Sounds Strategic

Nigel Inkster, IISS Senior Adviser, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.With the rivalry between the US and China set to become the defining feature of international politics in the 21st century, Nigel Inkster gives context to the geopolitical competition that lies at its heart. Nigel emphasises the important role technology will play in allowing great powers to project their power internationally in the future. He argues that this brings new significance to the Huawei affair and wider US–China trade disputes. Fundamentally, China views the post-World War international order as no longer fit for purpose. It is therefore looking to foster an alternative world order that is more in line with its own political objectives and priorities. Nigel and Kori discuss what the possible features of this Sino-centric world order would be and the profound importance technological innovation around 5G will play in determining who will lead the world in the next century.Recommended Reading: Richard McGregor, The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers, (London: Penguin Books, 2012)Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017)Max Tegmark, Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, (London: Penguin Books, 2018)Date of recording: 8 October 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dr Benjamin Rhode, Research Fellow for Transatlantic Affairs and Editor of IISS Strategic Comments, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.Transatlantic relations have long been considered a relatively stable area of international diplomacy. However, the realities of the Trump administration in the US and Brexit in the UK have brought new volatility to transatlantic affairs. Dr Schake and Dr Rhode discuss the effects of this new instability in the relationships that have traditionally formed the foundation of the liberal world order. They also explore the emerging crisis in the US administration over President Trump’s call with President Zelensky of Ukraine and the rationality behind French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent overtures to Russia. Dr Rhode also highlights the importance of political culture as a means of understanding and predicting public reactions to domestic and foreign policy. Dr Schake and Dr Rhode agree that historical context often informs how national policy is formed and implemented, but also that popular perceptions around political issues, and even other nations, can change rapidly.Reading recommendations:George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four, (London: Secker and Warburg, 1949)Data Visualisation:Charles Joseph Minard, “Figurative chart of the successive losses in men by the French army in the Russian campaign 1812-1813.”, Tableaux graphiques et cartes figuratives (Paris, 1869), p.28Date of recording: 30 September 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Pierre Noël, Senior Fellow for Economic and Energy Security, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.The recent attacks on the Abqaiq oil processing facility removed half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production from the market instantly. In this episode, Pierre and Kori discuss the short- and long-term impact of these attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and what they may mean for both Saudi Arabia’s budget and regional energy security.Pierre also explores the persistent misconceptions that surround concerns over energy independence and dependency. For Pierre, assessing the energy markets that underpin energy supply is a far better means of measuring a country’s, or in the case of the EU, a continent’s energy security.Reading recommendations:Morris Adelman, The Economics of Petroleum Supply, (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1993)David JC MacKay, Sustainable Energy – without the hot air, (Cambridge: UIT Cambridge, 2009)Data Visualisation:Richard Newell and Daniel Raimi, ‘The New Climate Math: Energy Addition, Subtraction, and Transition’, Resources for the Future, (October 2018)IISS Event Recording:Kori Schake, Pierre Noël, Sarah Raine and Nicholas Redman, ‘Nord Stream II pipeline: purpose and implications’, IISS Events, (September 2019)Date of recording: 19 September 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in LondonTheme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Antônio Sampaio, Research Associate for Conflict, Security and Development, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.How to provide robust security in rapidly growing cities has been a persistent challenge for policymakers, especially as more people are expected to move into cities throughout the 21st century. In this episode, Antônio explores the case of Rio de Janeiro, a city that has experienced extreme violence for decades as a result of state neglect and gang activity. Although Rio remains one of the most violent cities in the world, Antônio details some of the successful policies that have brought back a degree of stability and state control in the favelas, unofficial suburbs that have been the traditional heartland of Brazilian gangs.Most importantly, the policy successes and failures that Antônio highlights in his research in Rio have important lessons and applications for urban security in other cities around the world, from countering cartels in Mexico to reintroducing state control in the re-claimed city of Mosul in Iraq.For Antônio, developing effective human-centric approaches to urban security is vital and should be considered of equal importance to wider national-level security sector reform and development efforts before, during and after conflict. Counter to many policymakers’ concerns, Antônio does not believe rapid urbanisation inherently leads to greater violence in cities. He warns that this belief is used to justify military-centric policy that increases police lethality but overlooks local political dynamics within cities. Reading recommendations:Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime and The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Illicit Order: The Militarised Logic of Organised Crime and Urban Security in Rio de Janeiro, (September 2019)David Kilcullen, Out of the Mountains: The Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla, (London: C. Hurst & Co., 2013)Benjamin R. Barber, If Mayors Ruled the World: Dysfunctional Nations, Rising Cities, (London: Yale University Press, 2014)Antonio Sampaio, ‘Before and after urban warfare: Conflict prevention and transitions in cities’, International Review of the Red Cross, Vol. 98, No. 1, April 2016, pp. 71-95Favourite data visualisation:The Atlas of Urban Expansion, UN HabitatKarachi, The Atlas of Urban Expansion, UN HabitatDate of recording: 6 September 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in LondonTheme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Amanda Lapo, Research Analyst for Defence and Military Analysis, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.The political and economic crisis in Venezuela has caused a humanitarian emergency, with millions leaving the country. Amanda and Kori discuss the internal and international dynamics that have enabled the Maduro regime to survive despite US sanctions, huge public protests and economic collapse. In the episode, Amanda assesses Russia’s support for the Maduro regime to date and the wider impact recent military agreements between Russia and Venezuela may have on regional security. Kori and Amanda also discuss how the Maduro regime has ensured the loyalty of the Venezuelan military through