The Writ
Ep. #112: A new Conservative voter coalition
Oct 27, 2023
David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, discusses recent national surveys analyzing changes in voter support for each political party. Topics include the impact of undecided voters on the Liberal party, coalition building between Conservative and NDP, demographics and voting patterns of block voters in Quebec, profiles and strategies of political parties, home ownership rates in the conservative voter coalition, and recent changes in polling trends and conservative support.
39:33
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Quick takeaways
- The Liberal Party has experienced a significant loss in support, with a third of previous voters now undecided and a split in remaining supporters favoring other parties, leading to a larger churn in their support compared to previous elections.
- The Conservative Party has managed to retain almost 90% of its past support and has successfully appealed to new voters, with 13% of their current coalition consisting of individuals who did not vote in the last election, thereby establishing a solid base of support and gaining traction.
Deep dives
Liberals losing support and facing voter churn
The Liberal Party has lost about a third of its past support, with 12% of previous voters now undecided. The remaining supporters are split, with 10% leaning conservative, 8% favoring the New Democrats, and 1% each going to the Greens, People's Party, and the Bloc. This represents a significant shift in voter loyalty compared to previous elections, with the Liberals experiencing a larger churn in their support.
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