The Capital Cycle Podcast AI: Mad Maths?
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Sep 30, 2025 In this insightful discussion, Charles Carter, a European Portfolio Manager at Marathon with expertise in capital cycles, dives deep into the frenzy surrounding AI investments. He highlights the potential dangers of over-investment fueled by market hype. Carter shares striking projections of trillions in spending and questions whether such lofty revenue expectations can be met, drawing parallels to the dot-com era. He examines the balance between long-term dominance and short-term fear among tech leaders, revealing the motivations driving the current AI capital rush.
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Focus On Capital-Cycle Fundamentals
- Investors should assess AI through capital-cycle fundamentals like capital flows, industry structure, and ROI rather than technical jargon.
- Understanding participants' motives reveals whether the investment boom is rational or driven by fear and incentives.
Evaluate Economics, Not Technical Buzzwords
- Don't pretend technical mastery; instead analyse capital flows, industry structure, and ROI when evaluating AI investments.
- Assess participants' motives to judge whether investment patterns are economically sensible or driven by FOMO.
Trillions Of Dollars Are Being Committed
- Estimates for cumulative AI-related investment run into trillions from multiple banks, showing the scale of the build-out.
- These large headline numbers signal material capital commitment but do not guarantee proportional future profits.