economic incentives and Cuban assistance. Amanda reinforces the extent Maduro insiders have been disconnected from regular Venezuelan citizens and warns external intervention would likely only exacerbate such differences. Reading recommendations:Michael Reid, Forgotten Continent: A History of the New Latin America, (Yale University Press, 2017)Eduardo Galeano, Open Veins of Latin America: Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent, (Monthly Review Review, 1971)Amanda Lapo and Antônio Sampaio, ‘Why Venezuela’s military will be key to any transition of power’, IISS Analysis, January 2019Favourite data visualisation:Military Balance +, ‘Venezuela’s Defence Spending (% of GDP)’, The International Institute for Strategic StudiesDate of recording: 20 August 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in LondonTheme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dr Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Research Fellow for Defence Economics and Procurement, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.The humanitarian crisis in Yemen as a result of the Saudi-led intervention, has brought unprecedented pressure on many European states to change their policies toward the export of military equipment. Lucie and Kori begin this episode with a discussion on why some European states have been more resistant than others in adopting these changes. Their conversation expands to recent efforts to develop European defence cooperation. In a challenge to the conventional wisdom on the topic, Lucie suggests that it is in fact France that is the blocking state in furthering intra-European arms development due to its stance on arms exports. Finally, Lucie explains the ground-breaking research, co-authored with Meia Nouwens, that enabled a detailed assessment of China’s growing arms manufacturing industry. This research has become so influential that it now contributes to Defense News’ annual “Top 100 Defense Companies” list.Reading Recommendations:Keith Krause, Arms and the State. Patterns of Military Production and Trade, (Cambridge University Press, 1992)Lucie Béraud-Sudreau and Meia Nouwens, ‘Weighing Giants: Taking Stock of the Expansion of China’s Defence Industry’, Defence and Peace Economics, June 2019Aaron Mehta, ‘Chinese firms bump down Western companies on Top 100 List’, Defense News, July 2019Favourite data visualisation:William Geary, ‘Visualizing US and Russian arms transfers from 1950 through 2017’, Arms Sales: USA vs RussiaWilliam Geary, ‘Visualizing U.S. arms transfers from 1950 through 2017’, The United States of ArmsDate of recording: 8 August 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in LondonTheme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nicholas Crawford, Research Associate for Conflict, Security and Development, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.Nicholas and Kori discuss China’s lending to African states, touching on the IMF’s recently approved bailout package for the Republic of Congo and its implications. With a research focus on conflict and development, Nicholas is perfectly placed to explore China’s actions across the developing world within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. He debunks the idea that China engages in debt-trap diplomacy and deliberately lends money with the goal of trapping other countries, highlighting the economic and political risks that China faces in this situation. With debt levels rising in many countries across the world, Nicholas advocates for greater transparency from China in order to help provide more effective debt relief. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dana Allin, IISS Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy and Transatlantic Affairs and Editor of Survival, talks with Dr Kori Schake in this episode of Sounds Strategic.With the resignation of the British Ambassador to the US Sir Kim Darroch weighing heavily on the conversation, Dana and Kori discuss the impact of the episode on the UK’s ‘special relationship’ with the US, and how this may change in the future with a post-Brexit ‘Global Britain’, potentially separate from the EU.Dana challenges the assumed direct link between a state’s willingness to use force and its international credibility. As Kori and he explore, this issue came into stark focus with the aborted US strikes against Iran in retaliation for the downing of an unmanned surveillance drone in June 2019.As both an academic and editor of the IISS journal, Survival, Dana also speaks on his other area of expertise, the Israel–US relationship. As a topic covered in his latest book, Our Separate Ways: The Struggle for the Future of the US–Israel Alliance, Dana explains how the agreement around the liberal values that formed a key element of this historic alliance may come under considerable stress in the future.This episode also features a discussion on the enduring importance and impact of John Hersey’s 1946 classic, Hiroshima.Favourite Data Visualisation:‘Top 15 defence budgets 2018’, in IISS Military Balance 2019, (London: Taylor & Francis, 2019), p. 21‘Top 15 defence budgets 2014’, in IISS Military Balance 2014, (London: Taylor & Francis, 2015), p. 21Reading Recommendations:John Hersey, Hiroshima (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc, 1946)Dana H. Allin and Steven Simon, Our Separate Ways: The Struggle for the Future of the US-Israel Alliance (New York: PublicAffairs, 2016)Date of recording: 11 July 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Raine, IISS Senior Adviser for Geopolitical Due Diligence, speaks with Dr Kori Schake in this episode of Sounds Strategic.The dynamics underpinning the international order are in a time of flux. John and Kori discuss the shifting state of geopolitics, where economic interdependence both enables and restrains states and empowers companies to become globally influential.With a long and successful career in the UK Foreign Service, John is uniquely placed to understand and explain the historic shifts in global economic, political and military power that have been occurring over recent years. For John, economic power has taken on a new primacy in the modern age, with deeply interdependent countries competing at unprecedented levels within the economic system. The number and type of actors within this system have also multiplied, with John advocating a need for companies to develop their own foreign policies as their influence begins to surpass that of governments. The mass collection of data has played a crucial role in empowering corporations, and John and Kori discuss how this may affect our understanding of privacy and civil liberties. This is a truly engaging discussion on the future of geopolitics at a time of historic change.Date of recording: 4 July 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.Theme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ahead of the European Council meeting on 20–21 June, Sarah and Kori discuss what’s to come in the next few weeks. The outcomes of the negotiations taking place will have implications for the functioning of the Franco-German dynamics that are so critical for the European Union, Sarah explains. Looking at the world from a European security perspective, Sarah examines strategic competition in the Western Balkans, European strategic autonomy and the EU–UK relationship in the years ahead. Sarah and Kori discuss Sarah’s upcoming Adelphi book Europe’s Strategic Future – From Crisis to Coherence, as well as the enduring importance of the United Kingdom for the security of Europe. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.