Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Joseph Wang, a former senior trader at the New York Fed and author at FedGuy.com, dives into the Fed's recent decision to halt quantitative tightening. He discusses the stress in the repo market and predicts the need for the Fed to expand its balance sheet to maintain liquidity. Topics include the implications of rising repo demand due to fiscal deficits, potential impacts on mortgage rates from MBS sales, and the balance sheet's role in controlling interest rates. Wang also examines stock market momentum driven by AI and the complexities of Fed independence.

Michael Howell, founder of Global Liquidity Indexes and author of Capital Wars, shares critical insights on global liquidity trends. He highlights a concerning decline in U.S. Federal Reserve liquidity due to intense repo market pressures while China pumps over 7 trillion Yuan into its economy, drastically impacting gold prices. Howell warns of a growing East-West financial divide and predicts that 2026 may not be kind to financial assets. He also discusses debt-likelihood ratios and advises core allocations to inflation hedges, including Bitcoin.

Derek Pilecki, manager of Gator Capital, has been beating the S&P 500 with over 22% annual compounding since 2008. In this chat, he argues that fears around the financial sector are overblown, presenting recent sell-offs as buying chances. Derek discusses the balance of macro views and stock selection, the role of thought leadership in attracting investors, and shares insights on running both hedge and mutual funds. He also reflects on his transition from Goldman to launching Gator Capital and the importance of disciplined fundraising.

George Saravelos, Global Head of FX Research at Deutsche Bank, shares insights into the currency market, focusing on the recent dollar weakness linked to narrowing growth differentials between the U.S. and other economies. He discusses how emerging markets influence FX dynamics and the impact of Fed rate cuts on dollar strength. Saravelos also examines the correlation between the dollar and equities, the factors driving flows in currency markets, and highlights opportunities in emerging market currencies. A deep dive into the complex world of foreign exchange!

Jon Turek, founder of JST Advisors and macro research expert, discusses the shifting dynamics of the dollar in this engaging conversation. He explains why declining U.S. interest rates will make dollar hedging more appealing for foreign investors and how this could impact the global market. Turek also dives into China's trade surplus, the ongoing gold bull market, and the implications of U.S. fiscal policy on global yield curves. With insights on foreign flows and the Fed’s potential rate cuts, Turek paints a vivid picture of the dollar's future.

Jack and Max dive into the impact of credit issues in California's commercial real estate market. They dissect strong earnings from major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America while pondering whether recent financial mishaps indicate broader credit stress. The duo also explores reputational risks in finance, private credit's ties to banks, and shifting market sentiment. Plus, Jack shares his optimism about precious metals like gold, highlighting investment strategies amidst volatility. Don’t miss their insights on future economic trends!

In this engaging discussion, David Orr, a long/short equity manager and head of the Militia Long/Short Equity ETF, shares insights into his unique decision to launch an ETF while successfully running a hedge fund. He tackles challenges like liquidity management, compliance differences between hedge funds and ETFs, and investor adoption hurdles. David also emphasizes the advantages of tax efficiency and scalability with ETFs, while revealing plans for expansion and the importance of transparency in building investor trust. A must-listen for finance aficionados!

In a lively discussion, Brad Setser, a veteran balance-of-payments expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, examines China’s export surge and its global repercussions. He reveals how China's shifting trade dynamics are pressuring the U.S. and Europe while altering corporate investment strategies. Setser explores the recycling of trade surpluses, the underscored risks of tariffs, and how China’s undervalued yuan connects to its export boom. He also critiques the administration's foreign investment approach, making it a compelling listen for those interested in international economics.

In a gripping discussion, the hosts dissect the fallout from First Brands' staggering $11 billion bankruptcy and its impact on the credit markets. They analyze the risks inherent in the company's auto-focused model and explore which financial firms are left exposed. The conversation turns to Trump's looming 100% tariffs on China, triggering market turbulence. They also debate the implications of AI capital expenditures and how government stakes might influence resource stocks. This insightful episode emphasizes watching credit and preparing for potential volatility.

In this engaging discussion, Richard J Murphy, a political economist and tax reform advocate, shares his insights on taxation and economic repair. He argues that effective tax reform can boost productivity and welfare. Murphy critiques current corporate taxation and suggests focusing on higher income taxes for the wealthy rather than broad wealth taxes. He explains how reducing inequality can stimulate economic demand and proposes aligning tax rates on income and capital gains to eliminate perverse incentives. Don’t miss Murphy’s views on government debt and monetary policy!