Monetary Matters with Jack Farley Hidden Mortgage Market Shifts Are Creating Opportunities | Matt Jozoff of Trevally Capital
Apr 24, 2025
Matt Jozoff, co-CEO and Head of Macro Research at Trevally Capital, shares insights on the booming Ginnie Mae market and its shift towards non-bank lenders. He highlights how low-credit borrowers and rising interest rates are reshaping mortgage prepayments, leading to unique investment opportunities. Jozoff emphasizes the role of strategic partnerships and analytics in navigating this complex landscape. With a focus on securing alpha and building a world-class asset management firm, he discusses the transformative potential within today's mortgage market.
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Ginnie Mae Market Growth and Shift
- The Ginnie Mae mortgage market has grown from $500 billion in 2009 to $2.5 trillion.
- Non-banks now conduct 80% of lending in that space, reflecting a significant market shift.
Mortgage Market Stability
- Mortgage-backed securities performed relatively well despite overall market volatility.
- They remain a relatively safe asset with government guarantees and offer relative value in fixed income.
Fixed Income Post-COVID Landscape
- Fixed income offers attractive real rates compared to equities post-COVID.
- The mortgage market landscape has changed drastically as refinancing is now largely uneconomical.