Monetary Matters with Jack Farley The Double Dip Recession | Danielle DiMartino Booth’s Take on Job Market, Credit, Tariffs, and Fed
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Jul 6, 2025 
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, delves into the chances of a double dip recession resembling the 1980-1981 economic crisis. She analyzes the precarious labor market and rising layoffs, suggesting early signs of recession. The conversation touches on the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy and the implications of tariffs on corporate strategies. Booth also discusses trends in bankruptcy across financial sectors and current market sentiments surrounding the dollar, AI investments, and gold.
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Double Dip Recession Pattern
- The U.S. economy entered a double dip recession pattern in 2024, similar to 1980-1981, with recessions in Q1 and Q1 2025 and brief recovery in Q4 2024.
- Net job losses began in Q2 2024, signaling that the recession started earlier than official data showed.
GDP Revisions Remove Import Boost
- Significant revisions in Q1 2025 GDP removed the earlier positive boost from import front-loading before tariffs.
- The clean GDP math now shows deeper negative consumption and exports, dragging growth below initial forecasts.
Fed Officials Signal July Rate Cut
- Fed Governors and presidents are increasingly signaling a probable rate cut as early as July 2025.
- This is unusual, indicating rising concern over slower labor markets and growth despite uncertainty around tariffs.