The Writ

A new poll shows the NDP within spitting distance (yes, Philippe, that's a real thing) of the Liberals in the race for second place. What should we make of it — and some recent controversies that are dogging the Liberals? We also discuss new poll numbers showing the Ontario Liberals well ahead of the NDP for runner-up status behind Doug Ford, as well as a survey on the race to become the leader of the opposition Alberta New Democrats. We answer questions on federal fundraising, the split on the right in B.C. and the linguistic split in New Brunswick. Then, Philippe quizzes me on some provincial premiers.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week on The Writ Podcast, I’ve reconvened the panel of political pollsters to discuss all the latest in federal politics, including Jagmeet Singh’s threat to pull out of his party’s agreement with the Liberals, the recent candidate nominations for the Conservatives and whether or not it’s a good idea for Justin Trudeau to try to tie Pierre Poilievre to Donald Trump. We also set expectations for the upcoming byelection in Durham.Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara, was director of research and advertising in Justin Trudeau’s prime minister's office and the Liberals’ pollster during the last three federal election campaigns.Andrew Enns is executive vice-president at Léger. He conducted polling for the Conservatives in Stephen Harper’s last three campaigns and has polled for provincial conservative parties across Canada.James Valcke is director of research and strategy at Viewpoints Research, which has polled for the NDP in elections across the country. He has worked on various central campaigns, including Jack Layton's breakthrough 2011 election.THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, Philippe and I chatted about the Liberals’ polling woes and the latest survey that puts the Saskatchewan NDP in first place. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week, Philippe and I discuss the latest threats from the New Democrats to rip up their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals and just how likely it is that this could lead to the fall of the government. We also chat about new polls on how Canadians view support for Ukraine and where the parties stand in Quebec as chatter increases on the possibility of a third referendum on sovereignty. Plus, we discuss an upset byelection win in P.E.I., answer listener questions and I put Philippe to the test with another Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.You can find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts! You can also find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Provincial byelections are happening in Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island, but those aren’t the only votes that are being chased in Atlantic Canada. With the polls suggesting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have made significant gains in the region, candidates are beginning to emerge as contenders to take on Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, who used to be the dominant force in Atlantic Canada.To update us on the latest in provincial and federal politics in their two provinces, I’m joined this week by Mike Connors, co-anchor of the NTV Evening Newshour and former legislative reporter, and Teresa Wright, freelance political journalist and former national reporter with the Canadian Press and Global News.(If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.)In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Are cracks starting to show in the Liberal caucus — and can more of them be prevented if the polling numbers don't improve? Philippe and I also discuss views on health care, new numbers out of Alberta and dive into the listener mailbag. What happens if Donald Trump is unable to be the nominee? And what about the Conservatives' new star recruit in British Columbia?To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This episode of The Writ Podcast discusses the upcoming elections in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick. Topics include the rebranding of the BC Liberals, the positioning of the NDP, the state of the Green Party, challenges for the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals in New Brunswick, brand and popularity challenges for the Liberal Party, electoral prospects of the Green Party, and issues such as healthcare and housing.

After polls suggested the gap was narrowing a little between the Liberals and the Conservatives, a new survey puts the Conservatives back into landslide territory. We also discuss new polling on Canadians' views on the U.S. election, some upcoming byelections in Atlantic Canada and answer listener questions. Finally, Philippe gets his revenge on me for last week's Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On this special episode of The Numbers, we port over a favourite from The Writ Podcast to mark the third edition of what is now our annual holiday tradition: the Over/Under Contest!Yes, for the third time we throw caution to the wind and make our predictions for the political year to come. Plus, we see who has the most egg on his face from last year's guesses.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

Justin Trudeau’s minority Liberal government survived another year but its prospects have never looked worse, as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives took a commanding lead in the polls over the summer and have never looked back.In the end, 2023 could prove to be a turning point in the political careers of both leaders, regardless of who wins the next election. It’ll either be the year when Poilievre solidified his status as the prime-minister-in-waiting — or the year when Trudeau hit rock bottom before turning things around.So, what did we learn about each of the major parties in 2023 and what questions about them are we waiting to be answered in 2024?To answer that, I’m joined this week by Stephanie Levitz of the Toronto Star and the CBC’s Aaron Wherry.In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The latest Abacus Data poll shows a nine-point swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives over the last few weeks, closing the gap to (a still wide) 10 points. Is it a mirage or a Christmas miracle for Justin Trudeau and crew?We also discuss some provincial polling out of the Prairies, an upcoming byelection in Toronto and answer listener questions.To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers (the episodes that are not in this The Writ Podcast feed) is for Patreon members only.As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.If you want to add The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres to your favourite podcasting app, you can find them at the links below:Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffresSpotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe