insights into the Nordic high-yield credit market, highlighting its potential for double-digit returns insulated from trade risks. He discusses the unique features and inefficiencies that investors can capitalize on, and the strategies needed for navigating this volatile landscape. Levin also delves into Finland's geopolitical challenges and how they impact regional investment dynamics. The conversation emphasizes the importance of disciplined decision-making and investor engagement in maximizing returns.

Lyn Alden, an investment strategist at Lyn Alden Investment Strategy and author of 'Broken Money', dives deep into America's trade challenges. She connects trade deficits to the U.S. dollar's role as a global reserve currency and warns of significant market turbulence ahead. The discussion touches on the economic implications of tariffs, the intricate U.S.-China trade dynamics, and how currency values affect competitiveness. Alden also explores strategies to navigate market volatility and emphasizes the importance of risk management in uncertain times.

Wayne Himelsein, CIO and founder of Logica Capital Advisors, dives into the fascinating world of long volatility strategies. He explains how his hedge fund thrives during volatility spikes, offering innovative solutions to traditional hedging problems. The discussion covers the evolution of long volatility strategies and the importance of early success in financial ventures. Himelsein also emphasizes proactive risk management and liquidity strategies essential for navigating turbulent markets, highlighting Logica's plans for blending new insights into their future fund launches.

Charles Gasparino, Fox Business Senior Correspondent, dives deep into the intricate world of trade negotiations under Trump. He discusses the clashing factions within the White House, revealing how protectionists and moderates influence policy. Gasparino predicts that Trump is likely to strike deals with major trading powers, despite challenges. The conversation touches on market volatility linked to political maneuvers and the Republican Party's shift towards populism as it seeks to appeal to blue-collar workers. Expect a mix of insight and lively debate!

Tian Yang, CEO and head of research at Variant Perception, dives into pressing economic issues like tariffs and their impact on the U.S.-China trade relationship. He discusses the Trump administration's strategies to cut the trade deficit and their implications for the dollar and inflation. Yang also highlights tactics for navigating market volatility and explains the Log Periodic Power Law to identify market bubbles. Finally, he emphasizes the evolving economic landscape and urges adaptive investment strategies to thrive amid uncertainty.