Supply Shock

This week, Mark is back for the first On The Margin weekly roundup of 2023! What better way to kick off the new year than with an outlook for the year ahead in markets. As 2022 was dominated by central banks tightening in an attempt to tame inflation, how will these dynamics play out in 2023, and how will they impact asset prices from stocks, bonds, commodities and crypto. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Permissionless is the brainchild of Blockworks and Bankless. Over 5,500 people attended the inaugural event in 2022, making Permissionless the world’s largest DeFi conference. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when purchasing tickets using this link: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by one of Blockworks' very own research analysts Matt Fiebach for a deep dive on their most recent report "2022 Year End Review: Network Coverage, Layer 1s & 2s".Matt walks us through the top stories of the year from the Ethereum merge, to the Layer 1 wars, and the various narratives the year saw in crypto markets. We then deep dive into the contagion crypto experienced with 3AC, FTX and other CeFi lenders throughout 2022. Finally, Matt looks ahead to 2023, sharing with us his big calls for what lies ahead for crypto markets in the year to come, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Matt: https://twitter.com/MattFiebachFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research using this link: https://blockworks.co/get-research/--Referenced In The Show:2022 Year End Review: Network Coverage, Layer 1s & 2s: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/research/2022-in-review-network-coverage-layer-1s-and-2s--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:55) The Ethereum Merge(06:05) Narratives In Crypto(08:21) Layer 1s & 2s In 2022(12:35) The Investment Case For Layer 2s(19:01) The Cosmos Ecosystem(27:43) Alternative L1s: Solana, Avalanche & Aptos(42:35) Network Infrastructure: Oracles & Bridges(46:28) Matt's 2023 Outlook For Crypto--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jack Farley, host of Forward Guidance, welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that “transitory will die” and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as inflation stays high.Wang and Goncalves also discuss the housing market, quantitative tightening, yield curve inversions, and their outlook on risk assets.--Follow George Goncalves on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategistFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Forward Guidance On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3WDa6b5Follow Forward Guidance On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3hXQu2FFollow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by Brent Johnson CEO of Santiago Capital for a discussion on the macro forces that drove markets in 2022 and what to expect heading into 2023.The story of 2022 was the U.S Dollar says Brent, long known for his "Dollar milkshake theory". With the Dollar surging all throughout 2022, Brent walks through the effect it had on other markets from bonds, equities and Gold. Warning of the bear market rallies of 2022, Brent remains cautious on risk assets heading into 2023 as the Fed continues tightening financial conditions.Finally, Brent shares his outlook for 2023 where he expects more volatility, uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Sharing his view through the lens of The Fourth Turning, Brent highlights the most important factors to pay attention to in 2023 and beyond, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFundFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:16) The Macro Story of 2022(03:55) The Fed Will Continue Raising Rates Into 2023(06:33) Did The Fed Loose Credibility In 2022?(11:08) Everybody's Looking At The Fed, What About Other Central Banks?(16:01) What Is Happening With The BoJ?(26:15) We Are In The Heart of Triffin's Dilemma(32:29) The Fourth Turning(40:50) Brent's Big Calls For 2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In today’s episode of On The Margin, we bring on Jason and Santi from Empire to discuss our 2023 crypto thesis. We debate predictions on the Wallet Wars, ETH vs Bitcoin, the rise of insurance, app-specific vertical integration, the adoption of CBDCs, Coinbase vs DEXs, MEV as a business model and more!- -Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(02:30) Crypto’s 2022 Wrapped(12:18) The Bottom is in for Crypto, not for Equities(19:46) Kings of Spot & NFT Trading Will Lose Market Share(22:50) Stablecoins, DeFi’s Resurgence and Permissioned Protocols(28:10) Regulators are Coming, and the CBDC debate(33:31) MEV will be the Business Model for DeFi & Exchanges(42:13) No Industry Takes Off Without Insurance(48:57) A Market Bottom & the Value of Memes(52:44) Curve ad(54:00) ETH vs Bitcoin (spicy)(1:05:13) Miner Capitulation, Wallet Wars & Gaming(1:12:54) Vertical Integration, Privacy and Payments(1:19:13) The Rise of Professional Guilds- -Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Santi: https://twitter.com/santiagoroelFollow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitzEmpire links:Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2jSubscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprwFollow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepodOn The Margin links:Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3YGtdmlSubscribe on Apple: https://bit.ly/3BUZXhKSubscribe on