The Capital Cycle Podcast

Robert Anstey, a portfolio manager at Marathon Asset Management, shares his insights on the intriguing cardboard box industry. He explains the 'Boxing Day Gift' thesis and its significance to US manufacturers. The discussion dives into the industry's shift towards prioritizing profitability over volume, the impact of e-commerce on demand, and long-term growth projections. Anstey also highlights the consolidation among major firms and how the Smurfit Westrock merger could create significant synergies, showcasing the evolving landscape of this seemingly mundane yet vital sector.

Kai Chen, an Emerging Markets Analyst at Marathon Asset Management, dives into the rise of Kanzhun’s online recruitment platform, Boss Zhipin. He explains the concept of network effects and its role in locking in users. Kai contrasts the early monetization of Boss Zhipin with Australia's Seek, showcasing its growth potential. He also highlights innovative features like direct chat and AI recommendations that set Boss Zhipin apart. Lastly, he discusses the company's balance sheet and the investment case, despite regulatory risks.

Stanley Churn, an opportunistic financer, leads a satirical board meeting about AI funding challenges. Joined by Samantha Stretch from Pons AI, they discuss a staggering $1.4 trillion commitment comparable to Spain's GDP. Ernest Glum questions the sustainability of their cash flow and the risks involved, exposing the cracks in their grand ambitions. Amidst jargon-filled strategies and playful banter, the trio navigates topics like government partnerships and IPO projections while humorously confronting the skeptics in the room.

Ben Slingsby, a European analyst at Marathon Asset Management, dives into the allure of European power networks, illustrating their status as attractive monopolies. He connects the surge in AI data centers to rising electricity demand and stresses that quality managers often overlook utilities due to perceived risks. Countering these concerns, Ben argues for the stability of regulated returns compared to tech investments. He also discusses the electrification megatrend, notable stock picks like National Grid and Iberdrola, and why now is the ideal time to invest.

In a deep dive with Laura Fyfe, an Emerging Markets analyst at Marathon Asset Management, listeners explore the shifting landscape of capital cycles and investment opportunities. Laura highlights the pitfalls of overspending in tech, particularly among Chinese giants, and emphasizes the appeal of emerging market stocks with low capital intensity. She shares insights on promising new holdings like China Resources Land and Millicom, all while contrasting their cash flow potential against the hype surrounding hyperscalers and AI investments.

In this insightful discussion, Charles Carter, a European Portfolio Manager at Marathon with expertise in capital cycles, dives deep into the frenzy surrounding AI investments. He highlights the potential dangers of over-investment fueled by market hype. Carter shares striking projections of trillions in spending and questions whether such lofty revenue expectations can be met, drawing parallels to the dot-com era. He examines the balance between long-term dominance and short-term fear among tech leaders, revealing the motivations driving the current AI capital rush.

Tom Wharram, a North American analyst at Marathon Asset Management, dives into the strategic inspiration behind Richelieu Hardware, highlighting its niche in the cabinet-making sector. He reveals how the book 'The Long Tail' influenced the CEO’s approach to targeting niche markets, supported by democratized production and distribution. Wharram discusses Richelieu's extensive SKU range and supply-chain efficiency. He also addresses current market challenges like the housing downturn and explains why the company remains a compelling investment, showcasing the CEO's visionary leadership.

Kai Chen, an Emerging Markets Analyst at Marathon Asset Management, shares insights on China's evolving real estate landscape. He discusses the drastic changes driven by government policies aimed at reducing overleveraging and how these have affected home prices and developers. Chen draws parallels with historic downturns in Japan and the U.S., highlighting resilience factors and crucial market dynamics. He also illuminates the issue of overbuilding in lower-tier cities and showcases a successful project in Chongqing, challenging negative perceptions of the sector.

Robert Anstey, a North American Portfolio Manager at Marathon Asset Management, delves into the lucrative world of waste management. He highlights the investment potential in overlooked, cyclical businesses, especially amidst stagnant waste volume growth. Anstey discusses the strong performance of municipal waste stocks and sheds light on the risks tied to environmental changes and regulatory scrutiny. The conversation also examines growth prospects in the energy sector from waste, showcasing the profitability of strategic investments in this niche market.

Laura Fyfe, an Emerging Markets Analyst at Marathon, shares her insights on the turnaround of Greek banks. She explores the evolution of the sector, from its troubled past to newfound profitability thanks to favorable regulatory changes. The conversation delves into the reliability of capital ratios, including concerns about deferred tax credits. Fyfe also discusses the influence of the Greek government on banking, weighing potential risks against emerging opportunities for investment. Overall, she highlights the promising outlook for the National Bank of Greece.