Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Max Wiethe, host of Other People’s Money, joins the discussion to unravel key economic trends. They tackle the May Fed meeting and its cautious stance amid tariff uncertainties impacting inflation. The duo delves into shipping volumes and the implications of China’s recent monetary stimulus. With insights on consumer spending trends and the nuances of data analysis, they paint a complex picture of the current economic landscape, emphasizing the interconnectedness of global trade and market shifts.

Last Bear Standing, a financial analyst known for his bearish market outlook, dives into the high stakes of current economic trends. He warns that the recent market decline signals a prolonged bear market, not a simple correction. The discussion highlights how trade wars shape market dynamics and the impacts on various sectors, especially retail and logistics. With a focus on consumer spending adjustments due to tariffs, he emphasizes the importance of strategy adaptation amidst economic uncertainties.

Kara Murphy, CIO of Kestra Investment Management, shares her insights on long-term investment strategies during turbulent market times. She emphasizes that short-term market fluctuations shouldn't deter long-term investors. The dialogue includes a deep dive into the resilience of the S&P 500 and the performance of 'MAG-7' stocks amidst trade policy changes. Additionally, Murphy explores the impact of tariffs on the tech sector, the importance of diversification, and the emerging landscape of private credit as a profitable opportunity.

The first 4 months of 2025 have been highly volatile hurting both equity and fixed income investors alike, but how has the “smart money” faired in this environment? Jack and Max breakdown the performance of hedge funds in Q1 and April of 2025 with data from Citco Fund Services and HFRI. They also discuss the recent moves by Yale and Harvard to sell some of their private equity stakes and other indicators that might signal trouble ahead for PE as an asset class. Follow Jack on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M  Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi  YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod

Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe Learn more about Teucrium’s Model Commodity Portfolio: https://insights.teucrium.com/commodities1subscribe Golden Grain Cycle: https://insights.teucrium.com/golden-grain-cycle This Fireside Chat is a sponsored conversation with the CEO of Teucrium, Sal Gilbertie. Sal’s company offers access to agricultural commodities such as corn ($CORN), soybeans ($SOYB), wheat ($WEAT), sugar, as well as broad commodity indices ($TAGS & $TILL) and 2x levered Ripple ($XXRP).  Follow Teucrium on Twitter https://x.com/TeucriumETFs Follow Sal Gilbertie on Twitter https://x.com/GilbertieSal Follow Jake Hanley on Twitter https://x.com/MacroView_Jake Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Marc Rubinstein, former hedge fund manager and author of Net Interest joins Monetary Matters to discuss how the financial sector is preparing itself for the risks of a recession and how they are managing tariff uncertainty during this earnings season. Rubinstein touches on the different subsectors of the financial sector, like banks, non-banks, asset managers and payments companies, as well as how financials in different geographies may benefit from the reshuffling of global trade. Read Marc’s Net Interest Substack on The Great Payments Processor Reshuffle of 2025: https://www.netinterest.co/p/partner-swap Follow Marc Rubinstein on Twitter https://x.com/MarcRuby Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

Matt Jozoff, co-CEO and Head of Macro Research at Trevally Capital, shares insights on the booming Ginnie Mae market and its shift towards non-bank lenders. He highlights how low-credit borrowers and rising interest rates are reshaping mortgage prepayments, leading to unique investment opportunities. Jozoff emphasizes the role of strategic partnerships and analytics in navigating this complex landscape. With a focus on securing alpha and building a world-class asset management firm, he discusses the transformative potential within today's mortgage market.

Libby Cantrill, Managing Director and Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, shares her insights on the complexities of U.S. trade and tax policy. She predicts that while some tariffs may decrease, the 10% tariff will remain a baseline, especially regarding China. Cantrill discusses the challenges of trade negotiations, the risks of stagflation on the economy, and the interplay between tariffs and tax policies. She also touches on the legal implications of President Trump's use of tariff powers, emphasizing the ongoing significance of these trade dynamics.

Danny Moses, an investor and commentator famous for his role in 'The Big Short', dives deep into the looming credit cycle and the implications of tariff fatigue. He shares his insights on how tariffs could be overshadowing critical economic shifts, warning of potential overvaluation in stocks. Moses also discusses the troubling rise of non-performing loans in regional banks and the opaque nature of private credit markets. He advocates for quality asset focus, examines the appeal of gold during turbulent times, and reflects on the U.S. brand's integrity in global business.

Freya Beamish, Chief Economist at TS Lombard, discusses the shifting landscape of the international monetary system. She argues that U.S. tariff policies are pushing towards a multi-polar currency order. Freya predicts a potential reduction in U.S.-China tariffs to around 30%. The conversation dives into the dynamics between the dollar and the yuan, along with the influence of global selling on U.S. financial markets. Lastly, she highlights investment strategies amid these currency shifts and the need for effective policies to maintain dollar dominance.