Episode 19: Humanitarian crisis and regime survival in Venezuela

Amanda Lapo, Research Analyst for Defence and Military Analysis, joins Dr Kori Schake for this episode of Sounds Strategic.The political and economic crisis in Venezuela has caused a humanitarian emergency, with millions leaving the country. Amanda and Kori discuss the internal and international dynamics that have enabled the Maduro regime to survive despite US sanctions, huge public protests and economic collapse. In the episode, Amanda assesses Russia’s support for the Maduro regime to date and the wider impact recent military agreements between Russia and Venezuela may have on regional security. Kori and Amanda also discuss how the Maduro regime has ensured the loyalty of the Venezuelan military through economic incentives and Cuban assistance. Amanda reinforces the extent Maduro insiders have been disconnected from regular Venezuelan citizens and warns external intervention would likely only exacerbate such differences. Reading recommendations:Michael Reid, Forgotten Continent: A History of the New Latin America, (Yale University Press, 2017)Eduardo Galeano, Open Veins of Latin America: Five Centuries of the Pillage of a Continent, (Monthly Review Review, 1971)Amanda Lapo and Antônio Sampaio, ‘Why Venezuela’s military will be key to any transition of power’, IISS Analysis, January 2019Favourite data visualisation:Military Balance +, ‘Venezuela’s Defence Spending (% of GDP)’, The International Institute for Strategic StudiesDate of recording: 20 August 2019Sounds Strategic is recorded and produced at the IISS in LondonTheme music: ‘Safety in Numbers’ by We Were Promised Jetpacks

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