Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

David Stemerman, CEO and CIO of CenterBook Partners, dives into the world of alpha capture strategies aimed at revitalizing long-short equity investing. He discusses the importance of systematic portfolio construction and how it can unlock hidden returns for bottom-up stock pickers. Stemerman also addresses the skepticism around alpha capture, offering insights into how to engage fund managers without compromising their performance. With a bold vision for the future, he shares plans for integrating human skill with advanced data techniques to enhance investment outcomes.

Satish Mansukhani, managing director at Rithm Capital, shares his extensive expertise in mortgage servicing and asset-based finance. He explains the dynamics of real estate investing, emphasizing how direct control over assets can mitigate risks. The discussion dives into mortgage delinquencies post-pandemic, Rithm's strategy for acquiring commercial real estate, and the role of private credit in today's market. Satish also highlights the affordability issues in the housing market and the impact of supply constraints on recovery.

Erik YWR, a global investor and author of the Your Weekend Reading Substack, argues for a bullish outlook on the stock market, claiming the S&P could reach 10,000 by 2027. He points to strong fiscal spending, impressive corporate earnings, and a revitalized banking sector as key factors. Erik explores the technological wave in AI and chips, emerging market dynamics, and potential dollar weakness boosting global growth. He also warns that rising energy prices could pose a risk, yet remains optimistic about continued consumer strength driving expansion.

Corey Hoffstein, CEO and CIO of Newfound Research and co-founder of Return Stacked ETFs, delves into the evolving landscape of investment management. He argues that merely beating the market is not enough—managers must address client needs more holistically. Corey shares insights on the importance of distribution, the role of educational materials, and how quantitative research can enhance brand visibility. He also emphasizes adapting strategies to changing market conditions and the value of understanding client utility in product design.

Michael Howell, Head of GL Indexes and author of Capital Wars, dives into the murky waters of Fed liquidity and balance sheet dynamics. He discusses the surprising end of Quantitative Tightening and argues that a new era of 'not-QE' is upon us, highlighting the inevitability of Fed balance sheet expansion. Howell reveals how Treasury-bill purchases could ease conditions yet warns of inflation risks. He also explores the ramifications of repo market spikes, the debt-liquidity nexus, and why adequate reserves remain a looming issue.

Stephen Miran, a member of the Federal Reserve Board, advocates for more aggressive rate cuts, arguing that the current policy is too restrictive. He highlights the weakening labor market and changing demographic trends that are pushing down the neutral interest rate. Miran also discusses how imputed prices may inflate CPI readings and the impact of tariffs on national saving. He emphasizes the limited upside risk of inflation and the need for the Fed to reach neutrality quickly, all while maintaining the importance of central bank independence.

Anatoly Crachilov, CEO and co-founder of Nickel Digital Asset Management, shares insights on the innovative multi-manager model for crypto hedge funds. He discusses their unique approach—partnering with external traders without restrictive non-competes. Crachilov explains how technology aids in managing risk and execution across an expanding number of pods. The conversation also highlights the challenges of 2025 for crypto traders and the importance of adaptability in volatile markets.

Explore the intriguing world of credit fraud and its ties to major asset-backed loans. Delve into the impressive earnings reports from the tech giants, known as the Mag 7, highlighting their massive investment in AI CapEx. Debate the potential bubble surrounding AI spending versus its long-term trends. Listen in on Fed insights discussing balance sheet expansions amid market stresses and the implications for rate changes. The dynamics of capital intensity in tech business models spark compelling discussions about future valuations.

Joseph Wang, a former senior trader at the New York Fed and author at FedGuy.com, dives into the Fed's recent decision to halt quantitative tightening. He discusses the stress in the repo market and predicts the need for the Fed to expand its balance sheet to maintain liquidity. Topics include the implications of rising repo demand due to fiscal deficits, potential impacts on mortgage rates from MBS sales, and the balance sheet's role in controlling interest rates. Wang also examines stock market momentum driven by AI and the complexities of Fed independence.

Michael Howell, founder of Global Liquidity Indexes and author of Capital Wars, shares critical insights on global liquidity trends. He highlights a concerning decline in U.S. Federal Reserve liquidity due to intense repo market pressures while China pumps over 7 trillion Yuan into its economy, drastically impacting gold prices. Howell warns of a growing East-West financial divide and predicts that 2026 may not be kind to financial assets. He also discusses debt-likelihood ratios and advises core allocations to inflation hedges, including Bitcoin.