Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Anderson Institute for Finance & Economics and former senior official at the IMF and U.S. Treasury, discusses critical insights on private credit's rise and associated risks to global financial stability. He highlights how economic slowdowns and tariffs impact this sector, questioning the balance between private credit and traditional banking. Additionally, he dives into regulatory challenges, liquidity concerns, and the complexities of the U.S.-China trade dynamics, reflecting on the broader implications for investors and market health.

David Kotok, Co-Founder & Strategic Advisor at Cumberland Advisors, dives into the economic twists brought about by pandemics, particularly through insights from his book, "The Fed and the Flu." He discusses how historical pandemics have consistently lowered natural interest rates and exacerbated inequality. Kotok also critiques the U.S. response to COVID-19, emphasizing the need for better preparedness. With a focus on historical data over centuries, he illustrates the interconnectedness of health crises and economic shifts.

Milton Berg, a pioneer in technical market analysis, discusses his bullish outlook for the stock market, emphasizing that early April marked a significant turning point. He analyzes rare market signals, including the TRIN indicator, and historical patterns that suggest a strong potential for a bull market. Despite current bearish sentiments, he points to positive trends and patterns in major indices like the NASDAQ and S&P 500. Berg also critiques the value of gold, advocating for a focus on stocks instead, while exploring international markets and their implications.

Ken Rogoff, a renowned economist and Harvard professor, dives deep into the U.S. Dollar's journey to global dominance in his insightful chat. He critiques past tariff policies, suggesting Trump may be seen differently in a decade. Rogoff discusses the trade deficits and the U.S.-China relationship, highlighting the complexities behind the dollar's reserve status. He also examines potential future shifts in economic power and currency dynamics, raising thought-provoking questions about the global financial landscape.

Economist George Magnus, an Associate at the China Centre Oxford, uncovers the inevitability of a global trade reset driven by unsustainable imbalances. He highlights the complex dynamics between the U.S. and China, discussing tariffs, currency manipulation, and the implications of a weakening yuan. Magnus also examines China’s gold stockpiling strategy and its impact on trade relations. Listeners gain insights into how rising tariffs are reshaping global trade relationships and the pressing need for diplomatic solutions amidst escalating tensions.

Max Wiethe, host of Other People’s Money, joins the discussion to unravel key economic trends. They tackle the May Fed meeting and its cautious stance amid tariff uncertainties impacting inflation. The duo delves into shipping volumes and the implications of China’s recent monetary stimulus. With insights on consumer spending trends and the nuances of data analysis, they paint a complex picture of the current economic landscape, emphasizing the interconnectedness of global trade and market shifts.

Last Bear Standing, a financial analyst known for his bearish market outlook, dives into the high stakes of current economic trends. He warns that the recent market decline signals a prolonged bear market, not a simple correction. The discussion highlights how trade wars shape market dynamics and the impacts on various sectors, especially retail and logistics. With a focus on consumer spending adjustments due to tariffs, he emphasizes the importance of strategy adaptation amidst economic uncertainties.

Kara Murphy, CIO of Kestra Investment Management, shares her insights on long-term investment strategies during turbulent market times. She emphasizes that short-term market fluctuations shouldn't deter long-term investors. The dialogue includes a deep dive into the resilience of the S&P 500 and the performance of 'MAG-7' stocks amidst trade policy changes. Additionally, Murphy explores the impact of tariffs on the tech sector, the importance of diversification, and the emerging landscape of private credit as a profitable opportunity.

The first 4 months of 2025 have been highly volatile hurting both equity and fixed income investors alike, but how has the “smart money” faired in this environment? Jack and Max breakdown the performance of hedge funds in Q1 and April of 2025 with data from Citco Fund Services and HFRI. They also discuss the recent moves by Yale and Harvard to sell some of their private equity stakes and other indicators that might signal trouble ahead for PE as an asset class. Follow Jack on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M  Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi  YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe Learn more about Teucrium’s Model Commodity Portfolio: https://insights.teucrium.com/commodities1subscribe Golden Grain Cycle: https://insights.teucrium.com/golden-grain-cycle This Fireside Chat is a sponsored conversation with the CEO of Teucrium, Sal Gilbertie. Sal’s company offers access to agricultural commodities such as corn ($CORN), soybeans ($SOYB), wheat ($WEAT), sugar, as well as broad commodity indices ($TAGS & $TILL) and 2x levered Ripple ($XXRP).  Follow Teucrium on Twitter https://x.com/TeucriumETFs Follow Sal Gilbertie on Twitter https://x.com/GilbertieSal Follow Jake Hanley on Twitter https://x.com/MacroView_Jake Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez