Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at StoneX, shares his insights on the perilous economic landscape leading up to 2025. He discusses how a lower 2024 inflation rate will squeeze government benefits like Social Security through COLA adjustments. Deluard warns of a strong U.S. dollar impacting corporate earnings and predicts potential spending cuts at state and local levels. He also provides a keen analysis of the political turmoil in France and its broader macroeconomic implications.

Felix Zulauf, a renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf Consulting, shares his insights on market trends and economic forecasts. He predicts a significant correction in the S&P 500 by early 2025, sparking concerns over the Yen carry trade and its potential impact on liquidity. Zulauf discusses the precarious balance in bond yields amidst a secular bear market, alongside the outlook for commodities like oil and gold. He emphasizes the complex interplay of tariffs, economic disparities, and the unpredictable ride that 2025 may bring for investors.

Jamie Carter, Partner and Managing Director at Variis Partners, shares his extensive experience in emerging markets investment. He discusses the stark distinctions between long-only businesses and hedge funds. Carter highlights challenges in raising capital across the US, UK, and Europe, and why emerging markets are crucial for active management. He also addresses the impact of political policies on global markets and the importance of local knowledge in navigating these complex investment landscapes.

Recent job reports reveal a more nuanced labor market, particularly in retail, challenging negative interpretations. Positive growth in sectors like healthcare contrasts with bleak headlines. The discussion explores the independence of central banks amidst political pressures and the complex relationship between monetary policy and economic indicators. Stock market dynamics show significant growth, fueled by contrasting views. Political changes are set to impact inflation and job markets, while the podcast's format evolves to foster engaging finance conversations.

Juliette Declercq, the founder of JDI Research, is a macroeconomic whiz who shares her insights on the shifting landscape of the U.S. economy. She argues that recession looms larger than inflation for the coming years. Declercq emphasizes the role of debt and immigration in economic growth, and expresses optimism about the dollar's strength and bond market trends. The discussion also touches on the impact of tariffs and the challenges faced by labor dynamics and productivity, providing a compelling view of market predictions and investment strategies for the future.

In this discussion, Chris Brown, CIO and founder of Aristides Capital, shares his remarkable journey from Air Force doctor to hedge fund success, boasting a 16-year record of no losing years. He highlights how meticulous strategies, hiring passionate talent, and rigorous performance analysis have driven their 1,000% returns. Brown emphasizes the importance of relationships with high-net-worth and institutional investors, while stressing the need for transparency and authenticity in the investment process—all delivered with an engaging sense of humor.

Andy Constan, a veteran macro trader and publisher of the Damped Spring Report, dives into the current state of financial markets. He highlights the struggles small businesses face with rising interest rates and examines the Fed's confusing rate dynamics. Constan shares insights on MicroStrategy's complex Bitcoin investments and levered ETFs, warning of associated risks. He emphasizes the need for a hawkish Federal Reserve approach to stabilize an increasingly abnormal financial landscape, framing the discussion around evolving economic conditions.

Joseph Wang, a former senior trader at the New York Fed and author of "Central Banking 101," teams up with George Goncalves, Head of US Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities. They delve into the Federal Reserve's strategy for 2025, examining the impact of rising interest rates and political shifts. The duo discusses the challenges of small businesses amidst high rates, the implications of trade tariffs, and potential rate cuts. They explore how these factors could influence market sentiment, the economy, and future Federal Reserve policies.

Farid Guindo, CIO and founder of Drill Capital Management, discusses the challenges and dynamics of launching hedge funds, particularly through spinouts. He shares insights on how mentorship shaped his journey, emphasizing transparency and relationship-building. Guindo explains the strategy behind Drill Capital's focus on clean energy investments and the significance of operational support in fund launches. His experiences with Tiger Cubs highlight the importance of adapting hedge fund strategies and cultivating a diverse investor base for long-term success.

Dr. Elham Saeidinezhad, a Term Assistant Professor of Economics at Barnard College and Market Structure Fellow at the Jain Family Institute, dives into the intriguing dynamics of banks functioning as synthetic hedge funds. She discusses the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, highlighting the role of interest rate swaps in its collapse. Elham also explores the complexities of private credit ETFs and the evolving relationship between banks and non-banking entities. Her insights shed light on the regulatory challenges and risks facing today’s financial markets.