This episode of The Writ Podcast discusses the upcoming elections in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick. Topics include the rebranding of the BC Liberals, the positioning of the NDP, the state of the Green Party, challenges for the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals in New Brunswick, brand and popularity challenges for the Liberal Party, electoral prospects of the Green Party, and issues such as healthcare and housing.
Parties are preparing for the upcoming elections in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick.
PCs aim to hold on to their current seats and secure victory through incumbency advantage and potential divisions within the opposition.
Liberals target key urban centers to win seats and potentially form a government with Green Party support.
The Green Party focuses on holding current seats and making inroads in southern New Brunswick to increase their seat count.
Deep dives
PCs preparing for the election by nominating candidates
The PCs are currently in the process of nominating candidates for the upcoming election. They have already nominated 11 candidates, most of whom are incumbent PC MLAs. The party is looking to have more than half of their candidates in place by the time of the budget, suggesting they are keeping the option of an early election open. However, there are still divisions within the party, with some members expressing uneasiness about the socially conservative direction the party is taking.
PCs confident in their chances of winning
Despite the mixed public opinion and lower approval ratings for Premier Blaine Higgs, the PCs are confident in their ability to win the election. They currently hold 29 seats out of 49, and even with a lower popular vote, they could emerge with the most seats due to their vote efficiency. The party's goal is to hold on to their current seats and avoid dropping below the 25-seat threshold for a majority. They are banking on their incumbency advantage and potential divisions within the opposition to secure their victory.
Liberals focusing on key urban centers and potential vote splits
The Liberals, who currently have four nominated candidates, are targeting key urban centers in their campaign strategy. Their goal is to win seats in Moncton and possibly St. John and Fredericton, where they see potential vulnerability for incumbent PCs. While they aim to achieve a majority of seats, they are aware that even preventing the PCs from reaching 25 seats could enable them to form a government with the support of the Green Party. However, the Liberals also face challenges due to the liberal baggage at the federal level and potential vote splitting with the Greens.
Greens looking to hold current seats and make inroads in other areas
The Green Party, who currently hold three incumbents, is focusing on holding their current seats and making inroads in other parts of the province. They are seeking well-known candidates to attract voters and position themselves as contenders in areas where the PC incumbents may be vulnerable. They are particularly interested in southern New Brunswick, aiming to break through in cities like St. John and Moncton. Their success in these areas could raise their chances of increasing their seat count, but it remains to be seen whether they can achieve significant growth.
Challenges for NDP and People's Alliance
The NDP and People's Alliance face significant challenges in the upcoming election. The NDP has struggled with leadership changes and diminished finances, and many former NDP voters have shifted their support to the Green Party. The People's Alliance, who previously merged with the PCs but later started as a new party, have been relatively inconsequential since losing their MLAs. Both parties will face an uphill battle in gaining relevance and attracting support in the election.
Healthcare, homelessness, and housing as key election issues
Healthcare, particularly ER issues, homelessness, and affordable housing are expected to be significant issues in the election campaign. The current challenges in healthcare, such as ambulances offloading delays and staffing crunches, have come to the forefront in recent weeks. These issues, along with cost of living concerns, will be crucial in shaping the campaign discourse and influencing voter sentiment. Additionally, the internal divisions within the parties, particularly the PCs' socially conservative shift, may impact the voting choices of moderate and progressive voters.
Premier Blaine Higgs' State of the Province speech and the upcoming budget
Premier Blaine Higgs' State of the Province speech and the upcoming budget in March will provide insights into the government's priorities and messaging leading up to the election. Higgs has said that he doesn't typically present radical changes or spend significantly in an election year budget. How Higgs frames the state of the province and the commitments made in the budget will likely set the tone for the rest of the year leading up to the election.
Potential for an early election call
There is speculation about the possibility of an early election call, potentially after the budget in March, as the PCs continue to nominate candidates at a significant pace. The party's preparations suggest that they are open to the idea of an early election. However, Premier Higgs has not confirmed whether he would sign the nominations of five PC MLAs who broke ranks on the school LGBTQ pronouns issue, indicating a possible internal standoff that needs resolution leading up to the election.
British Columbia, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick are all scheduled to go to the polls in October, making 2024 an election year in all three provinces. While voting won’t take place for months, parties in these three provinces are preparing for their upcoming campaigns.
So, to keep you up to date on where things stand, I’ll be dipping into these three provinces periodically throughout 2024 on The Writ Podcast. To help me do that this week, I’m join by Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in Victoria, B.C., Adam Hunter, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Regina, Saskatchewan, and Jacques Poitras, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Fredericton, New Brunswick.
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
If you’re looking for this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, it is available for Patreon members here. The next regular episode of The Numbers will be in this feed next Friday.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe
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