The Capital Cycle Podcast

Jordane Guillot, an investment analyst at Marathon Asset Management, dives into Dassault Systèmes, a leading French technology firm. He discusses the company's current valuation challenges while highlighting its crucial role in industrial design. The conversation covers unique capital cycles in engineering software and strategic acquisitions that bolster market position. Guillot also addresses the impact of the shift from license-based to subscription models and the significance of advancements like virtual pre-testing in drug development.

Laura Fyfe, an emerging markets analyst at Marathon Asset Management, dives into the potential of smaller capitalization investments that are currently overlooked. She shares insights on how market concentration favors a few major players while revealing lucrative opportunities in countries like South Africa and Mexico. Fyfe discusses lesser-known companies like AVI and Gruma, highlighting their strong governance and growth potential. The conversation emphasizes the value of exploring undervalued markets as alternative investment avenues, contrasting them with more saturated regions.

A look back at how the investment banking species has evolved into its modern day form of alternative investment manager. The story is told through the career of Stanley Churn, Marathon’s satirical archetype of an investment banker.Presented by Edward Chancellor with Charles Carter, Portfolio Manager Europe Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kai Chen, an Emerging Markets Analyst at Marathon Asset Management, sheds light on the high-stakes gamble of AI investments. He discusses the slow revenue returns despite massive funding and the job displacement risks posed by generative AI. The conversation also addresses the limitations of large language models and the rising costs of AI development. Chen emphasizes the intense competition in the AGI race and the potential for monopolies, cautioning investors about the uncertain future and sustainability of capital inflows in the AI landscape.

Robert Anstey, a US Portfolio Manager at Marathon Asset Management, delves into the intriguing world of small-cap stocks. He challenges the notion of investment categories, advocating for a nuanced approach to capital flow analysis. The conversation highlights the success of BioRad Laboratories in a consolidating industry, showcasing its innovative edge. Anstey also discusses profitability challenges in the sector, suggesting that current market conditions may unveil significant investment opportunities. Expect insights into hidden value and long-term growth prospects!

In this enlightening discussion, Alex Duffy, Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets at Marathon Asset Management, shares his insights into the divergent landscapes of China and India. They delve into India's booming retail investor base and the robust performance of mid-cap stocks. Duffy warns about potential market risks in India and emphasizes careful investment strategies. In contrast, he highlights China's struggles with oversupply and stagnant returns, urging investors to prioritize corporate governance and well-managed companies for future opportunities.

Bill Arah, founding partner of Marathon Asset Management and a Japan investment expert, shares fascinating insights into Japan's evolving corporate landscape. He discusses how shareholder interests are gaining traction, which is reflected in increased M&A activity. Arah highlights the shift from employee-centric management to a focus on shareholder value. He also analyzes the implications of Japan's changing monetary policy and the burgeoning potential of companies like Shiseido, while addressing challenges in the defense sector.

Toma Kobayashi, Portfolio Manager Japan at Marathon Asset Management, dives into Japan's corporate governance reforms through the lens of the Olympus scandal. He discusses how the scandal reshaped shareholder value and corporate practices. The conversation explores Olympus' shift to core competencies, its leading role in gastrointestinal endoscopy, and strategic share buybacks to enhance shareholder value. Kobayashi highlights promising investment opportunities stemming from corporate restructuring and Olympus' strong profitability and valuation.

Charles Carter, a European Portfolio Manager at Marathon Asset Management, dives into the tumultuous history of the European telecom sector. He discusses the pitfalls of inflated valuations and the struggle of companies like Vodafone amidst regulatory challenges. The comparison with the more consolidated US market highlights the difficulties faced by European firms. Carter shares insights from Marathon's investment experience with KPN, emphasizing how market dynamics and regulation hinder profitability, raising questions about the sector's future viability.

In this discussion, Robert Anstey, a Portfolio Manager at Marathon with expertise in US small and mid-cap stocks, dives into the current surge in artificial intelligence investments and its environmental implications. He critiques traditional AI investment strategies and highlights the transformation of big tech from capital-light to capital-intensive models. Anstey also addresses AI's growing energy needs and the challenges posed by increased consumption, advocating for sustainable solutions in the tech industry.