The Capital Cycle Podcast Boxing Day Gift
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Dec 23, 2025 Robert Anstey, a portfolio manager at Marathon Asset Management, shares his insights on the intriguing cardboard box industry. He explains the 'Boxing Day Gift' thesis and its significance to US manufacturers. The discussion dives into the industry's shift towards prioritizing profitability over volume, the impact of e-commerce on demand, and long-term growth projections. Anstey also highlights the consolidation among major firms and how the Smurfit Westrock merger could create significant synergies, showcasing the evolving landscape of this seemingly mundane yet vital sector.
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Why 'Boxing Day Gift' Title
- Boxing Day refers to the day after Christmas with traditions of giving servants or distributing alms boxes.
- Robert used the seasonal reference to frame the investment as a 'Boxing Day gift'.
Consolidation Boosts Capital Efficiency
- The US containerboard industry has consolidated to five players controlling ~75% of the market.
- Consolidation enables managements to prioritise value over volume and improve capital efficiency.
Demand Fell Back To Pre-Pandemic Levels
- Cardboard demand has fallen back from pandemic peaks and is roughly at 2016 levels despite a larger economy.
- Weak housing turnover and a prolonged industrial slowdown explain much of the demand shortfall.