Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, and Jonny Matthews, a veteran macro trader at SuperMacro, dive into global economic dynamics. They discuss the forces that are weakening sovereign bonds and the implications of fiscal policies on the U.S. dollar. The guests analyze how tariffs impact business investments and bond markets, along with the risks tied to foreign investments. They also touch on productivity growth, inflation trends in Europe, and shifts towards non-U.S. assets amidst rising insurance costs, offering insights for navigating a turbulent financial landscape.

Val Zlatev, a Portfolio Manager and Senior Partner at Analog Century Capital Management, dives into the often-overlooked potential of AI and semiconductors. He argues that investors are underappreciating the impact of AI on the market and the end of Moore's Law for semiconductors. Val clarifies the misconceptions surrounding DeepSeek technology and discusses the crucial role of U.S. and Chinese government policies on the industry. He also highlights the cyclical nature of the analog semiconductor market and the importance of strategic portfolio management.

Gerard Minack, an independent macro analyst at Minack Advisors, dives into the complexities of US debt versus other nations, highlighting why America's situation is particularly precarious. He warns that rising debt levels are on an unsustainable path and that bond vigilantes will likely intervene soon. The discussion also contrasts valuations of US assets with those globally, predicting a convergence, while intriguing insights on Japan's economic resilience and the implications of AI on the market provide a multi-faceted view of current financial landscapes.

Marco Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, delves into the decline of 'American Exceptionalism' and how fiscal hawkishness is essential for the country's future market performance. He challenges the idea of a dual polar world dominated by the U.S. and China, advocating for a multipolar reality instead. Discussions also touch on tariffs' role in domestic economic improvements, the implications of U.S. fiscal policies on asset performance, and the evolving nature of global geopolitics, especially regarding China and the Middle East.

Bob Robotti, President and CIO of Robotti and Company Advisors, has over 30 years of value investing experience. In this engaging conversation, he discusses the merits of long-term capital and investing in companies facing headwinds. He highlights the unique competitive advantages of American industrial firms, unaffected by trade policies. Bob also shares insights on evaluating business value through cost of replacement metrics and the strategic importance of navigating challenges in markets like lumber. His dual role in advisory and brokerage showcases a unique perspective on value investing.

Steve Hanke, a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University and author of "Making Money Work," discusses critical economic issues. He analyzes the stagnation of the money supply and its impact on inflation stability. Hanke foresees a potential recession in 2025, driven by sluggish investments and unpredictable tariffs. He challenges traditional views on trade deficits, suggesting they can stimulate economic growth. The conversation also touches on fiscal deficits and their implications for the U.S. dollar and global markets.

Jason Furman, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Obama and a Harvard professor, dives into the Trump administration's economic strategy. He critiques the effects of tariffs on the economy, highlighting the risk of trade wars and misconceptions about their impact. Furman unpacks the implications of tax cuts, noting they disproportionately benefit the wealthy. He also addresses the national debt's rapid increase and evaluates the mixed results of fiscal policies on growth. Healthcare economics and trade deficits are examined for their broader economic significance.

Nicolás Dujovne, former Treasury Minister of Argentina and founder of Tenac Asset Management, dives deep into the intricacies of emerging market economies. He discusses the parallels between U.S. fiscal issues and those faced by emerging markets, while clarifying why the U.S. doesn't fully resemble an emerging market. Dujovne highlights the risks and rewards of investing in EM debt, and shares his thoughts on the weakening dollar. He also points to promising opportunities for investors navigating this complex landscape, making a compelling case for including EM debt in portfolios.

Aahan Menon, founder and CEO of Prometheus Macro, shares his insights into macroeconomic strategies and the nuances of investing. He discusses how tariffs minimally impact the economy while stressing the importance of domestic consumption. Aahan also outlines key investment strategies based on systematic analysis, emphasizing beta timing and momentum for optimal returns. The conversation touches on the complexities of predicting economic indicators and the necessity of adapting investment philosophies across different age groups for better alignment with financial goals.

Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Anderson Institute for Finance & Economics and former senior official at the IMF and U.S. Treasury, discusses critical insights on private credit's rise and associated risks to global financial stability. He highlights how economic slowdowns and tariffs impact this sector, questioning the balance between private credit and traditional banking. Additionally, he dives into regulatory challenges, liquidity concerns, and the complexities of the U.S.-China trade dynamics, reflecting on the broader implications for investors and market health.