The Capital Cycle Podcast

Charles Carter, a European equities portfolio manager at Marathon Asset Management, contrasts AI’s debt-fueled promises with the tangible cash flows of overlooked European companies. They explore IREN’s neocloud ambitions, NVIDIA’s financing web, and the risks of rapid hardware obsolescence. Carter also highlights DCC, Irish Continental, and easyJet as value opportunities hiding in plain sight.

Rob Anstey, US Equities Portfolio Manager at Marathon Asset Management, explores the overlooked world of US timberland. He and Edward Chancellor examine attractive valuations, housing-driven lumber shortages, Canada’s tightening supply, and the long biological cycle of forests. They also discuss Rayonier and Weyerhaeuser, alternative land uses, and timberland’s potential as an inflation hedge.

Ian Deacon, a portfolio manager focused on US large-cap and global equities, discusses listed derivatives and exchange market structure. He explains how exchanges profit from volatility and fee mechanics. He weighs threats from new rivals and lighter regulation. He highlights ICE and CME advantages like clearing netting, growth optionality, and plans for AI compute futures.

Yixuan Yang, an Emerging Markets equities analyst at Marathon London, discusses the auto sector and why auto glass stands out. They contrast a troubled auto capital cycle with the attractive dynamics of Fuyao Glass. Short takes cover EV-driven glass value, Fuyao’s scale and R&D edge, competitive and trade risks, and why valuation and shareholder returns look compelling.

Justin Hill, a Japanese equities portfolio manager at Marathon Asset Management, explains why Japan’s corporate world is suddenly returning capital to shareholders. He discusses Tokyo Stock Exchange reforms, a surge in buyback announcements, high-profile cases like Hitachi and Japan Post, and why many non-financials now have room for more repurchases.

Tytus Zurawski, a European equities analyst at Marathon London with steel and macro trade expertise. He discusses deglobalisation and how state-led shifts reshape capital cycles. He breaks down ArcelorMittal’s global footprint and regional competitiveness. He examines China’s demand shock, chronic oversupply, trade policy effects and rising policy activism.

Tom Wharram, a North American equities analyst at Marathon Asset Management, explains how indexation and liquidity quirks reshape US markets. He discusses how large-cap concentration and low free-float liquidity can amplify flows and valuation pressure. The conversation highlights pro rata buying, shifting price discovery, and why passive flows may change who sets market prices.

Laura Fyfe, an Emerging Markets Analyst focused on Chinese industrial and tech competition. She discusses China’s low-cost AI models like DeepSeek R1 and their market impact. She covers Chinese breakthroughs in autos, robotics, memory chips, and EUV ambitions. She contrasts true moats with capital-replicable advantages and outlines how to respond to rapid, cost-driven disruption.

Alex Duffy, an Emerging Markets Fund Manager at Marathon London, offers expertise on tech and real assets. He discusses AI-driven capex reshaping markets and crowding effects on construction, commodities and investment. He warns of concentration risks in semiconductors and shows how AI demand is reweighting emerging markets. He highlights overlooked opportunities in Chinese real estate and basic materials.

Charles Carter, European equities portfolio manager at Marathon Asset Management, shares his take on AI’s winners and losers. He discusses tech manias, parallels with the 1990s TMT boom, and whether markets misjudge long-term losers. Conversation covers data-rich firms like Relx and Experian, the vulnerability of online classifieds, and how proprietary datasets may gain value with AI.