Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Barry Naughton, a leading expert on the Chinese economy from UC San Diego, explores the dynamics of China’s current economic struggles, including a severe housing bust and persistent deflation. He discusses the transition from market liberalization to state-driven industrial policy and its implications for global AI competition. Naughton also highlights the effects of demographic changes on growth and suggests policy reforms needed to stimulate household consumption. A must-listen for insights on China's economic future and geopolitical tensions with the U.S.

Max Wiethe, a market commentator known for his trading insights, joins Jack to dive into President Trump's proposed 10% interest cap on credit cards, examining its genuine impact versus political theater. They explore potential bank strategies like teaser cards and the surprising bipartisan origins of the cap idea. The discussion broadens to include mortgage policies and housing market effects, alongside the risks banks face from rising subprime lenders and pawn shops if credit tightening occurs. Max also highlights implications for investment opportunities amidst market shifts.

Steven Novakovic, Managing Director of Educational Programs at CAIA, dives into the transformative shift to the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) that major players like CalPERS are adopting. He discusses the implications of this governance change for institutional allocators and how it enables tactical moves in an uncertain market landscape. Novakovic stresses the growing importance of education on private market risks and the rise of secondary markets, while also critiquing hedge fund fee structures, urging investors to rethink what they pay for beta.

Dr. Michael Power, a macro strategist and consultant, explores how China's open-source AI strategy may outpace the U.S. He highlights the fundamental differences in approaches: China's utility-based model versus the U.S.’s monetized systems. Power discusses the implications for global AI adoption, the evolving landscape of chip suppliers, and the potential fading of NVIDIA’s dominance. He emphasizes the advantages of Chinese architectures, economic risks in U.S. tech investments, and identifies key players like Alibaba and Tencent as future winners.

Michael Kao, Chief Investment Officer of Cantos Capital Management, delves into America's energy vulnerabilities. He argues Venezuela's oil reserves won't solve U.S. energy issues anytime soon, citing OPEC's constraints and a bearish outlook on oil. Kao highlights the looming threat of natural gas, driven by the rise of AI data centers and premature electrification, which stress the power grid. He suggests that investing in natural gas mineral rights may be a wiser long-term strategy compared to volatile commodities and equities.

Explore the surprising outperformance of global stocks versus the U.S., with standout performances from South Korea and China. Delve into the dynamics of foreign capital flows and sector winners like tech and industrials. Hear insights on the speculative market, AI's impressive growth, and the concerning labor market divergence. The discussion also touches on potential risks for 2026, including AI valuations and geopolitical considerations, all while highlighting the evolving landscape of the global bull market.

In a thought-provoking discussion, Harley Bassman, the Convexity Maven and Managing Partner at Simplify Asset Management, sheds light on critical market dynamics. He argues that inflation will remain high due to demographic shifts and persistent fiscal deficits. Exploring the bond market, he highlights why newly issued mortgage-backed securities are appealing. Bassman offers practical portfolio hedges and emphasizes the significance of convexity in investing. He also advocates for gold as a unique hedge against fiat currency debasement, recommending a strategic allocation.

An investor shares his thematic watchlist for 2026, focusing on the evolution of AI in bureaucracy to streamline operations and boost profit margins. Key topics include advanced packaging as a bottleneck in custom silicon and the critical commodity landscape, particularly for copper and natural gas. The discussion also covers capital discipline in cyclical sectors post-pandemic, offering insights into robotics applications and short-term trading opportunities around the World Cup. Deep dives into specific companies and market strategies provide a wealth of insightful analysis.

Matt Ober, General Partner at Social Leverage, brings a wealth of expertise as a former Chief Data Scientist at Third Point. He dives into how AI is revolutionizing data-driven investing, with insights on the commoditization of alternative datasets. The conversation highlights niche data value, the competitive landscape with AI-native startups, and the emerging 'degenerate economy' of sports and prediction markets. He also shares Social Leverage's unique seed-stage strategies and the evolution of data pricing in the venture capital world.

Maria Vassalou, Head of the Pictet Research Institute, dives into the urgent challenges of aging demographics and the role of technology in economic growth. She explains how countries like Japan and Italy face daunting dependency ratios, which could threaten their economies. Vassalou argues that robotics and AI can substitute declining labor, boosting productivity. The conversation also highlights which sectors, like housing and healthcare, stand to gain, while cautioning against long-term stagnation if investment in tech doesn't happen now.