On this special episode of The Numbers, we port over a favourite from The Writ Podcast to mark the third edition of what is now our annual holiday tradition: the Over/Under Contest!Yes, for the third time we throw caution to the wind and make our predictions for the political year to come. Plus, we see who has the most egg on his face from last year's guesses.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government survived another year but its prospects have never looked worse, as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives took a commanding lead in the polls over the summer and have never looked back.In the end, 2023 could prove to be a turning point in the political careers of both leaders, regardless of who wins the next election. It’ll either be the year when Poilievre solidified his status as the prime-minister-in-waiting — or the year when Trudeau hit rock bottom before turning things around.So, what did we learn about each of the major parties in 2023 and what questions about them are we waiting to be answered in 2024?To answer that, I’m joined this week by Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star and the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The latest Abacus Data poll shows a nine-point swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives over the last few weeks, closing the gap to (a still wide) 10 points. Is it a mirage or a Christmas miracle for Justin Trudeau and crew?We also discuss some provincial polling out of the Prairies, an upcoming byelection in Toronto and answer listener questions.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, and a panel of pollsters discuss the Conservatives' leading position in the polls, Pierre Poilievre's messaging strategies, vulnerabilities and risks he faces, and the effective political strategies used by the conservatives. They also analyze the challenges faced by the Liberals, the rise of the NDP in the polls, and predict the likelihood of a federal election in 2024.

This week, we chat about the latest polls that show the Liberals flirting with the NDP for third place. We also chat Liberal leadership polling and a little Ontario politics, plus we discuss the naming of the new female co-spokesperson of Québec Solidaire and sit down for a brief chat with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, male co-spokesperson of the party. We've got listener questions and, of course, The Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Four candidates for Ontario Liberal leadership, Bonnie Crombie, Nate Erskine-Smith, Yasir Naqvi, and Ted Hsu, discuss the dynamics of the race, potential outcomes, and recent events in Ontario politics, including Doug Ford's controversies. The hosts speculate on the impact of recent events on the liberal leadership race and the next election.

We discuss the latest polls that show the Liberals in deep trouble and how the carbon tax has become a vote loser for Justin Trudeau's government. We also chat about the OLP leadership race and new recruits for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and answer listener questions. Plus, Philippe comes up with his toughest quiz yet.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Discussion on the political landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador, including the rise of the Conservatives, the liberal's lead in voting intentions, and Mike Connors' new book on the Newfoundland Press Gallery. Analysis of the political dynamics in Newfoundland and Labrador, focusing on the provincial Liberal Party and Progressive Conservative Party. Exploration of the NDP's history, growth in Labrador, and the shifting voting patterns. Examination of affordability challenges, carbon tax exemption request, and potential outcomes of a political strategy in Newfoundland and Labrador. Highlighting the province's significance in battleground seats and its role in reelecting Justin Trudeau.

On this episode of The Numbers, Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss some troubling polling and fundraising numbers for the Liberals and wonder how they could possibly keep this up for another 23 months. Plus, there's a shocking new poll out of Quebec, listener questions and a quiz that puts me on the spot. To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, discusses recent national surveys analyzing changes in voter support for each political party. Topics include the impact of undecided voters on the Liberal party, coalition building between Conservative and NDP, demographics and voting patterns of block voters in Quebec, profiles and strategies of political parties, home ownership rates in the conservative voter coalition, and recent changes in polling trends and conservative support.