Ep. #115: At year's end, where do Poilievre, Trudeau & Singh stand?
Dec 8, 2023
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Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, and a panel of pollsters discuss the Conservatives' leading position in the polls, Pierre Poilievre's messaging strategies, vulnerabilities and risks he faces, and the effective political strategies used by the conservatives. They also analyze the challenges faced by the Liberals, the rise of the NDP in the polls, and predict the likelihood of a federal election in 2024.
Pierre Poilievre's consistent messaging and focus on the economy have contributed to the Conservative Party's advantage in recent polls.
The Conservative Party's support among younger voters could be vulnerable if they start considering other issues or identities, but their focus on key issues like housing and cost of living helps maintain their position.
The declining polling numbers for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party are largely driven by economic frustration, presenting a leadership dilemma for the party.
Deep dives
Pierre Pauliev's stability in the polls and the Conservative Party's lead
Pierre Pauliev, leader of the Conservative Party, has established stability in recent polls, consistently leading with support ranging from 40 to 42 percent. This stability is attributed to his consistent messaging and disciplined approach. The slow response from the Liberals and a lack of economic good news, as seen in Minister Freeland's economic statement, have contributed to Pauliev's advantage. While there may be some fluctuation, Pauliev's focus on the economy and his ability to capture the attention of an audience looking for economic solutions bode well for the Conservative Party.
Vulnerabilities for Pierre Pauliev and the Conservatives
Although Pierre Pauliev's numbers have been steady, there are potential vulnerabilities for the Conservatives. Many of their supporters are younger voters who may have different issue sets and could drift back and forth between parties. Additionally, if these voters start considering other issues or identities, there is a risk that support for the Conservatives could wane. However, Pauliev and his team have been innovative in their messaging and are focused on key issues such as housing and cost of living. While there is a risk of overconfidence, the Conservatives remain well-positioned overall.
The challenges faced by Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party
The polling numbers for Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party have been declining, with the economic situation being a significant factor. There is growing frustration among Canadians, particularly on economic issues such as the carbon tax and housing costs. The recent interest rate hikes have exacerbated these concerns. The Liberals need to recognize the severity of the situation and diagnose the problems they are facing. The economic situation, largely out of their control, poses a considerable challenge. Finding ways to address the issues facing people with mortgage renewals and making things easier for them in the short term may be essential.
The leadership dilemma for the Liberals and the future of Justin Trudeau
The current situation presents a leadership dilemma for the Liberal Party. Changing leaders may not necessarily solve their problems, especially if it is the economic frustration that is driving the decline in support. The risk of changing leaders and engaging in a leadership race could potentially lead to a protracted fight and divisions within the party. While Trudeau's approval ratings have been declining, his campaign skills and ability to connect with voters during an election are still recognized strengths. The Liberals may need to focus on addressing the underlying issues, identifying the public's perception of Trudeau, and strategizing for the future.
Opportunities and challenges for the NDP
The NDP has shown potential for growth, with polls indicating they are within range of the Liberals. While they faced a setback with a recent by-election loss, the party's opportunity lies in positioning themselves as the progressive alternative to Doug Ford's PC government in Ontario. They need to appeal to voters who want change and present themselves as the voice of the opposition. However, the party also needs to address financial and organizational challenges and build a war chest to support their goals. The outcome for the NDP will depend on their ability to create leverage and demonstrate their effectiveness as a progressive force.
The impact of Bonnie Crombie's leadership on the Ontario Liberal Party
The election of Bonnie Crombie as the leader of the Ontario Liberal Party offers a potential advantage for the party. Crombie's name recognition, anchor in Mississauga, and appeal to older women could help the party break free from the neck-and-neck race with the NDP and present a stronger opposition to Doug Ford's PC government. Crombie's experience and ability to raise money also provide a good starting point for the party's long journey toward the next provincial election. However, the Liberals will need to rebuild organizationally and operationally after two challenging electoral cycles.
Things have changed a lot over the last 12 months. At the beginning of 2023, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were still deadlocked. Now, the Conservatives have a decisive lead as the Liberals try to figure out where to go from here.
Plus, Bonnie Crombie has become the new leader of the Ontario Liberals. What impact will that have on politics in the province?
This week, I’m joined again by a panel of season political pollsters.
Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.
Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.
James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode will be in this feed next Friday.
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