Supply Shock

Michael and Mark take a break today for the Thanksgiving holiday, and welcome Jack Farley from Forward Guidance onto the podcast for a special cross-over episode. This episode from Forward Guidance is with William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve.They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability.William White’s work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj__Academic papers referenced:"Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah"Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8"Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikqWilliam White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling:https://rb.gy/robwk2--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_the_margin, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:09) Looking Back At 2022(04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions(11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error"(23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models?(25:25) Algorand Ad(27:09) If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do?(40:43) The Debt Trap(46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake?(54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap(58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money(01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here(01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On the Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Grant Williams & Pippa Malmgren join the show for a discussion of "the end of magical thinking"."The end of magical thinking", a term phrased by Grant to describe the illusion cheap money allowed for in 2020/21 as markets ignored fundamental valuations and speculation became rampant. Now with inflation, and the Fed tightening at their fastest rate in 40 years to fight inflation, reality has set back in for investors and now we must take a hard look in the mirror to understand what the best ways to protect our portfolios is in this environment. --Follow Grant: https://twitter.com/ttmyghFollow Pippa: https://twitter.com/DrPippaMFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Referenced In The Show: Why Software Is Eating the World: https://a16z.com/2011/08/20/why-software-is-eating-the-world/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:53) The End of Magical Thinking(14:41) The End of Globalization(17:05) Human Nature Never Changes(26:43) Why Software Is Eating the World... Or Is It?(38:56) Circle Ad(40:16) The Fallout of The FTX Collapse(52:01) The Rules of The Game Have Changed(58:14) Navigating This New Environment--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark & Mike discuss the continued fallout of FTX. Genesis, the crypto prime broker, ran into liquidity issues during the week causing many yield providing platforms to reduce their yields to 0%. We discuss what this could mean for CeFi lending providers, and who it could effect next. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://onthemargin.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Juliette Declercq Founder of JDI Research joins the show for a discussion on the Fed tightening cycle.Contrary to many analysts, Juliette expects a soft landing in 2023 with the labor market remaining resilient as the Fed continues tightening. Juliette makes the case that inflation will continue to roll over throughout 2022 and into 2023, continuing the recent CPI & PPI prints that beat analyst expectations. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Juliette: https://twitter.com/juliettejdiFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:31) Preparing For A Soft Landing(04:54) Inflation(09:46) Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle(13:52) Powell Channeling His Inner Volcke(17:09) The Housing Market(23:16) Circle Ad(24:36) The Bullwhip Effect(31:33) Have We Reached A Bottom In Stocks?(44:06) Inflation In The US vs Europe--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark & Mike are joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research to discuss the fallout of FTX. Mike, Mark & Jim discuss the series of events leading up to the bankruptcy of FTX and how the events evolved throughout the week.--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital & Justin Bons Founder & CIO of Cyber Capital for a Bitcoin debate.Having opposing views on the long term sustainability of Bitcoin, Jordi & Justin debate if Bitcoin has long term staying power and discuss the value propositions of other cryptocurrencies. Does Bitcoin have utility, is it's long term security model sustainable, what are the pros and cons of Proof of Work vs Proof of Stake and is Bitcoin immaculate conception enough to warrant it's spot as the number one cryptocurrency. To find out, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jordi: https://twitter.com/gametheorizingFollow Justin: https://twitter.com/Justin_BonsFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:05) Jordi & Justin's Bitcoin Framework(05:29) Does Bitcoin Have Utility?(09:46) What Is Money?(17:12) Inflationary vs Deflationary Money(29:53) Bitcoin's Immaculate Conception(33:58) Bitcoin's Long Term Security Model(39:11) Circle Ad(40:31) Proof of Work vs Proof of Stake(49:03) Bitcoin's Blocksize Limit(1:02:25) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark & Mike discuss the Fed rate hike decision of 75bp. As markets interpreted the announcement as dovish and a catalyst for a small rally in risk assets, Powell's press conference walked back any dovish bias investors had. Powell made clear to markets, they had no intention of slowing down their tightening "until the job is done".All eyes remain on the labor market as an indicator for when the Fed's tightening will begin to materialise. The unemployment data came out as this episode was recorded so Mike & Mark break it down in real time. But to hear that, you'll have to tune in! --Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Darius Dale CEO of 42 Macro joins the show for a discussion on the Fed's tightening cycle.By tracking the effects of liquidity on financial markets, Darius shares his framework for assessing the current tightening cycle the Fed is embarked on in their quest to fight inflation. While 2020 and 2021 saw markets soar to new highs in a liquidity cycle & growth upturn, 2022 has seen the opposite as the liquidity cycle downturns. In order to understand the market cycle, you must first understand the liquidity cycle, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Darius: https://twitter.com/@42macroDDaleFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Referenced In The Show: Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle: https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/an-update-from-our-cios-progressing-through-the-tightening-cycle--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:57) The Liquidity Cycle(07:58) Where Are We In The Liquidity Cycle?(16:12) The Fed Is Looking In The Rear View Mirror(19:24) Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle(24:08) Circle Ad(25:27) Tracking The Inflation Cycle(34:17) Measuring Liquidity Using The GRID Framework(40:45) Final Thoughts: Darius' Outlook On Markets--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark & Mike discuss the sell-off in big tech as earnings and guidance disappoint. With Meta & Amazon down over 20% in after hours just what is big tech signalling to the rest of the market? We then discuss Meta's pivot to the metaverse, wether this is a good long term bet and what is next for big tech?Finally, we discuss what is happening in the Bitcoin mining industry as some mining firms announced being unable to repay their creditors. To hear all the top stories of this week, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Leland Miller CEO of China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on China after their 20th party congress.Markets plunged on Monday after Xi Jinping clearly signalled to the world a new era within China. Leland walks through the paradigm shift in China's growth model going forward and how this spills-over into politics, economics, business and everything in between. Expecting a "slower, healthier" level of growth going forward, Leland helps investors walk through the new landscape he has been identifying for many years to come, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Leland: https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBookFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction (03:06) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed(10:45) The Evergrande Fallout (15:02) Targeting "Common Prosperity" The New Social Contract In China(22:30) Circle Ad(23:50) China's Zero Covid Policy (29:38) Xi Jinping Signals A New Era For China(33:10) Chinese Markets Slide On Monday's Open (38:20) China vs U.S (43:52) The Strategic Importance of Taiwan (51:08) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Disclaimer: Scammers are impersonating Blockworks and replying to comments on some of our videos. Please be advised that we will NEVER reply to your comment asking you to contact us on whatsapp, telegram, provide investment advice, or solicit money from you. These are scam impersonator accounts and you should not respond to them.