Spotify: https://bit.ly/3hHY1m4Follow OTM: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/- -Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On the Margin, we are joined by Byron Gilliam, Blockworks' very own Newsletter writer for a discussion on top market events in 2022, and what to expect going into 2023.We begin by discussing the current bear market in equities and bonds where Byron highlights "this bear market is not that bad" compared to previous bear markets. With his experience as an equites trader, Byron shares his thoughts on the typical 60/40, what equities look reasonably priced after the corrections seen in 2022 and how inflation influenced the investing environment over the year.We then reflect on the crypto markets in 2022 and some of the CeFi deleveraging. Is this positive long term for the space, or could this hinder investor interest in the industry. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show:https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:06) This Bear Market Is Not That Bad(03:07) Is 60/40 Dead?(04:56) Is Inflation Secular, Or Will Transitory Be Proven Right?(07:37) Are Earnings The Next Shoe To Drop?(09:55) The Importance of Liquidity In 2022(12:24) In Defense of Arthur Burns(21:29) Could Market's Be Flat For A Decade?(26:32) Reflecting On Crypto In 2022(29:12) Crypto Will Be Great For Users, But Not For Investors(35:38) Does Crypto Really Need A New Bull Market?(38:04) Will CeFi Contagion Help Spur DeFi Growth?(43:38) Has Elon Musk Bitten of More Than He Can Chew With Twitter?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark & Mike discuss the continued FTX fallout as SBF was taken into custody in the Bahamas on Monday. The collapse of FTX left some investors fleeing from exchanges, particularly Binance, but when compared to previous withdrawal days, there was nothing out of the ordinary. We then go on to discuss Genesis and Tether as more potential risks crypto could face, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_... , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Blockworks just released a new podcast called 1000x! We're dropping the first episode here as we think you might want to add this podcast to the lineup. 1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg that dives deep into the macro and micro factors that represent the lifeblood of digital money and web3. In this episode, Avi and Jonah discuss how to think like a crypto trader. They explore how today's market compares to the 2018 bear, where to look for opportunities, the investment landscape post-FTX and our top investing frameworks. A new 1000x episode will drop on Empire's RSS feed and the 1000x YouTube channel every two weeks.- -Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:28) Why We Started 1000x(06:18) Today’s Market Compared To 2018(16:17) How To Think About Trading Markets(23:25) Market Structure Post-FTX(28:05) Managing Risks(36:30) Investing Frameworks(48:12) Crypto Is Here To Stay- -Follow Avi: https://twitter.com/AviFelmanFollow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyzFollow 1000x: https://twitter.com/1000xPodSubscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3Fw083ZSubscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprwGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/- -ResourcesGolden Treehttps://www.goldentree.com/Cumberlandhttps://cumberland.io/Avi's psychology of a market tweethttps://twitter.com/AviFelman/status/1595176484766883843- -Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

On today's episode of On the Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research joins the show to answer the question: "Have we hit the bear market low?". We start with David's view that the market is still overpriced and the overwhelming odds of a recession in 2023. He explains why the yield curve is the most important variable, what to watch in the bond market and how a consumer default cycle will play out. We then finish the discussion on supply-side inflation, why David expects deflation is on the horizon and what to expect next!--Follow David: https://twitter.com/EconguyRosieFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency which outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.--Referenced In The Show:Rosenberg Researchhttps://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Criseshttps://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/1137525754Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculationhttps://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/91360.Devil_Take_the_Hindmost--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:16) Have We Hit The Bear Market Low?(11:30) Will The Fed Break The Market?(21:10) What Does A Default Cycle Look Like?(29:26) When Will Reality Set In For Consumers?(37:26) Circle Ad(38:46) Has J Powell Over-Tightened?(44:54) Supply-Driven Inflation(52:54) Which Assets Get Bid First In A Recovery?(1:02:28) The US Outlook(1:05:39) People Don’t Learn From History--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark & Mike discuss the recent market rally and dive into wether this is a new bull cycle, or a classic bear market rally. We then discuss the Alameda venture capital portfolio that was released by the FT walking through the $5.4 Billion of investments on the excel spread sheet. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYuskoFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_the_margin , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.