The Writ

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, and a panel of pollsters discuss the Conservatives' leading position in the polls, Pierre Poilievre's messaging strategies, vulnerabilities and risks he faces, and the effective political strategies used by the conservatives. They also analyze the challenges faced by the Liberals, the rise of the NDP in the polls, and predict the likelihood of a federal election in 2024.

This week, we chat about the latest polls that show the Liberals flirting with the NDP for third place. We also chat Liberal leadership polling and a little Ontario politics, plus we discuss the naming of the new female co-spokesperson of Québec Solidaire and sit down for a brief chat with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, male co-spokesperson of the party. We've got listener questions and, of course, The Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Four candidates for Ontario Liberal leadership, Bonnie Crombie, Nate Erskine-Smith, Yasir Naqvi, and Ted Hsu, discuss the dynamics of the race, potential outcomes, and recent events in Ontario politics, including Doug Ford's controversies. The hosts speculate on the impact of recent events on the liberal leadership race and the next election.

We discuss the latest polls that show the Liberals in deep trouble and how the carbon tax has become a vote loser for Justin Trudeau's government. We also chat about the OLP leadership race and new recruits for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and answer listener questions. Plus, Philippe comes up with his toughest quiz yet.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Discussion on the political landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador, including the rise of the Conservatives, the liberal's lead in voting intentions, and Mike Connors' new book on the Newfoundland Press Gallery. Analysis of the political dynamics in Newfoundland and Labrador, focusing on the provincial Liberal Party and Progressive Conservative Party. Exploration of the NDP's history, growth in Labrador, and the shifting voting patterns. Examination of affordability challenges, carbon tax exemption request, and potential outcomes of a political strategy in Newfoundland and Labrador. Highlighting the province's significance in battleground seats and its role in reelecting Justin Trudeau.

On this episode of The Numbers, Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss some troubling polling and fundraising numbers for the Liberals and wonder how they could possibly keep this up for another 23 months. Plus, there's a shocking new poll out of Quebec, listener questions and a quiz that puts me on the spot. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, discusses recent national surveys analyzing changes in voter support for each political party. Topics include the impact of undecided voters on the Liberal party, coalition building between Conservative and NDP, demographics and voting patterns of block voters in Quebec, profiles and strategies of political parties, home ownership rates in the conservative voter coalition, and recent changes in polling trends and conservative support.

This week, Philippe J. Fournier and I chat about some new polling numbers on Justin Trudeau's leadership and we dissect the NDP's prospects coming out of the convention, where Jagmeet Singh scored 81% on his leadership review. We also discuss just how much Teflon is coating Doug Ford and his Ontario PCs, and answer listener questions — including whether any party could win a landslide the size of John Diefenbaker's or Brian Mulroney's.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

It’s been an eventful few weeks since Parliament returned, as foreign affairs have injected themselves into our domestic politics. And last week, Manitoba held a historic election that could have some lessons for parties outside of the province.To break it all down, I’m joined again by the political pollster panel.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.And if you missed yesterday’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

We break down the results of the Manitoba provincial election and the Quebec byelection in Jean-Talon, as well as some new polling numbers out of Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador. We also answer listener questions (can the Conservatives ever win in Montreal?) and present our numbers of the week.To get access to the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes on Thursdays, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Starting next week, every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in The Writ Podcast feed) will be for members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe