Monetary Matters with Jack Farley Preparing For A Real Credit Cycle | Danny Moses on Tariff Fatigue, Private Credit, Gold, Tarnishing of U.S. Brand, and Why Stocks Still Aren’t Cheap
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Apr 22, 2025 Danny Moses, an investor and commentator famous for his role in 'The Big Short', dives deep into the looming credit cycle and the implications of tariff fatigue. He shares his insights on how tariffs could be overshadowing critical economic shifts, warning of potential overvaluation in stocks. Moses also discusses the troubling rise of non-performing loans in regional banks and the opaque nature of private credit markets. He advocates for quality asset focus, examines the appeal of gold during turbulent times, and reflects on the U.S. brand's integrity in global business.
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Tariffs Mask Deeper Economic Issues
- Tariffs have masked existing economic issues like government contract cuts, causing double hits to affected companies.
- The lasting damage is to U.S. credibility as a reliable business partner due to tariff uncertainty.
Tariffs Affect Earnings And Valuations
- Tariffs impact corporate earnings by increasing costs and creating uncertainty that slows business activity.
- The high stock market multiple assumes growth and Fed rate cuts, which are now uncertain, making stocks overvalued.
Invest In Quality Stocks
- Own quality stocks with strong cash balances and low debt to withstand market volatility.
- Avoid speculative or low-quality stocks, and buy quality stocks on dips for long-term safety.