Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
Preparing For A Real Credit Cycle | Danny Moses on Tariff Fatigue, Private Credit, Gold, Tarnishing of U.S. Brand, and Why Stocks Still Aren’t Cheap
Apr 22, 2025
Danny Moses, an investor and commentator famous for his role in 'The Big Short', dives deep into the looming credit cycle and the implications of tariff fatigue. He shares his insights on how tariffs could be overshadowing critical economic shifts, warning of potential overvaluation in stocks. Moses also discusses the troubling rise of non-performing loans in regional banks and the opaque nature of private credit markets. He advocates for quality asset focus, examines the appeal of gold during turbulent times, and reflects on the U.S. brand's integrity in global business.
01:11:27
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Quick takeaways
- The focus on tariffs is overshadowing other critical market factors, complicating business operations and affecting U.S. credibility as a trade partner.
- Uncertainty stemming from tariffs is expected to lower corporate earnings forecasts, leading to a bearish outlook on S&P earnings and cautious decision-making.
Deep dives
The Impact of Tariffs on Market Dynamics
Tariffs have become a central topic in the market, overshadowing other significant economic factors. Many believe that the emphasis on tariffs is contributing to a lack of focus on other critical issues that have been impacting the market even before these tariffs were introduced. The uncertainty brought about by tariffs complicates business operations, as companies are forced to adjust their production and contracting strategies. This additional layer of unpredictability is likely to have long-term effects on the credibility of the U.S. as a reliable business partner.
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